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maxwellreid

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  1. So Greek lawmakers have passed the reform/austerity. At the risk of being cynical, would I vote yes, so that I would continue to get paid in Euros, or vote no and get my salary in Drachmas. Get the money, then drag their feet.
  2. Yes. here is what he has to say about the Germans, just to even it up http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2011/09/europe-201109
  3. This is a long but thought provoking article on the Greeks, by Michael Lewis. http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/gre...ng-bonds-201010
  4. Take your point, and am I extending it to think that the black economy is one of the pillars of southern Europe? However, this pillar gets disturbed when customers no longer want your goods or services, because of fear of the future and/or capital controls. If the Greeks hike the VAT, will they collect more or less in taxes. Maybe not if VAT is charged and then with held as the amounts become larger and larger.
  5. It's not whether Europe has a lot of gold stashed away (it does) or whether they have a great black economy, but whether their politicians can make a decision. They look like cartoon characters, think SouthPark
  6. Ah, those Europeans cannot for love or money make a decision. So, they dither on like an old Greek chorus. In 5 days they say they will make a decision. Ah, if only they could. The path of least resistance will be classed as a decision, I suppose. The world is watching this with tired eyes. SE Asia remembering their IMF dealings will know that Europeans will cut a deal, the sort they were never offered
  7. I guess, it's a case of degrees in order. Greece is a great country, but it ran up the bill with other countries. Now they want it back
  8. Well, it's 3 years later and the Euro's are still muddling. That's all they seem to know. Obama and the Democrats would like peace in the markets until after the US elections, so they will try to stop a Greek exit. So, the muddling continues until just after the US elections, that's if the US can play the puppeteer role? My guess is they can, given they are coming into a power vacuum (nobody wants to take responsibility for an exit) The solution imo is simply to print extra Euros for those countries that have their house in order. None for Greece. Hey, isn't that what they are doing? Greece ends up devalued, with maybe some debt forgiveness.
  9. The trend on sterling is down. Debtor countries that have have employed some form of "money printing" are having their currency debased. Are they happy with that? It appears so, better than wage reduction and/or inflation. However, it feeds into their economy as cost of imports rise. Attempts to gloss over that, might include substituting (cheaper?) horse meat for beef, watering down the whiskey etc.. The attitude of the UK population may be similar to the Germans of the Weimar Republic "a mark is a mark is a mark." That was followed by re-education, something they still remember. The Western world is in "gloss over" mode. Let's pretend it's all now ok, and hey, maybe it will be, here's hoping..... The Bernanke doctrine has been that we’re going to use monetary policy to deal with normal macro-economic concerns and then we’ll use regulatory policy to try to contain financial excess. And Jeremy Stein’s speech said, in effect, ‘I’m not sure that you’re always going to be able to take care of the financial excess with the regulatory policy.’ And in a key line, he said, ‘Raising interest rates is a way to get into all the corners of the financial markets that you might not be able to see or you might not be able to attack with the regulatory approach.’ http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/credi...ew?art_id=10763
  10. There are just too many weak willed (so called democratic) political power structures involved in the Euro. Each rotates to give a glimmer of hope, just enough to keep the ball in the air. When the people snap they will pick up the ball and go home. How could that translate? 1. Bank Run, conversion to goods and materials of all kinds except fiat money 2. Dictatorship from the Right 3. Dictatorship from the Left 4. Grassroots Protectionism/Nationalism etc - add your own The sham is that the solution is NOT going to come from a political body or country leader um, IMO
  11. After a number of years of Euro pollies and bureaucrats, trying to talk up the market regardless of reality, we should just snigger at Draghi and move on.
  12. The Germans strategy must include a plan for an exit from the Euro. A return to DM. Like Rogoff says in a debt crisis you can ignore what the polies say and look only at what their interests/drivers are. Sure, the DM would soar, their loans to Euro countries would look sick. However, they have been in the process of shifting those bonds back to the owning country. The German bonds are in demand, as if the Germans exit the Euro, then I as a PIIGF member would want Bunds (possibly make 50% on my money. In a crunch), this is what they may do. The real issue for the DM would be that Germany would stop enjoying a depreciated currency. You could look at them currently as as a sort of currency manipulator and that is why they want to keep the Euro. Lijfe is sweet in Germany, low unemployment, cheap money, growth. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-10/f...-be-better.html This would work better if it surprised the market and might happen immediately after the Greek election. They vote for less pain and the Germans exit
  13. Keynes ideas are under attack, although us Economics 101 guys were brought up on him. Talking in 1930 he said "But today we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." Whether you believe in austerity or stimulus, the delicate machine may already be beyond repair, whatever path is taken. Who's to blame? Is that important? If we can see who is to blame then we might get the delicate machine back on track. Well it's the world of derivatives, today still a 600Trillion dollar market. Dimon's not a banker but a punter. BTW the idea that we can understand the delicate machine, let alone fix it, may be beyond us. Keynes in that single quote sums up our problem. If you want to read him in context see: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Crash14.html
  14. The idea that those PIIGSFG countries with large bullion reserves would put those reserves up as collateral for EuroBonds is stretching the imagination. These euro's like hugging and kissing but aren't really that close and trusting - see history. Not to mention that those gold reserves would then have to be audited. Maybe they are like the gold smiths of olde, who did not necessarily have the gold to back the paper. Although given the German thoroughness, I would guess their reserves are correct to the ounce. UK is also probably correct as they have little, having sold half at $256 per ounce creating what is known in charting circles as "Browne's Bottom". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financi...Redemption.html
  15. It's possible that the only way Mr Market is going to be able to "talk" is thru currency. The politicians are moving at the old Euro pace... glacial. Mr Market is a snappier mover than that, he needs to express himself. He is being squeezed by QE in a kick the can down the road approach. However, the Euro could be his vehicle of expression. (I could buy that BMW). German exports would soar, maybe. US, Japan could then extend their own currency devaluation. A rush for hard assets could lead to that "crack-up boom".
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