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farmer fred

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Everything posted by farmer fred

  1. farmer fred

    BTA

    New brokers report from RBS Morgans on website. http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021003&subpage=1021136 They've changed from a hold to a buy, with a valuation of $2.38 and a target of $1.67. On another note, Lani sales in Japan are above expectations, with sales of $33.8 million for the December Quarter.
  2. farmer fred

    BTA

    "... but that will take 3 years " True, but if they have good results early on, I'm pretty sure they will fast track the trial. Biocryst recently found serious side effects such as respiratory failure, septic shock and kidney failure with intravenous Peramivir, which, as far as I know, is the only other antiviral available for intravenous use. So I think authorities will be pretty keen to have one intravenous drug available for very serious cases. The other good thing this means that GSK will be manufacturing iv relenza, which they didnt during the last pandemic.
  3. farmer fred

    BTA

    The report is available on BTA website. http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021003&subpage=1021136
  4. Back to SUN today. RBS Morgan upgraded from hold to buy today with a price target of $10.41. They believe its been oversold and that their reinsurance cover will be kicking in for the floods with little impact on their bottom line. I sold out when it looked like Brisbane would get hit, but will look to get back in at some stage. Thing that worries me how Queensland's economy will get hit by this.
  5. farmer fred

    MSF

    ASX announcement out, all OK so far. Rain band seems to be slowly moving south, so hopefully will not affect the expected levels in the Mary now. Still raining here but heavy rain now only sporadic. Horrific what happened in Toowoomba yesterday, hard to believe in a city thats so high up. I think Brisbane might cop it pretty hard today, Mother nature can be a cruel teacher.
  6. Thanks for that Brierley, I took the easy way out and looked up the market cap on comsec. I just looked up the latest 3B and they state the number of shares listed as 187.7million. I always thought the 3B's showed all shares issued in the company.
  7. farmer fred

    MSF

    Hi triage, Thanks for your concern, but we are pretty safe where we are, the water runs off pretty quickly from our place. I'll no doubt get a lot of root rot in the trees down the track, but that is minor to what a lot of people up here are facing. It was wild and woolly up here yesterday, we had 320 mls on already saturated ground, most of which will be heading for wivenhoe now. Cant understand why they didnt start releasing water a bit earlier with all the bad weather forecast. I dont really have any contact with canegrowers, they are a bit north of us and have never worked with cane, so take my ramblings with a little grain of salt. Maryborough had a flood event yesterday but it didnt get as high as they had predicted. The floodwaters going down the Mary now are expected to peak in Gympie tonight and prolong the minor flooding in Maryborough according to the BOM, so doesnt sound too serious as far as damaging infrastructure. However their owned canefarms are close to the river, so dont know how much of that would be going under.In any case, most of their value now is in the northern milling JV. If the wet weather is prolonged, there'll be problems getting on fertilizer etc, and there may be damage to newly planted areas or freshly ratooned crops, though a lot of that should be reasonably established by now. Overall established cane is reasonably robust in the wet compared to a lot of other crops, though no doubt yields will be affected, especially with the lack of sunny days and overall cooler weather. I too was expecting some sort of update from them. I was pretty keen to take part in the capital raising even though I probably already have more than I should. I'll wait till the end of the week to decide and hopefully we'll hear something in the meantime. I'm still keen on them longterm and believe that Mitr Phol wont be content with 20% in the long term, so unless they drop further will probably participate. Cheers ff
  8. Thanks for that. Managed to get my last order filled earlier last week, but put in a bid today for some more today hopeing it would pull back for a bit. If it all pans out as planned should be multiples of this price next year.
  9. Looks like the overhang is starting to get cleared out. Some big buyers starting to buy and supply on the sell side seems to be diminishing.
  10. Seems to me we need all the different people mentioned in this thread to make the market work, FA's, TA's, fools, mugs, experts etc. I suspect most of us are a mixture of all of these to various degrees. We all have our different ways of making money out of the market and probably need someone opposed to our viewpoint to give us our low entrypoints. Hopefully we can all give our points of view, whether others accept it is up to them. Getting back to CVN, POE only dropped 3.4% on yesterdays news and made up 2.4% last night. The volcanics that CVN are drilling in are very complex and will take a lot of working out, but there is no doubt there is plenty of oil down there. There'll be plenty of ups and downs with CVN and I hope we all make money out of it.
  11. farmer fred

    BTA

    Certainly seems to have a head of steam this morning. Already nearly on yesterdays turnover.
  12. farmer fred

