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crashtstdumy

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  1. The Emperor has only been wearing two skimpy items of clothing for some time, and the undies have been QEased to the point of dropping., Now his striptease, which has been largely ignored by the market, includes a sneak mamorial flash as the Inflated bra lifts ... Fundamentals have been ignored for too long with typical peak talk of 'This time it's different'. Even during the Corona crash one of my favorite measurments the CAPE for the S&P never actually got to cheap levels. It just went from alarmingly overpriced (in the 30's) back to something around the long term average (16 - 17). Just a couple of weeks ago I had a family member ask me if they should enter the Australian market with a large chunk of money they have been saving to build a house. My response was a flat 'No' and pointed out the market is still way overpriced even after the recent prolonged drops in the US. And told them to look at the CAPE and make sure you understand what it represents. Any bulls that do so should be scared ... https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
  2. Welcome back Mark. Great to hear from you again. I'm surprised to hear your long considering your past posts. Did you re-enter recently and more importantly could you give us your guesstimate from a technical perspective where you estimate the next substantial support levels are for the Dow and the S&P ?. (My rough estimate is around 15-16k for the Dow & 1700 for the S&P). I know your answer is likely to refer to the insanity of today's environment and I can't remember such wild and extensive swings in the 2008 crash (which I was trading) but hey, you can't blame me for asking ðŸ˜ÅÂÂ
  3. Thanks Mark a great read as always. Good to hear from you again. I have to admit I haven't been active on SS since your break. If possible it would be appreciated if you could footnote references for the sources of your facts. I'm not debating their validity, just interested in learning by expanding my reference sources. Thanks. CTD.
  4. I would suggest checking out Westpac Online trading. The platform seems to be identical to Comsec but in different colours. Cant say yet if IRESS works on it as I'm currently using a Adroid phone but I can say that having previously been a Macquarie Prime client but having to move due to Macquarie closing their Margin loans I found that BT Margin lending (owned by Westpac) the most competative in what they could offer. CBA rejected my application because I'm currently still traveling the world ( 5 years now) NAB offered me a credit limit of 1.1 Million at 5.8% variable rate and I signed up with BT because as a wholesale investor they approved a limit of 4.5 Million at 4.2%. LVRs on the blue chips at 75% which might be lower that NAB at 80% ion some blue chips. The above may seem irrelevant when talking trading platforms but it is something to consider as the next step relating to the platform. Personally I view the market as high so I'm not drawing down on the loan until we have a crash but it's what I did during 2008 which enabled me to be classified a wholesale investor today. Good to have the ammo ready.
  5. I found the Macquarie Prime margin lending account the best option for me several years ago when i was looking. I don't know how competative it is now. Currently it pays 2% at call for positive balances, interest calculated daily and credited monthly and %7.2 for negative balances. No fees. It has been a useful tool for me I borrowed big on it pretty much at the bottom of the 2008/09 crisis and sold off enough to make it positive again at the end of 2013 when i viewed things as expensive again which seems to have been a good move in hindsight. It may sound like an exaggeration or that I'm spruiking but I retired 5 years ago at the age of 43 by and large thanks to that account. Now patiently waiting for the crash so i can do it again but been tempted by the banks recent lows.
  6. Sorry just change those charts to the 'Max' timeline option when you click on them.
  7. S&P 500 Long term chart Would the 'Tech heads' amongst us like to comment on the long term Charts for the DJS and the S&P 500 ? If i was a bull I'd be hot under the collar looking at these but I never seem to hear anybody mentioning them.
  8. Thanks Mark. I have nowhere near the knowledge or expedience of the markets as you do but over the years have done well enough with my trading in equities to retire in 2010 at the age of 43. Like you I also sold off a significant portion of my portfolio in 2013 and have been traveling the world continuously for the last 3 years (currently in South America) but I don't think we have egg on our faces, I think the adage 'The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid' is appropriate in the current environment (and is why I haven't shorted) and those who are disciplined and patient will once again be rewarded. Thanks again for your views. (btw can't 'Thank' your posts at the moment from my smartphone the option is missing)
  9. Thanks GG. only got a smart phone as I'm travelling the world. About to hike up a mountain in Panama so I'll try later.
  10. Can the TechHeads amongst us comment on this longer term picture of the S&P and Dow please? If I was a Bull I'd be nervous even without Mark's insightful logic.. As my inexperience on SS probably means me probably failing to correctly paste these links I'm just attempting to link Google finance's max time length charts for the Dow and the S&P which don't paint a pretty picture going forward when viewing 1978 through to now. Just choose the chart length value of 'max' https://www.google.com/m/finance#company/INDEXSP:.INX https://www.google.com/m/finance
  11. Thanks Mark. Do you have any contacts in the Australian Media who could do a story on the whole sorry situation?
  12. I've been traveling since the start of March in 2012 (currently in Jamaica) and came across Max Keiser on Russian tv whilst in the Uk. His report 'The Keiser Report' is probably not known by most Australians on this site but highly amusing and probably closer to reality than his seemingly exaggerated entertainment suggests. In keeping with the spirit of this discussion he is worth checking out : www.maxkeiser.com/
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