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farmer fred

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Everything posted by farmer fred

  1. farmer fred


    Pretty good article in the bull about this, a few years old now. Concludes that its all a bit of a gray area and ultimately the ATO makes the final ruling as always. Most pertinant part to you might be this: "ATO TR2005/15 also concludes that a loss from a CFD transaction where the gain would have been assessable is an allowable deduction" So if you are trading you should be able to deduct any losses from gain on other shares. If you want to take it off other income you would have to satisfy the non commercial losses rules for a business. As always only IMHO and check with your accountant. http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=121
  2. farmer fred


    Not too pretty at all. You'd think most shareholders would wait until all details are out. They may trade through CDI's for a while allowing shareholders to get the benefit of the Nasdaq listing. After all this is supposed to be for the good of the shareholders who wont vote for it unless it is for their benefit. Still I suppose the institutions will still be able to trade them on the Nasdaq. Hopefully it will bring out some other predator and we get a decent recompense for our shares. Plastic, Gsk still sell Relenza for BTA.
  3. farmer fred


    They needed a nasdaq listing to get full benefit of the $231 million barda grant. Not to sure how this will affect the shareprice, would have been happier with a dual listing. Hopefully they will come out with a few more details later.
  4. farmer fred


    Anybody holding this? Looks like a pretty good rise this year, accelerated after reporting a 34% increase in sales for the third quarter. Costs are fairly fixed so most of this increase should flow through to the bottom line. Another Australian biotech with a great story, hopefully wont go the way of CST and BTA and get sold cheaply overseas.
  5. Looks like your right, Nash looks better even than Blue Ridge with 1P of 22.4 million barrels and 2P of 41.8 million barrels after only two wells. With Bollings still to come and the increased acreage at Blue Ridge, should reach 200 million barrels of 2P by the end of the year. Just need them to get their finger out now and get the extra rigs into service so they can start drilling those 150 wells per annum.
  6. FWIW, RBS Morgan have upgraded their target price from $7.73 to $8.45. Mainly on the expected increase in cashflow now that the Alcan and Ball acquisitions have been integrated, and deployment of these increased cashflows to get double digit earnings growth over the next few years, as well as maintaining a good dividend yield.
  7. Have a look at Davo's post on page 9 of this thread, you'll see that most oilers are valued at well above the $7 per 2P reserve that MAD is valued at. NRI for MAD is closer to 75%, they were being conservative in their calculations. All US oilers pay royalties to landholders, but this is offset by much cheaper other costs over there. No oiler discounts their 2P for royalties only for working interest. The biggest factor in pricing is potential. I agree its not the bargain now that it was three months ago, however I'm happy to hold onto the bulk of my original shares. I dont expect another 500% in three months, however I think there is still multibagger potential in the long run.
  8. You need to learn to look ahead a little bit, you'll do far better with your share picks. Reserves at the moment are only from their original Blue Ridge acreage, so can expect multiples of this down the track. All oil companies pay royalties to various degrees, none discount their reserves due to this. You have to remember they are getting about $120 per barrel due to having high napthenic value oil, which gets a minimum surcharge of $10 per barrel, so the $100 allows for $20 running costs.
  9. Despite the knockers, this continues to fly. Must be looking ahead to the 150+ wells per annum they will be capable of once they modify and man the new rigs they have acquired and the upgrade in reserves coming in a fortnight. Surprises even me when it takes off the way it has the last two days, not that I'm complaining.
  10. farmer fred


    EXE's land is in pastoral country, so I would think there would be nowhere near the problems encountered on the Darling Downs. In the end politicians will side with the money, not to many votes left in farming.
  11. RBS Morgan is a bit more downbeat about the takeover valuation for GNC. They use a lower EBIT forecast than this year ie for an average season to give a valuation of $13.94 in a takeover. Then they decrease this again because of Graincorp being a smaller company to $11.11. Personally sounds a bit pessimistic to me. I'll be hanging onto mine for another year with this season shaping up to be a good year again with the possibility of another special dividend and the threat of a takeover hanging over it. Chance of the $A easing wont hurt either.
  12. Looks like Viterra bid by Glencore is going ahead now. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/g...billion-1-.html "Glencore International Plc (GLEN), the largest publicly traded commodity supplier, agreed to buyViterra (VT) Inc. for C$6.1 billion ($6.15 billion) to add grain assets in Canada and Australia as growth in Asia boosts demand. Glencore will pay C$16.25 a share, it said in a statement yesterday. Glencore agreed to the deal in partnership withAgrium Inc. (AGU) and Richardson International Ltd., who will buy the majority of Viterra’s Canadian and other assets for about C$2.6 billion in cash, according to the statement. Viterra dropped 0.4 percent to C$15.91 at the close yesterday in Toronto. Glencore fell 1.6 percent to 413.8 pence in London. The deal values Viterra at 14 times earnings before interest and tax, compared with the median of 16 times for 10 comparable deals since 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg" Gives an interesting comparison of what might be offered for GNC in the event of a takeover. 14 times EBIT would value GNC at $18.50. No wonder our ag companies are slowly disappearing.
  13. Earnings 1HY12 due 27th March. Looks like alliance between Sumitomo and Nufarm is growing well and benefitting both companies. 1HY11 was a good season , so if they can match that should be good.
  14. farmer fred