    BTA

    Seems to be starting to create a bit more interest with the price steadily increasing and volume picking up. H1N1 seems to be increasing in severity in the northern hemisphere. Should help BTA negotiate a good deal for ROW Lani.
  13. Another 28% increase in bopd, just short of 400 bopd now, a 60% increase from the October figure. Seem to have worked out the Blue Ridge field pretty well now, and with each well only costing $200,000 to drill and connect up to pump, should start seeing them being self funding. Amazing P2 oil reserves of 25.6 million barrells in excess of AWE or BPT, with a market cap of only $38m has to be a bargain. Thats before Boling dome or any of its other prospects.
  14. Good to see someone else on here buying these. Have been accumulating them in my SMSF over the last year as insurance against our own share market taking a dive. Have been worried for a while now about the lack of diversity of our market and our dependance on China and commodities. I was wondering about the wisdom of my investment for a while as they drifted sideways for the most part of this year while the $A went up despite the underlying shares increasing in value, however they have started to gain a bit of traction over the last few months. The two people who run the fund Chris Mackay and Hamish Douglass are two very smart investment managers, have seen them a couple of times on the ABC business sunday. They have slowly increase gearing in the fund without being overgeared and bought back shares while they were undervalued.
  15. Agree with you there triage with dams full and record commodity prices, a lot of farmers will be trying to get as much out of their land as possible. Probably also find a lot of marginal areas will be trying to plant a few crops. I suspect most of the impact will be on increased winter crop plantings. Horticultural products are also being affected and prices increasing. To be able to market a lot of this produce fungicides will have to applied more often. Weeds are also growing well in these sorts of conditions, all increasing demand for Nufarm products. Havent seen a year like this with difficulty obtaining a wide range of different chemicals at the local coop, and prices are going up. Also have to remember Nufarm is a global company, and improved soft commodity prices will be increasing demand around the world.
  16. farmer fred

    ADE

    AWE took six months to assess their core samples and establish the amount of resource in place, they sent them over to the states but dont know if BPT will do the same. Unlike AWE they are fraccing the wells after Holdfast 1 is finished, so that will give us a good idea on flow rates. Next news should be the rig arriving at the Holdfast 1 site. Could drift a bit lower while we wait, especially if they are delayed by the floods moving down the Cooper.
  17. farmer fred

    MSF

    Looks like another sugar processor gone with Bunge taking over Tully Sugar. Can only be a matter of time till MSF is taken over. Mitr Phol paid $4.00 per share for 19.9% of MSF, I wonder what they would be prepared to pay for control. Seems like very little of our food processing will be under Australian control. With the SPP in progress at the moment, any weakness in the shareprice would seem to be a good buying opportunity. Cant let Mitr Phol get it too cheap. "ANOTHER significant Australian agricultural group looks about to be taken over by a giant multinational. Massive US-based Bunge has lobbed a recommended $126.7 million bid for Tully sugar. If successful, the offer of $41 a Tully share will add an Australian arm to Bunge's international sugar business, largely based in Brazil where it is said to be the country's second-biggest producer. The bid is also likely to add to concerns in some circles that Australia is rapidly selling off its farm and thus potentially exposing itself to food security problems in the future. The bid for Tully, which may yet flush out competitors, comes as CSR's former sugar division, Sucrogen Queensland's biggest sugar producer is being mopped up by Singapore-based agri-group, Wilmar International, for $1.75 billion. It also comes as Maryborough Sugar, which is taking over Bundaberg Sugar's far north Queensland operations, has acquired its own significant international shareholder, Thai sugar group, Mitr Phol. The Thai company, that country's biggest sugar player, recently acquired 19.9 per cent of Maryborough Sugar - which has made several attempts in the past to buy Tully. French group Louis Dreyfuss, also a massive international agribusiness group, has also been mentioned as a potential buyer of Tully or Maryborough, which was looking for a wealthy big brother before it was surprised by the Thai group's purchase of its stake, at $4 a share, way over Maryborough's then price and still well above yesterday's close of $3.30 a share." http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/aus...3-1225976389143
  18. farmer fred

    ADE

    Over your 10c pretty early.
  19. farmer fred

    ADE

    I'm looking for the teens, but that may have to wait for the next well and the results from the fraccing early next year. Hopefully the profit takers from the rights are now finished.
  20. Is that what a lunar eclipse looks like? Need my dark glasses I think. Merry Christmas and a big thanks to all the knowledgeable contributors to sharescene
  21. farmer fred

    TXN

    Fraccing crews are flat out all over the Eagleford shale so I guess TXN have to just wait their turn. Sounds like the second well is just as promising as the first as regards oil and gas shows, so with present oil prices should start to see their quarterly revenue increase substantially next year. Also sinking a couple more wells early next year into the overlying Olmos sands.
  22. farmer fred

    TXN

    Great result on their first horizontal in the eagleford shale. 1202 barrels pd of light sweet crude and 782mcfpd of gas on a restricted 16/64 choke, up with the best wells in the eagleford shale. Would have thought that would have sent the shareprice up more than 8%, might get a more gradual increase over the next few days.
  23. An Irishman tells it like it is. Warning some strong language.
  24. farmer fred

    TXN

    Looks like the excitement is building on this one. Fraccing was delayed but should be out any day now. Hopefully a few more days like yesterday with volume this morning already exceeding yesterday's, and we'll be at a good point even before the IP figures come out.
  25. "Based on our investigations to date, Slater & Gordon considers that there is a strong basis to contend that the Company misled the market from 28 February 2008 until it suspended trading on 1 December 2008."
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