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thekiwi

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Everything posted by thekiwi

  1. thekiwi

    MSP

    QUOTE (romaioi @ Sunday 23/01/05 06:41am) Hi romaioi Excellant analysis. Just too add one more feature is what is often called a Rising Three pattern. Its not a perfect reflection of this, but its pretty close. A rising 3 pattern is a continuation pattern that consists of 5 candles. The first candle is a long green candle, as we had on the 17th. It is then followed by 3 candles, usually smaller bodied and confined to the range of the initial green candles (between its hi' and low) The final candle is a long green candle again that opens at or above the close of the initial green candle and closes higher again. It works best in an existing uptrend, which we dont have ... but the psychology of the pattern is still valid. IF we have can now stay above the mid point of Fridays range, we will have further confirmation of the bullish nature of BQT. If BQT cant close above the 28c in the early part of the coming week, then BQT maye well reverse. YOu will see these "3 down days" in a stock often ... and to then be followed by a Bullish candle shows that the maket is favouring the BULLS and that the 3 down days lacked conviction. You can see this in the volume of each associated day. So lots of "IF's" http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif * We need to get above that 29/30c area. This is where the previous uptrend started from, and will really spark some interest. It also seems to be where the forums began focusing on "supposed contracts coming" ... oh it all sounds so familar. * Once above there, that will become support and we can target our next price level, this being, for me, 33c. Interesting times ....
  2. thekiwi

    MSP

    In reply to: The_Muns on Friday 21/01/05 05:04pm QUOTE Any one found any info on why the sudden interest. From the contact I have even Genner is surprised with the movement. Feeling still is that nothing substantial is likely to occur for another 2-3 weeks.
  3. thekiwi

    MSP

    In reply to: dylan on Friday 21/01/05 04:04pm QUOTE i like the look of a .28 close. All on no news. Yes ... all a bit bizaare. From what Im told there is only the "likelihood" of news near the end of the month ... so where all the interest is coming from ...??
  4. thekiwi

    BCL

    Still waiting for it to find a support level. See if 17.5 holds .... I believe Financials due out end of Jan, so wait to see whether it can stay afloat.
  5. Was thinking SLX would hold the 120 area and move Nth ... with the current setup ... but that peak below yesterday to 119, whilst its only a small amount, makes me think that a bounce off 112/114 area is more likely.
  6. Excellant ... so Im not the only sitting watching AIM to come back to life http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif
  7. thekiwi

    GDO

    $12 million Share Placement Finalised On 30 November 2004 the Company announced that it had arranged a $12 million placement of shares, to investor clients of Bell Potter Securities Limited and Grange Securities Limited. I am please to advise that the placement was today finalised with the allotment of 48,000,000 ordinary fully paid shares at 25 cents each. Shareholders approved the issue of the placement shares at a General Meeting held on 10 January 2005. The funds raised will facilitate early commencement of the staged development of the Twin Hills Gold Project. Stage 1 will entail mining of high grade gold ore from the 309 Deposit at Twin Hills and the treatment of the ore at a gold treatment plant located at Rishton near Charters Towers, which is being acquired by the Company. First gold production is scheduled for around the end of September 2005. The Company today also allotted 200,000 ordinary fully paid shares to The Venture Capital Group Limited in respect of part of the fees incurred in arranging the above share placement. Attached is Appendix 3B in respect of the shares issued. Yours faithfully, BMA GOLD LIMITED
  8. thekiwi