    BTA should have results of Phase 2 trial for its HRV trial out next quarter. As well we should get a proposal from management to take BTA to the US, maybe with a merger with a US company or a NASDAQ listing. They have also been awarded a patent to a molecule which Biocryst has high hopes for in the treatment of Hepatis C, and Biocryst is not to happy about it. Maybe able to negotiate a bit of a royalty stream from them. "BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ (BCRX) stock has been on a tear, more than doubling since the beginning of the year, on hope for an experimental hepatitis C drug. The company hasn’t even begun testing the drug in human studies but has said it wants to seek a partner to help pay for such trials. After testing its drug BCX5191 in a pre-clinical study against a developmental drug being studied by Gilead (GILD), BioCryst’s top medical officer William Sheridan said the company’s drug “has the potential to be the backbone of best-in-class oral treatment regimens for hepatitis C patients.†The rapid acceleration of BioCryst’s shares is another illustration of the hot hepatitis C drug market. But the company hit a snag. In a Securities and Exchange filing Monday, BioCryst says the US Patent and Trademark Office granted a patent to an Australian company, Biota Holdings. The patent was “improvidently granted,†BioCryst says. And the company will fight to “correct an apparent error†made by the patent office." http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/biotech...3/2012/id/39875
  15. I'm never convinced that any company is the best value play in the market. Thats why I keep looking, I just havent found it yet.
  16. Had a look at this a while ago and was a bit worried about lack of funds and dilution. Certainly seems to have a lot of upside possible so will have another closer look. Thanks for that. Hard to find anything with better potential than MAD though, sold most of my other oilers to buy this , but should diversify a bit again.
  17. You realise these are conventional wells, not shale wells, so they dont have to frac to get the oil out? They also dont have the decline rate because of that. I dont agree they are priced for massive success, they are not as massively cheap as they were last year, but I've been looking for other oilers to put my profit into but I cant find anything else to compare in value. Of course it's always possible I'm somewhat biased so DYOR.
  18. Have a look at the independant reserves report(page 32 of the reserve report) included in the prospectus when they listed. MAD have elected to choke back their wells to enhance complete drainage of each zone so I would imagine their decline would be slower than this. When they enter the next zone after draining each zone, we start from IP again, but only have to spend about $15-20,000.
  19. Has been making steady gains over the last few months while our market has been going nowhere. Great hedge against our dollar going down.
  20. EXE seems pretty expensive to me at $108 million MC with no reserves, no production and the present uncertainty over CSG with fraccing problems and the low price of gas.
  21. Those 250 wells will be producing $500,000 per day for at least 15 years, enough to drill 2 more wells per day. Have to remember that $250,000 costs include drilling and all connection and finishing costs. Size isnt always the most important criteria. 95% success rate on drilling. Sounds like exponential growth to me.
  22. About half of that was PBT. HY profit was $5.336m and they paid $1.444m in income tax. Not to bad for the very early stage of development they are at.
  23. MAD cashflow $5million + per quarter and increasing EXE cashflow $0 MAD P2 72.8mm bbls EXE P2 0 bbls MAD well costs $240,000 EXE shale well plus fraccing costs $10 million + I would rather have the problem of so much oil that it will take me many years to drain it all than no reserves and having to spend a lot of money to see if there is oil there and whether it is economical to drain it all.
  24. Saw that report yesterday but didnt see much new in it. However they did say it was for institutional investors who were visiting this week, so maybe they were impressed with the operations over there. If thats the case should see more buying pressure tomorrow.
  25. Hi Nifty When this one moves it moves a long way. No news I can see, probably get a please explain from the ASX . Only need one more day like today and we'll be over the $ mark. Amazing lift in the matchup at close, encouraging for tomorrow. Cheers ff
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