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farmer fred

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Everything posted by farmer fred

  1. farmer fred

    LRG

    Hi alston, It doesnt quite state that, it states they are paying a fully franked dividend and you can take that either as cash or as shares, so will be entitled to the franking credit either way. The 20c is because that is what the shareprice will likely fall back to after taking away the 10c dividend. Hope that helps, Cheers ff
  2. farmer fred

    MSF

    Looks like there may be a bit a few buyers circling to take over over Tully Sugar, with up to four different proposals to be put to shareholders. "A CHANGE to the ownership of Australia's unlisted, grower-owned Tully Sugar is imminent, with chief executive John King saying yesterday the company could receive formal takeover proposals as soon as this week, even as Queensland Sugar reported lifting its stake from 13.11 per cent to 17.62 per cent. Sugar marketer QSL, which is buying shares in Tully via stock brokerage Ord Minnett, intends to lift its stake to as high as 19.9 per cent and will continue to buy shares at $41 each whenever the opportunity arises, QSL chairman Alan Winney said. There are potential buyers offering $41 for each share in Tully, he said, without naming them. At stake is the ownership of one of the last grower-owned sugarcane mills in Australia, which is usually the biggest exporter of the sweetener in the world after Brazil and Thailand. Two months ago, the failure of Tully Sugar shareholders to muster enough support to remove a 20 per cent shareholding cap on any single shareholder temporarily derailed a $126.7 million takeover proposal by global agribusiness giant Bunge. Last Friday, Tully chairman Ralph Craven said the company received a non-binding indicative conditional takeover proposal from Bunge on Thursday that indicated it would renew its failed $41-a-share bid, one of four proposals that could affect shareholders, though none had been lodged at that point." The full article: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/t...x-1226037465458
  3. farmer fred

    MSF

    Have been looking for a reason for the stellar rise the last couple of days, another forum mentioned representatives of Mitr Phol were visiting North Queensland, but no reference given. Only news I found was that MSF might benefit from farmers changing to MSF due to large hedging losses by Queensland Sugar limited. http://www.qt.com.au/story/2011/03/21/ongo...-sugar-limited/ Personally I think its only a matter of when as far as Mitr Phol taking over MSF. May be precipitated by GPG wanting to get rid of their remaining MSF shares.
  4. I think they would still have a couple of million left. They had 9.6m left when they ceased to be a substantial holder and since then 12.3m shares have turned over. From previous days, they were averaging a bit more than half the turnover, so maybe 7+ million shares gone. Should be fairly close after today I reckon, thats providing they were still selling at the same rate of course.
  5. farmer fred

    BTA

    New report out from RBS Morgan. Valuation has increased to $2.53 with target increase to $2.02. They believe barda funding to be a game changer for BTA, enabling them to directly sell into the US stockpile. Available on the BTA website. http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021003&subpage=1021136
  6. Looks like we could be up for another run up on big volume this morning after a couple of days of drifting back on low volumes.
  7. farmer fred

    ASZ

    Hi Ozgaz, Bought half a position about three weeks ago when they came off a higher low, but they havent done much since. Still watching to buy the rest. Good to see the directors bought 500,000 on market last month. Cheers ff
  8. From AGM today, expecting insurance profit for 2011 to grow 30% before tax, with the usual caveats for an insurance company.
  9. farmer fred

    AZZ

    From the annual report looks like they are only getting 4.7% net on the term assignment from Petrohawk. No wonder they didnt want to disclose this any earlier.
  10. farmer fred

    BTA

    BARDA funding for laninamivir for up to $231m in this mornings ASX announcement should be a big boost for the shareprice today.
  11. Before this Santos owned 40% of PRL5 and HZN 60%. PRL5 was subject to a sale process wherby Santos sold the 40% to HZN which was onselling 50% to Talisman. Maybe STO had its interest reduced as it was the operator of PRL5 and thus responsible for satisfying the conditions of the license. I agree the announcement from HZN leaves a lot of things up in the air and should have been a bit more detailed. Hopefully they will clarify the situation. Considering the price of HZN dropped from 38c to 31c within 3 days from the annoucement that they had not been able to renew the license, it certainly is a bit of a muted response in the shareprice.
  12. Talking to myself again, looks like the impetus in the shareprice the last two days might be because of Roger Montgomery mentioning ZGL in his blog and on Peter Switzer's show. http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/
  13. Still on a PE of 6.3 if first half results are repeated in the second half, despite the 12.5% gain yesterday and another 6% gain today. Looks like Ventrade provided most of the sold shares, so has done pretty well to find buyers for this amount of shares dropped into the market.
  14. On highest volume since listing as far as I can see. No news that I'm aware off.
  15. Anybody on here invested in these? Last post nearly two years ago. They are an ASX listed asian manufacturer of equipment including cement mixers, condensate recovery plants, offshore marine equipment, hydraulic drives for agricultural equipment, precision engineered medical equipment etc. They havent sat back during the recent financial crisis but have increased their capacity, building a new factory in Thailand as well as a few small acquisitions. NPAT over the last three halves has increased from S$3.61m to 6.53m and last half 8.69m. If the last half result is repeated in this half PE will be 5. Ventrade, which acquired the bulk of their shares in 2004 for just over S$500,000 have been selling down their stake at a substantial profit over the last year or so, putting a bit of a cap on the shareprice. There is a buyback in place with 16million shares still to buy, which was suspended while half year results were released. Only other disadvantage I can see is that the Sim family seem to treat it as a family company. May benefit from the rebuilding that is going to be necessary after the recent disasters, and from the rising oil and agricultural prices.
  16. farmer fred