    IIN

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...255E643,00.html OzEmail tilts towards iiNet Michael Sainsbury January 21, 2005 PERTH-BASED internet service provider iiNet is in the box seat to buy rival OzEmail for about $100 million when bids for the company close today. A successful deal would give iiNet about 450,000 internet customers, making it the third-largest ISP in Australia behind telcos Telstra and Optus. IiNet is likely to be the last company remaining in the drawn-out sale process that has been under way since last June, when OzEmail's owner, MCI, began scouting for a buyer. IiNet is understood to be happy to pay more than rivals SP Telemedia and No2 ISP and telco Optus for the business. US-based MCI, once known as WorldCom, was pushed into bankruptcy in 2001 after accounting irregularities were exacerbated by the global technology crash. Its founder, Bernie Ebbers, and other executives face criminal charges in the US this year. WorldCom bought OzEmail for $520 million in 1999, making instant multi-millionaires of its founders Sean Howard, Trevor Kennedy and recently elected MP Malcolm Turnbull. Earlier the ISP became the first Australian company to list on the US technology-heavy Nasdaq index. As a mainly residential ISP, OzEmail has remained an anomaly on MCI's books, but its sale was delayed while the company emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US. OzEmail's customer base has shrunk from about 500,000 in 2000 to about 250,000 as it was starved of capital during its owners' woes. But the OzEmail brand name is still strong. In a report on iiNet published this week, Macquarie Equities analyst Gary Pinge forecasts a sale price of $100-120 million. "We estimate that OzEmail achieves revenues of around $80 million to $90 million per annum and has a 30-40 per cent earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin. Based on these metrics, an EBITDA multiple of 3.5 to 4 times seems reasonable." IiNet is one of the few remaining local survivors of the late 1990s internet boom to have improved in value. It listed its shares for $1 in 1999. The stock was trading at $3.20 at yesterday's close, valuing the group at $260 million. Macquarie Equities estimates that the acquisition of OzEmail would lift iiNet's reported earnings per share by 12 per cent next financial year and 22 per cent in 2006-07. IiNet is in the process of building its own broadband (high-speed internet) network using Telstra's copper wires and ADSL technology.
  9. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...255E643,00.html Santos hails huge oil strike Nigel Wilson, Energy writer January 21, 2005 SANTOS has made the biggest oil strike in its 50-year history – a discovery that could dramatically transform the company's long-term prospects. The full ramifications of the find off the coast of Indonesia have yet to be determined, but it has immediately quelled concerns about Santos's reliance on the declining fields of the Cooper Basin in central Australia. Analysts believe the Jeruk discovery could be worth $1.25 a share, or more than $700 million, to Santos. The company's shares finished 8c weaker at $8.60 yesterday, with the latest drill results released after the close of trading. After months of speculation, Santos yesterday confirmed its Jeruk discovery, offshore from Surabaya in Java, contained "likely recoverable reserves in excess of 170 million barrels of oil". This compares with the 120 million barrels reserves estimated by Woodside Petroleum at Chinguetti off the west African nation of Mauritania, which is now being developed as a $US625 million ($823 million) project. A find of 170 million barrels would be worth billions of dollars in revenue to Santos, which is a 50 per cent partner in the Sampang "production sharing contract". The balance is held by the Indonesian company PT Medco, which last year bought Australia's Novus Petroleum. The find is likely to transform Santos, which has been facing the prospect of fading petroleum reserves from its key operations in the Cooper Basin, without a substantial replacement in its portfolio. After the stock market closed yesterday, Santos reported a column depth – the amount of oil-bearing sand – of at least 379m in the Jeruk-2 well. But due to the technical difficulties, the well had not achieved the planned total depth. "The results of Jeruk-2 are very encouraging," Santos managing director John Ellice-Flint said. "We are currently integrating all data into a final evaluation of the well, which will help us narrow a likely reserve range for the field." Analysts previously suggested Jeruk could contain up to 500 million barrels of oil. But people close to the drilling program suggested that because total depth had not been reached, the available data indicated that Jeruk could contain as much as 700 million barrels. In a report published last week, UBS energy analyst Gordon Ramsay said the Jeruk structure was estimated to contain between 250 million and 300 millions barrels of oil. "We view Jeruk as a potential re-rating trigger for Santos," Mr Ramsay said. "Although early days, we believe Jeruk has the potential to be worth up to around $1 a share to Santos. John Hirjee of Deutsche Bank said that if 170 million barrels was confirmed, it would be worth 51c a share to Santos. But reserves in the range of 350 million to 500 million barrels would be worth 90c to $1.25 to the company.
  10. thekiwi

    VID

    ERG to Install Gironde Transport Smart Card System - 19/1/05 In a move designed to create a transport fare payment system compatible with all transport in the region, the Conseil General De La Gironde in the Bordeaux region of France has chosen ERG Transit Systems to provide and install their smart card fare collection system. The contract, which has a value of €2.4 million, will be completed in mid 2006. The new system will allow the use of paper tickets, magnetic stripe tickets and smart cards, greatly increasing passenger convenience. It will be installed on 350 buses serving the interurban area. “Our systems are already providing easier journeys for commuters in the City of Bordeaux, where ERG recently completed the transport smart card systemâ€ÂÂÂÂÂÂ, said David D Stone, ERG’s Global Head of Business Development. “We now look forward to supplying the citizens of Gironde with our state-of-the-art technology.†“Gironde joins a growing list of cities around the world that have selected ERG smart card technology and this further strengthens ERG’s presence in France and the rest of Europe", continued Mr Stone. This is the fourth French contract awarded to ERG for smart card fare collection equipment within the past twelve months. In addition to the Conseil General De La Gironde, recent tenders awarded include Department of Bas-Rhin Strasbourg, Clermont-Ferrand and La Roche/Yon. -END- BACKGROUND INFORMATION ERG Group The ERG Group is a world leader in the development and supply of integrated fare management and software systems for the transit industry, and for its smart card systems and services. The Group has installed systems in major cities throughout the world including Hong Kong, Melbourne, Rome, San Francisco and Singapore with installations in progress in Gothenburg, Seattle, Stockholm, Sydney and Washington DC. ERG has delivered systems that support more than 20 million smart cards in circulation and handle approximately 5 billion transactions per annum. ERG is an Australian-based company, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and employs 900 people in 11 countries.
  11. thekiwi

