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thekiwi

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Everything posted by thekiwi

  1. Well .... we have touched the magical $1 this morning ... and the buying is very very solid. I must admit I do understand what this company does, even tho' I trade technically, and it really doesnt make sense for the urgency punters seem to have at the moment in buying this up.
  2. thekiwi

    VID

    QUOTE (Gameboy @ Monday 15/11/04 06:39pm) QUOTE Now that makes for an interesting chart Kiwi, perhaps still resistance @ 35c. Grabbed a few near close. Yup ... gets interesting now. 34/35, as you point is a significant resistance point.... and it needed the volume yesterday to give it the slightest chance of getting through. Going to be worth watching today to see what happens. NOt so much at te OPen, but from about 1 hr onwards ... to see what the "real" participants" want to do with ERG. At the moment Im not holding, but its getting closer and closer ... and anything above 36 is going to be great stuff.
  3. thekiwi

    LLP

    PS. A weekly chart for comparison
  4. thekiwi

    LLP

    QUOTE (Financial Chatter @ Monday 18/10/04 04:51pm) Chart wise certaily looks to be recovering .... although might have a difficult time around 168. Additionally with a long legged DOJI pattern, this could suggest a reversal, especially with the proximity of chart resistance. Time will tell.
  5. thekiwi

    TYC

    In reply to: thekiwi on Saturday 13/11/04 12:01pm Well .... TYC just doesnt know how to stop http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif To now be above 58c resistance is HUGE, but closing at 59 ... just need to be weary. 58/59, as you can see from the chart is a very significant resistance point. 58 was hit 3 times and from which it reversed. It also failed as support back on 21 April. 59/60 area was also support area in March. Given that speed with which TYC has gone up, going to be interesting to see what happens around this 60c mark. The last 2 candles are certainly pretty bullish .....
  6. thekiwi

    BCL

    Well, maybe time for a pullbackj in BCL. * THe last 3 days has seen it run hard, with good volume, from 19 to 26.5 * Yesterday closed smack on 26c resistance * We have whats called a Doji star, signalling a possible reversal * Yesterdays candle also has a long top wick, indicating that whilst the Bulls gave it a go, they were dealt to by the Bears. All in all, I think its looking "likely" for a reversal today. Where to ... anyones guess, but the 23.5c support area would be good. The next few days trading will really set the scene for what BCL will do: If it pulls back today, but stays above 23.5 ... could go on up. If it pulls back today, and carries on down .. then it has some work yet to do to break its recent trend (this I feel is unlikely) Then of course, it could defy all probability and go up today ... time will tell.
  7. thekiwi

    GBG

    In reply to: jaded on Monday 15/11/04 06:15pm Certainly did. Been watching this and waiting for it to move since it failed at 7.5c resistance.... and boy did it move yesterday. For quite a while it was sitting nicely at 8.6/8.7 ... then whamoo things hit the fan. Going to be very interesting today to see if it holds above 10c... as thats quite a large psychological barrier.
  8. thekiwi

    HTA

    In reply to: Gameboy on Monday 15/11/04 03:55pm Yea ... was a good strong move, especially at the end of the day and close. Recent prevous intraday hi was also 37, but this time I expect it to carry on ... for starters ... just check the volume. http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  9. thekiwi

    MSP

    OK ... here is a rumour hot of the press. Apparently a Director in BQT has been told (by the board) to stop buying shares at market because with another Director flying back into the country on Fri, could be perceived as "dodgy". Make of it what you will.
  10. In reply to: lmorgante on Monday 15/11/04 12:20pm Yup ... still knocking on that 50/51 c resistance, and if it can close above this .. could really romp away.
  11. thekiwi

    AAH

    In reply to: LIVERPOOL on Monday 15/11/04 11:57am QUOTE Are we still in trading halt? Yes ...
  12. thekiwi