    HOG

    Certainly was a great announcement and seems to have removed any doubts remaining about their first well. Both price and volume seem to be on the up now. The news that gas prices in the Ukraine will be up 30% by the end of the year should lift revenue above the $40m per year and profit by an even greater percentage. Will have the cash flow now to continue with their drilling programme without needing to raise any more cash. Chernetska will be more speculative than Sorochynska, then back to more development wells in Sorochynska. Should hear soon about the reserve upgrade, that might give the shareprice the next major boost.
  17. farmer fred

    ASZ

    Hi Ozgas, I think they were promising a 40% growth in revenue this FY, so they have a bit to make up in the second half. However their revenue is usually higher in the second half, so they might still get there. In any case the selling over the last half year that has seen its shareprice drop from $1.50 to less than $1.00 seems to be overdone. Just the falling knife is keeping me from entering at the moment, maybe a few others awaiting the same. Cheers ff
  18. farmer fred

    ADE

    From BPT monthly drilling report "Early results show Total Organic Content (“TOCâ€ÂÂÂÂÂ) values in the REM shale sequence compare very favorably to numbers seen in the gas shale plays of the United States. Gas evolving from the core samples and good mud gas readings taken whilst drilling confirm that the REM target section contains gas outside of structural closure, which was one of the key objectives of this drilling campaign." More analysis to come later. From their presentation today, if US values were to apply here at $10,000 per acre, their acreage in the Cooper Basin alone would be worth $1.2B, so good to see that TOC values compare favourably to the US shales. Even if we applied 10% of the values in the US, that alone would double the market cap of ADE. Reported after market close, so might give both ADE and BPT a boost in the morning.
  19. farmer fred

    TAN

    Hi Triage, If you look at page 19 of the preliminary final report, it looks like they have forward contracts for all their cotton at $494 per bale, with 65% as physical bales and the remainder on an area contract. Pima they have secured at $715 per bale. Cheers ff
  20. farmer fred

    ADE

    They had a rights issue April last year at 15c, so there are probably some who have sat on these for quite a while at a loss and cashing in now to get their money back. Hopefully once we clear this convincingly we'll be on our way to higher levels.
  21. farmer fred

    ADE

    True Razor, thats why I said potential and down the track. We still have a fair way to go, but should get some sort of indication of whats down there when they fracc the two wells, which should happen next month after they finish the second well, if I remember right. With the current controversy on CSG, might make this a bit more likely to be commercial. Certainly seems to be the way they are headed in the US, and I dont think we'll have the worries with the local population in the Cooper Basin. It will cost a lot of money to develop, so all potential at the moment I would agree.
  22. Cant believe DTL's performance in the last few months, the top up I did last year this time has doubled if you add in dividends. The market has finally given DTL the PE which it deserves with the growth profile over the past few years. Will be interesting to see if they can keep increasing shareholder value, in the meantime the 5%+ fully franked dividend yield will keep me hanging onto mine.
  23. farmer fred

    ADE

    BHP paid $4.75 billion for 487,000 acres of shale gas in the US, which coincidentally is the same size as BPT's acreage in the Nappamerri trough. ADE has 39,537 acres which on equivalent value would make this worth $385m. Of course they are much further advanced in developing the gas in the US, but it gives us some idea of potential value. Maybe down the track BHP might be interested in developing shale closer to home. Hold both BPT and ADE in anticipation.
  24. Hi Triage, Thanks for your continued flow of interesting articles in the ag sector. Looks like we have another hiccup on the way tonight up north. Hopefully there wont be too much damage up there. Heard someone from the canegrowers mention cane will be ok as long as the cyclone doesnt get to category 4. All this excess water should set the ag sector up for a good year next year, with plenty of moisture in soils and storages full everywhere. Thats of course if the weather gods are kinder to us next year. Rabobank reckons we'll see a record acreage planted under wheat for the coming winter crop. "While the country is recovering from devastating floods in parts of eastern Australia, high prices, easing drought conditions in Western Australia, and good soil moisture in the country's east and west would encourage farmers to seed more acres, said Wayne Gordon, a grains analyst at Rabobank. Gordon said farmers could plant well in excess of 14 million hectares, particularly if Western Australia, normally the country's grain top exporting state, returned to average rain after suffering the driest season on record. The reality is that farmers will plant as much as they can if they have moisture in the ground so we could see a record wheat planting of something like 14 million hectares plus," he said. The previous record was 14 million hectares in 2009/10 when 21.9 million tonnes was harvested nation-wide, according to the government's chief commodities forecaster. Although planting of the 2011/12 crop does not start until April, Gordon estimated that next season's harvest yields 25.2 million tonnes based on average yields as farmers plant every acre available." http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf...N9?OpenDocument
  25. farmer fred

    HOG

    Looks like everything is online and ready to go, only awaiting finalisation of paperwork. Even if not completed in time for feb 5th deadline will be selling through the company that owns the plant the well is tied into. Should relieve any anxiety about needing to raise capital.
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