    VAH

    Broken thro' support at 186 and now testing lower support at 165 .... just slightly ... getting masacred.
  12. In reply to: x-ray on Wednesday 19/01/05 12:20pm QUOTE should be a bit of resistance at .92 Yes ... agree. Its had quite a few closes at 92 so be interesting to see where todays close is. Not a heck of a lot of volume tho' .. so not convinced yet
  13. In reply to: skorpian on Wednesday 19/01/05 11:43am Bit of activity looking to happen ... be interesting to see if the 100K Order at 90c stays through to the open ...
  14. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...255E643,00.html Mystery buyer shops for Miller's Katherine Jimenez January 19, 2005 AILING discount variety retailer Miller's Retail could be in for a shake-up amid speculation that a mystery buyer is accumulating its shares. About 24 million Miller's shares have changed hands since the company revealed a profit downgrade last Friday. The share price has jumped 24c to $1.10 in that time, including a rise of 11c yesterday. Sources said the activity was led by one buyer -- possibly a private equity company such as Catalyst -- accumulating shares via UBS. UBS bought more than 4million of the 9.2 million shares that traded yesterday, at price of between $1 and $1.11. The investor could have amassed a stake of up to 9 per cent and could seek to make changes in the company. Speculation about the future of Miller's -- the owner of Katies and Go-Lo -- has been running rife for some time. Miller's co-founders Ian Miller, who has a seat on the board, and chief executive Gary Perlstein own nearly 20percent of the stock. But there have been suggestions that Miller's might need to close or sell parts of its business and make management and board changes. Last year Brett Blundy, the founder and biggest shareholder of retailer Brazin, stepped aside to make way for a new chief executive. Last Friday, Miller's issued its second profit warning in less than seven months. It advised that full-year earnings before interest, tax and amortisation would be cut by $5.2 million to $43million, after a disastrous first half in which earnings were savaged by up to 20 per cent. The collapse in earnings was again blamed on fierce price competition from struggling rival New Zealand Warehouse Group. Price cuts in that discount variety space, poor sales in part due to supply chain issues and a "meaningful" reduction in currency gains were also blamed. Citigroup Smith Barney immediately slashed its target price and 2005 and 2006 profit forecasts. It questioned Miller's ability to meet its new forecast, highlighting the thin cash flow the company had to meet debt repayments. "Bank support is likely to be highly dependent on a clear turnaround in operating metrics," Citigroup said. Miller's supply chain was another concern for the analyst. Macquarie Bank described the first-half performance as "disappointing" and said it was surprised by the "scale of deterioration" in the apparel business. It also had concerns about its supply chain. "This is the second Christmas in a row that one of Miller's divisions has been impacted by supply chain issues," Macquarie wrote. It concluded by saying "we expect things could get worse before they get better". Other industry observers agreed. Miller's discount variety business would struggle to compete with powerful rivals such as Coles Myer, Woolworths and Warehouse and had other problems in its apparel business, they said. Macquarie said that one of management's key initiatives last year was to lift its price points to raise margins. "This initiative appears to have failed to gain traction," it said.
  15. In reply to: skorpian on Wednesday 19/01/05 11:43am QUOTE I love all of this charting talk - sometimes it follows the investors Spot on exactly ... that is all it does http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif ... it follows the majority
  16. thekiwi

    AMP - AMP LIMITED

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/AMP-pu...5810915044.html AMP pushed up as capital return looms By Lisa Murray January 19, 2005 The prospect of a $1 billion-plus capital return for investors has boosted AMP's share price to its highest level in almost two years. Chief executive Andrew Mohl, who was speaking at the company's financial planners conference in Auckland yesterday, is expected to update the market on AMP's capital management plans at its full-year results on February 14. In a report released yesterday, JP Morgan insurance analyst Shane Fitzgerald estimated AMP's surplus capital at almost $600 million and said the group was capable of returning double that amount to shareholders. Mr Fitzgerald said that AMP was unlikely to "fire off all cannons at once" but investors should not underestimate the potential for a big capital return. He expected the company to return capital through a special payment to shareholders of up to $900 million and debt reduction of up to $350 million. AMP shares jumped 17c yesterday to close at $7.60, their highest level since February 4, 2003, when the company was plagued by capital problems and on the verge of announcing the amputation of its gangrenous UK arm, now HHG. Some brokers also said AMP's share price was being boosted by lingering rumours that ANZ was running the ruler over the wealth management group.
  17. thekiwi