    AAH

    Peptech Settles with Centocor Australian biotechnology company, Peptech Limited has signed an agreement resolving its dispute with Centocor (a division of Johnson & Johnson, USA) over its licence arrangements for sales of Remicade®, a treatment for a range of important anti-inflammatory diseases including rheumatoid arthritis. The confidential resolution and subsequent mutually agreed amended agreements were executed by both parties on 12 November 2004. Peptech initiated formal arbitration proceedings against Centocor in September 2003 in an effort to resolve an ongoing licence dispute in relation to Peptech’s patents covering antibodies against tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF). Both parties have agreed to a settlement. Peptech Executive Chairman, Mr Mel Bridges said he was delighted that a satisfactory business resolution to the licence dispute had been reached with Centocor. “With this dispute resolved, Peptech can refocus on its strategy of building a strong and successful biotechnology company and, importantly, fast-track the development of number of exciting drug leads,†Mr Bridges said. While details of the settlement are confidential, Peptech undertakes to provide profit guidance for the 2004/05 fiscal year before the end of the 2004 calendar year. In light of the settlement, the Peptech board has undertaken to place the issue of dividends, or alternative shareholder returns that increase shareholder value, back on the board agenda. “The Board will consider the best interests of all shareholders when evaluating how to invest Peptech’s cash reserves and the ongoing revenues received from both the Abbott and Centocor settlements,†Mr Bridges said. Background Centocor commenced selling Remicade® in 1998 after receiving marketing approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1998. Since then Remicade® has become the market leader in anti-TNF based antibody therapeutic treatments. Tumour necrosis factor alpha is a natural hormone that contributes to inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s Disease when produced in abnormally high quantities in the body. Peptech focuses on the research and development of peptides and proteins in the areas of human pharmaceuticals and animal health. The company is positioning itself to become a globally recognised leader in biopharmaceutical development.
  13. Sydney - Monday - November 15: (RWE Australian Business News) - Tower Ltd today said it would proceed with the separate listing on the Australian Stock Exchange of its Australian Wealth Management businesses, originally announced on September 13. The decision to go ahead with the spinoff, subject to shareholder and court approval, followed a review by Caliburn Partnership Pty Ltd of the proposal. Tower chairman Mr Olaf O'Duill said, "The board believes the spinoff of Tower's Australian Wealth Management business would provide a more focused strategy for each separately listed entity." Under the proposal, Tower will transfer its Australian wealth management businesses, comprising Bridges and Tower Trust, into a new company, Australian Wealth Management Ltd (AWM), in exchange for about 120 million $1 shares in AWM and a cash payment of $130 million. These 120 million shares in AWM will then be transferred to existing Tower shareholders and, in consideration, an equivalent value of Tower shares held by existing Tower shareholders will be acquired and cancelled via a New Zealand court-approved scheme of arrangement, requiring shareholder approval. AWM will be listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and will undertake a capital raising of about 130 million, by way of a fully underwritten entitlements offer of additional shares in AWM to make the cash payment to Tower. Following the scheme and completion of the capital raising, Tower will have no equity interest in AWM. TOWER will use the $130 million proceeds received from AWM to provide additional capital flexibility in pursuing its strategies for growth and new business development. Detailed information regarding the scheme and capital raising will be provided to shareholders in early December. A shareholders' meeting to approve the scheme will be held in late January 2005 and the listing of AWM on the ASX and entitlements trading is expected to occur in February. Shares in Tower rose 1c to $2.18 on Friday.
  14. In reply to: yogi-in-oz on Sunday 14/11/04 04:57pm QUOTE Will be alert for EBR news on Monday and Friday 19112004 this week, as two short time cycles come into play. Yogi Can you maybe explain what this means?
  15. thekiwi

    PVA

    QUOTE (crowman28 @ Friday 12/11/04 06:10pm) Hi Crowman Here is the chart you asked for and a few observations: * The chart has fallen through key support at 134. On the 11th it looked briefly like it would turn here, bt the trading on the 12th really pushed through big time. * You asked for where a trailing ATR would be. Ive applied a 2ATR Chandalier to the chart. You can see an exit would have been triggered on Fri (131). A 2.4ATR would have a current stop at 128 * Up until the 12th PSD was loking nice for a bounce off support and further moves Nth. The trading on the 12th has occured on an increased volume and punctured support. I have a rule to look for 2-3 days backwards ... so this could be the case here. If you apply some Fib. retracements to the chart you get a 61.8 retracement at 130. Other than that ... this could really fall back to 123
  16. In reply to: Sagitar on Sunday 14/11/04 03:44pm QUOTE What do you make of this chart - breakout coming soon? Looking quite positive IMO Yea its looking good to see the low prices slowly hitting higher levels so we are converging around that 10c area. 10.5c is just big resistance for it at the moment and its going to take * A leaking of an announcement with the associated volue surge (ie 5+M shares) * An actual announcement to do the same. The good thing is that it seems that buying in at 10c is relatively safe (and I do like 10c shares http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif ) in that EBR seems to have good support 9.3 -> 9.8 (especially the 9.8 are) thereby limiting the downside, and once it jumps past 10c, any move immediately takes out resistance and could move fast ... plus a single tick is 5% http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
  17. In reply to: crowman28 on Sunday 14/11/04 12:35pm QUOTE Hi Kiwi, so your trailing stop is always 2 steps below the support level? Depends. If my stop isnt "near" any support levels, the trailing stop is "it". If the stop is like 1-2 ticks above a current support level, then I adjust it down. My reasoning is that the market has spken that "this price" is likely to hold because of the markets participants ... and hence there is a high probability that the price will reverse .. therefore I should stay in the trade. QUOTE ie, if support is at 69 cents, then when closing price is 67 cents, you exit immediately the next day?? If my Trailing stop says 70, and support is at 69, then yes .. a close at 67 would trigger an exit for me.
  18. QUOTE (crowman28 @ Sunday 14/11/04 12:29pm) QUOTE So your exit at 56 was because it hit your stop back then in October? Nope ... It was a case of getting bored http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif It opened strongly and I was watching at the time intraday ... and it got hammered with sellers ... so as soon as it went below the previous days hi it was almost certainly going to setup a reversal pattern ... so I exited at 56. The next day "should" have opened lowr, but it didnt ... and managed to get in at 54. In fact I was tempted to do the same again on the 20th ... a strong day prior and immediate weakness again. Thinking I had learnt my lesson, I obeyed my stop ... and watched pull all the way back to 55 ... just above my stop. Was heart breaking http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif QUOTE I think 67 cents is a reasonable exit, because if it drops back from 79 cents to 67 cents it is quite a substantial fall That in essence is exactly what an ATR based trailing stop is doing ... its exiting when the stock has moved "more than it normally would". QUOTE I see, you only use the closing price to decide whether it has hit your stop or not, good strategy, but I'll probably get a bit nervous waiting for the close once I knew it exceeded my stop. Yea ... just an aspect Ive added to my trading plan. It creates nervous times. QUOTE So your trailing stop will never go down, if the stock retraces isn't it? COrrect. A Chandalier based stop is always stuck to X ATR's from the recent HI ... and never goes backwards. If the price goes up, the exit moves up 3ATRs behind it.
  19. QUOTE (crowman28 @ Saturday 13/11/04 11:19pm) QUOTE so what is the trailing stop for HAV at present based on current data It depends on your trading style and how much heat you can take. Also depends on entry. For me, the longer a rade goes the more I relax the ATR multiple. For me Im using a 3ATR based on the close of the stock (and thus I use the close of the stock as my exit price), which for some might be too hard because if the pull backs it accomodates. Metastock allows you to create your own indicators, explorers etc, so yes .. I have written my own explorations to find me stocks, as well indicators to get me out. In the short term trades (until the stock gets moving) I use support/resistance ... but once Im in profit, I use a trailing stop like this. In this case you can see how it has kept me in the trade since effectively 40.5. I did have a brief exit at around 56 on the 7/10, with an entry the next day at 54. The reason for the exit was that the chart pattern being set up looked like a 2 candle reversal pattern (bullish engulfing or "outside day") ... but it was never confirmed on the next day, so I reentered ... fortunately. On the 1 Nov you can see how close I came to exiting ... and that is why I adjust my stop when at a support level. If it had closed below 57 ... I would have exited the trade. Currently my trailing stop is at 67, so really that is what I have in my mind as my "current profit ... I pretty much ignore the 79c close ... for now http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif Current support is 69, so if my trailing stop gets to just above that ... I'll adjust it down again ... until the trailing stop moves above it more. I'll have a look at PSD
  20. thekiwi

