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Everything posted by crookers

  1. Hi Ian, Thanks for your reply. I have looked into this stocks basic fundamentals on a few occasions and decided against buying mainly based on personal observations of my local TAF store and some of their brands. Nonetheless I agree that they are a long standing profitable business and I thought you might be able to provide some research that would convince me to change my opinion. I am also in possession of a report which shows Consumer Discretionary stocks such as Super Retail, GUD, The Reject Shop and Pacific Brands all issuing profit warnings so I am one of those, that you mention, who is avoiding this sector at the moment. These profit warnings all came prior to the Federal Budget which will not help their cause. I do agree though that the market certainly can overeact as I have experienced with stocks that have even a minor exposure to mining. I too am always willing to listen and learn from others with far greater knowledge than myself and hence my post. Regards crookers
  2. Hi Ian and Terrine, Would you be good enough to supply some reasons/facts for your positions thanks. Crookers
  3. Sorry and I meant the impact on the AUD of course.
  4. Hi Wren and Flower, Your insights into currency movements make me feel inadequate. I have a gut feeling as a layman that the rapidly growing decline in mining investment(for whatever reason) and the soon to be completed LNG projects is going to have a massive impact on our economy and the Equity market overall. I would value both your thoughts and of course Kahuna??? Thank you.
  5. I am having difficulty deciding wether this is a valuable resource or just clouding the picture? They value so many stocks under market price,some considerably. My expertise in fundamental valuation is limited to back of the envelope so I would appreciate input from members who use/have used the service and have formed an opinion. Thank you.
  6. Hi Doc-gt Good for you. I got out way too early(before this latest crazy run) because of personal circumstances. How cruel this game can be. I admire you staying in when attractive profits were already available. I thought around PE of 15 was about right. wrong Cheers gc
  7. Yes agree of course with those comments. Have had the pleasure of working with this guy and he is a special talent in many ways but if he is to become another boring media commentator then cricket is the big loser. He should immediately be employed as THE FACE OF AUSTRALlIAN CRICKET.
  8. Best thing to happen to cricket in years. The Argus report is being shown for what it is............Rubbish. Cycles in sharemarkets as in sport. Without cycles of success no game. But some on this forumn dont get the big picture. Just small minded people who IM amongst themselves. Excessive nationalism is a very dangerous tool as all historic wars have shown. For me I enjoy the beauty of the game as in football without the need to be the victor and when success comes that is nice..
  9. Yes agree with your calculations and the $AUD is critical to the result. If we assume a constant dollar and a 20% tax rate I calculate after tax profit for 2012 in the range of $12.6m-$13.3 or EPS 7.5-8 and a P/E of less than 9 even at the current price of 70cs. Coupled with the fact that this company has no debt and has been profitable for 22 years it surely is a very safe long term investment with definite upside under favourable currency conditions. Will add more if it gets sold down further. One thing that puzzles me is the bias of earnings towards the second half. I suspect it has to do with license agreements but would appreciate any comments on this? Regards crookers
  10. And..... To illustrate the real position of Aust. Cricket at the moment, Martin Love, Brad Hodge and Stuart Law would presently be automatic selections at every level and yet they could not find regular positions in any form of the game during their careers. How those players must regret the eras in which they had to compete. Sobering thoughts when one looks at the current team.
  11. Hi Nifty Havent noticed that with DH so will keep an eye on that. I think the selection of SS has already shown a weakness in the new selection process in that Clarke has got his way. He loves him and NSW teamates etc etc.... I have just had a look through recent one day interstate performances and the number of players that should be there rather than SS is ridiculous. Just to name a couple Forrest(as the replacement for MH why wasnt he the automatic choice?),Travis Birt(very good player imo),Daniel Christian(soon forgotten WHY?) Aaron Finch,Moses Henriques(outstanding talent with great technique and more than usefull seamer) and the most underated short form player Mark Cosgrove and the Marsh boys and many many more that dont spring to mind............. I have a relative who plays with SS and wont hear a bad word about him so lets hope he at last puts egg all over my face!!! cheers
  12. Hi J, Yes England too good and had the tougher conditions also. The Australian middle order continues to be a problem and contains a player who has played 51 ODIs/T20s and is yet to make a 50. Hard to believe but true and regrettably his bowling performances are all to similar. How can you carry a player like that against a team of the calibre of England. So much for the new selection panel. It simply defies belief. cheers
  13. Hi Doc Yes agree and have invested here before with disappointment. I am no guru but the second half does seem to outway the first. Is there any consistency there? Thanks and good luck.
  14. Yes Hen I too found why MJ was selected so understand that there is a clear obligation there. But I have real problems still with the system of reward being based on match numbers rather than performance in those matches. IMO Cowan is certain to play in the next 3 tests and will earn a contract regardless of his performances in those 3 tests. I think most would agree with that conclusion? So we could have the(hypothetical) situation where an uncontracted player who has failed in his last 3 Test outings is given an Aust. players contract that was not awarded when his prior performances warranted test selection and a contract. Frankly I think this whole situation is an overreaction that sees foreign coaches appointed and questions being raised about a system that has stood the test of time at every level. If one is seeking improvement look no further than funding for grade cricket and its needs.