    AMP - AMP LIMITED

    In reply to: fisher1 on Thursday 04/11/04 01:33pm 643 area resistance seems so long ago now http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif It must be a serious possibility now, given its run since March 2004, that we can a testing of resistance at around 821 area. With the stock being above 720 it really is looking good.
  18. thekiwi

    SIR

    In reply to: wolverine on Tuesday 18/01/05 02:09pm Good announcement on 17th, with corresponding surge in price action. A trade on the 14th would have been a good thing, if you had been following CRS ... nice Doji reversal pattern with pretty clear support at 54c. Looks to be struggling again at 60c with a selloff yesterday ... with further resistance at 63 and 68. If it can get above 60c ... will look good ... might be lucky Wolverine ... http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif
  19. thekiwi

    AGX

    In reply to: remlif on Tuesday 18/01/05 03:45pm Yea ... and watching AGX at the moment, and it currently seems to be happy to trade between 49 and 53c. WAs surprised to see it drop below 59c as I was getting ready to buy on a move from support ... but that never occured. A fall below 49 is going to see it slide I feel.....
  20. QUOTE (jumper @ Wednesday 19/01/05 10:07am) Jumper Any chance you can edit your post to change the URL so it doesnt blow out the page? Not sure if you still have te EDIT button available ....
  21. Currently watching EPT with a close eye .... * Got key support at 89c, at which the price is settling at the moment * Currently the daily hi's are getting slowly lower, but conversely, the daily lo's are holding that 89c level, with the possiblity of a symetrical triangle setup. In these situation we get the market gradually agreing on a price (maybe 89c) and then someone spooks them (announcement, rumour etc) and the price just explodes Nthwards. * VOlume has dropped, but the price is holding relatively well. Going to be interesting to see what happens in the lead up to end of Jan.
  22. thekiwi

    MSP

    QUOTE (romaioi @ Monday 17/01/05 07:50pm) Here is a chart with a slightly longer timeframe to show where romaioi's resistance point of 30c comes from. What I note is * Since mid Oct. this stock hasnt been able to put on more than 3 days of higher hi's / higher lo's. You can even see this with yesterdays trading and whilst the close back at 27 could be quite bullish, its still shakey ground. BQT needs to put a string of ups together with a limited pull back * Since mid Oct the stock has range traded between roughly 20 and 25c. Great if you feel comfortable with trading the swings, but could potentially result in a lost opportunity if/when this things decides to move. * I bought in at 23/23.5 on the run back in Nov, but that move failed to break 25c. * The last few days have seen some volume kicking in which we havent seen since Nov, and also a break above 25c. For those trading a breakout style this could have been a trigger to buy, depending on your plan and whether or not you wait for confirmation such as a retesting of support etc. * Since the stock isnt trending at the moment, we use Momentun indicators. MACD gave a buy back on the 31 Dec area. RSI gave a BUY back on the 14 Oct with its move from below 70. Pretty gutsy of you used that one http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif You will note RSI is getting close to 70 and the possibility of an "over bought" situation occuring. This is common in a stock which has been consolidating for a period of time and will often signficy the beginning of a new trend. * Personally, yesterday was good price action. The biggest plus was the testing of 25c and then the pushing back to 27c close. Shows at a psychological level that the players arent prepared, yet, to see it move backwards. The volume was reasonable, so we have fresh holders coming in at these prices to create some new support. 25c should be support and if broken, wont be good. For me I have next resistance at around 29c as this was a brief stalling point back at the end of Oct, as well as back in June. * There are no key divergences occuring between price and indicators to suggest a reversal ... so all in all .. if we can just stay above 25c, all is looking good. Just need another dominant bullish candle to show this isn't a false start. In terms of price predictions ... I dont get into that. As long as BQT shows signs of continuing, I hold. The red line in the chart is my trailing stop. YOu can see how close I got to exiting on 16th Dec .... Current stop is 24c.
  23. In reply to: VEGEMAN on Thursday 02/12/04 04:26pm QUOTE Thanks for your recomendations everybody , all of these books do you get them at your local bookstore and pay full price or is there a discount website. Couple of local online books stores worth checking out for specials: Investor IQ The trading Game
  24. thekiwi

    MSP

    In reply to: romaioi on Monday 17/01/05 04:56pm QUOTE This is sooner than expected Yea ... very unexpected ... and apparently he had only been on holiday in Hawaii (contrary to popular opinion that he has been stictching up deals etc) A close above 25 should spark some interest ...
  25. thekiwi

    HDR

    In reply to: sailorgirl on Monday 17/01/05 03:47pm QUOTE Ahhh, so these TA's can pick a dry hole before it's discovered to be dry. Nope ... but they certainly picked the price to drop. must be incredibly annoying ....
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