    MOY

    PS. A weekly chart to put the current resistance levels into perspective.
  21. thekiwi

    MOY

    QUOTE (Sirbernie @ Saturday 13/11/04 02:14pm) Yea ... WTE moving nicely now. Broke that 4c resistance level and then stalled, preictably, at 4.3. Once 4.3 was behind, it has romped away ... especially with that volume over 17m shares kicking in. To also be above 4.6 is awesome, so we now have behind us multiple levels of support. What I like is there really is very little indecision in the market with WTE, ie it opens at a price, and that is its low. It then closes at its hi. When it has a red candle day, its typically less than the previous day.
  22. In reply to: crowman28 on Saturday 13/11/04 07:38pm QUOTE Hi Kiwi, I still don't understand your theory of the trailing stop. Is it similar to the 30 day moving average? Is your stop always the same as 30 day moving average, or just above it? Sorry an ATR based trailing stop has nothing to do with a 30 day moving average. ATR = Average True range which is a measure of the stocks volatility. What it in essense is doing is say " on average the stock moves this much up or down", and therefore we set the stop just below this so that in theory we can avoid the whipsaws which can occur in a stocks movement .. and ride a trend longer. An ATR(15) would tell you the amount the price "should" move over a 15 day period. A typical trailing stop based on ATR be tied to the current price. A chandalier is tied to the most recent hi
  23. In reply to: catbear on Saturday 13/11/04 06:29pm QUOTE Your chart looks good! What charting package are you using? Do you use OBV indicators at all Its Metastock ... and I only use OBV when looking for divergences between it and price.
  24. QUOTE (crowman28 @ Saturday 13/11/04 01:12pm) QUOTE Hi Kiwi, just a matter of interest, how do you decide the red line (trialing stop)? This stock is very hard to trade, as the market depth is often quite misleading. The trailing stop in this case is a "Chandalier Exit". It is essentially a trailing stop base don multiple ATR's ... but instead of the ATR just following the price, this stop trails the highest hi (or close in my case). Of note also is that it never goes backwards. In terms of the market depth, use it to time your entry, but not to decide whether to enter or not. PS. I have as part of my trading plan, that if the trailing stop and a significant support are "together", then I artifically move the stop to be eblow the support level.
  25. In reply to: lmorgante on Tuesday 09/11/04 03:11pm I guess the two most important things Ive learnt in my years of investing are * Always set a stop loss * Never presume how high a stock can go. and a very close thrid is "ignore Market Depth " ... it tells you nothing worthwhile. Whilst I have no idea how high HAV can go, I'll ride it for as long as it continues to go up. THe last 3 days trading have been notable for their buying pressure ... lets hope it continues, as since the 4th, the increase in volume suggests it should. PS Yes .. the redline is my trailing stop ... can see how close we got at times .. and the pull backs are what make trading psychology difficult. http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif
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