  15. "So he has to play three more tests and he is in" please explain what this miraculous number is? Why should someones contribution be linked to numbers and not performance levels? And clearly Mitch Johnsons inclusion means he has achieved this magic number. sorry i dont understand the procedure.
  16. CRICKET AUSTRALIA CONTRACTS ANNOUNCED Are they serious??? 6 batsmen(including watson) 7 quicks(excluding Watson) 2 orthodox spinners and 2 wicketkeepers/batsmen. And yet Ed Cowan will be first picked for the Tests. Surely a serious imbalance exists here. I cannot understand the need to restrict our squad to these numbers and would appreciate any comments as to why this is so. The other surprise is that the always picked/underperforming S Smith is not included.
  17. Agree Balance, The funny thing about this whole mess is thatKatich is the very person best equipped to lead the side in this difficult period. So we have the absurd situation where the Captain of Australia would not be chosen as captain of his state. Just another blunder I am afraid by these selectors. As for Hughes yes he does have talent coupled with some glaring technical faults that our batting coach was trying to sort out in the middle of a series. He simpply should not have been selected at that level until he was scoring reguarly against quality Shield attacks and his obvious problems were corrected. I mention Smith only because I consider him to be the most overated player to be selected in my 50 years of watching the game. Have a look at his performances over the past two years and they will confirm my view. Oddly enough he is another who would not make the NSW side on a level playing field. Steph Okeefe is a far better player in all areas and Nathan Hauritz also. This really is something that needs to be addressed as the National selectors share views that State selectors clearly dont.
  18. Its ok we have those great talents of P Hughes and S Smith to make up for this traversity??????????????????????????????????
  19. Well I guess Ricky did stick it up them, agreed, but I will again make the comment that Pakistan are the worst fielding test side I have seen and I will now add that the captains field placings are of a similar level. That will go down as the softest 200 ever scored but 200 nonetheless and that is in the records. Please dont get me wrong I think Ponting is an amazing player but this Pakistani side with all their problems is very ordinary. That being said I wonder what the situation would have been had they held their catches???? So how good are we in reality??? Time will tell but I am not convinced that this and the last series against the Windies are really such great achievements? and a true guide to our standing in the test arena. Again we have looked suspect against swing/seam bowling(dont we always) and our bowling whilst adequate seems to lack real penetration and relies on batting error which has been abundant to say the least. Some of the shots played border on Sydney 3rd grade IMO and the running between wickets!!! Anyway all you can do is win but I for one am not getting over exited. cheers
  20. Not sure Punter stuck it up them. More like the Pakis stuck it up themselves. Pontings decision to bat would have been a disaster against any real cricket team. Pakistan is without doubt the worst fielding side ever to play international cricket, bar none. No player comes through our system without being a very capable field and Pakistan must address their woeful performance in this area which basically cost them the test. Great game nonetheless.
  21. The system has already been shown to be flawed and the technology very questionable. I for one support the retention of umpires decisions(good or bad) but know I am a dying breed.
  22. Hi Nightstalker, Agree with your comments entirely but surprised you did not question the TEDDY BEAR WATSON incident. What a sad indictement of Australian cricket that person is. One can only wonder how someone like that came through the system and the demands of the great game with so little respect for the opposition and the game. I am tired of seeing Australian cricketers being given preferential penalty treatment and their behaviour in general. Thank god he is not my son. As for Cricket Australia. Well Bernard manager and Hughes selector. Not exactly ambassadors for the game in their time! Will say no more. cheers
  23. Thanks onefineday, just read the google summary. Amazing story and makes me feel totally inadequate. A very unique brain obviously and I for one could never comprehend that level of investment expertise. Crookers
  24. Hi Tylergold was wondering if there was any supporting comment on this formula and why it may provide value opportunities. My fundamental analysis is insufficient to assess the merits or otherwise but looks interesting. Thanks for any input you may have. Crookers
  25. Balance My response to your post was in no way meant or intended to be personal and I think if you read it again you will agree it is all about the "game". I will not go into detail about the various matters I raised as clearly you are someone who enjoys a lot of sports and if I have offended you please accept my sincere apologies. For the record my first love is cricket which as our national game and as a leading nation we can all enjoy to the fullest. My problem with Rugby League is not so much the game itself, which needless to say is not me, but that the game is so insular and all the time and money that is expended on this pursuit, if expended on football, could allow us to become a serious player on the world stage. All I would like to see is a little financial equality based on participation levels. Nonetheless I am well aware that it will never happen because of the status quo that exists in this country. So I guess until people like yourself can see that there is an issue here nothing will change. Regards Crookers
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