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  1. i made some calculation last saturday regarding the bottom of the DOW basically what i did, i took the 1933 crash and compare it with the 2008 crash and take some additional factors for 2008 (derivatives, stronger govt interference, stronger global coordination and so on) and i came to calculation about 6000 (for DOW) i will try to find my scrap paper and post it in this forum please let me know what u guys and girls thinking Cheers We3za
  2. interesting discussion, i totally agreed that the bottom is close now probably about another 15 % -30 % to see the bottom. all the wound is out now, tha government bail them out (except for lehmann, tough luck ayee), US, UK, EUROPE and more they cut the interest rates significantly to boost the economy, once it reach the bottom it will recover slowly, it will take quite sum times to back to business as usual. China and middle east still developing their infrastructure, they still need a lot of resources. its all FEAR that controlling the market at the moment, Hedge fund selling oz dollars as they are predicting the demand for raw materials will go down as well as oz dollars. the gold price will increase to about $1k/oz i reckon but once it reach the bottom the oz$ will goes up again and the gold price will drop to about $600-$700 (fair value). Oil price will back up to about $90-100 that's only my opinion please let me know what u r thinking ps: dont go for the investment banks, better buy resources
  3. In reply to: healyn on Friday 03/10/08 08:57pm yes, that is true, they give lot of concessions for the bail out to passed (sum kind of bribery http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif they need to do it though, france just slip to recession as their economy contract in 2 quarters as expected the other members of EU will follow suits. French govt also act in similar way with washington as they will buy some bad mortgage up to 20 billion euros . without this step, the liquidity will dries up as it happened in UK (high LIBOR rate), the bank wont lend money even to other banks. and lots of investment banking and hedge fund dumping the quality stocks to the market as they need to preserve the cash as much as they can. the number of employment rising in US (the source of the problem), however unfortunately it wont stop there, it will have strong domino effects on the rest of the world. though i dont really think the bailout will be able to help the global economy, i reckon it will reduce the severity of the cold, however we still need quite some time before business as usual. what the market can hope now is the government spending, that's why Kevin Rudd stating to accelerate the infrastructure developments at the moment. lets hope China, India and middle east will spend heavily on their infrastructure. cheers please let me know what do you think
  4. i reckon it will be passed this time as we all need this bail out to save the global economy as the weak datas just been released from US if they dont passed this bill this time, it will create much more volatility in the market and dragged the economy to the lowest since the Great depression. as much as i hate the Bailout itself (as a free market capitalist) as much as i hope they pass it
  5. one friend of mine send me this google docs very insightful and use easy to understand to explained the root cause of Credit Crunch here it is: http://docs.google.com/Present?docid=dtfm9...4&skipauth=true Thank You Kind Regards We3za
  6. hi all i made some analysis toward the credit crunch would appreciate any feedback, comment, etc Thank You kind Regards We3za Credit_Crunch.doc
  7. we3za


    In reply to: dayz on Wednesday 02/04/08 06:04am in my opinion in medium to long term the gold will be around $1200-1300 as many people worried that the chinese bubble will burst US Recession ==> Less Demand ==> China will get hit ==> Chinese bubble burst ==>everyone hedge to gold ==> Gold prices up
  8. i think to made short selling illegal is bullshit we are able to made lots of money from market turmoil and helps the share price evaluated by the system when u play a game and its to many rules the game won't be fun anymore when you play in the stock market, you need to prepare to get burn if you willing to gain the benefits you must also willing to take the risk don't run and cry when you get burn
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