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  1. triage

    Potash

    Danakali is one wolvie's old favourites. Wolvie was never the most talkative chap and used to get the sh!ts with posters, including me, having a whinge for the lack of progress Danakali was making at their gun Colluili prospect in Eritrea. Fantastic project but the continued lack of progress has become its defining feature. Someone early on gave me the tip about Kalium Lakes Ltd but I was aware that a number of potash projects were similarly to Danakali just spinning their wheels and decided Kalium Lakes was more of the same but was the very start of the hard slog towards production. I recently saw that Kalium Lakes seems to be well on the way to production ... another one I didn't get right....
  2. Looks like I got this one wrong. It is a recent spin-off from Rox Resources which I started watching mid last year. Rox had been into the nickel but had not made any progress with their blocks so moved into the Youanmi area of the Murchison. They got a 70% holding on an old mine from Venus Metal and in May June last year they released some very promising hits from near the old pit, in an area they called Grace. Was unusual in that the hits came in the granite, not the greenstone and in one of their ASX announcements they showed a pan of visible gold which they said had come from a hole they were in the process of assaying. There was some reasonable prospect of replicating the success of Spectrum at the nearby Penny West (which from memory they picked up one or two million and sold to Ramelius for $300m). Bottom line is the holes and many others turned out to be as good as dusters and the management went all tight-lipped and kept missing self-imposed deadlines. All up Rox does have some good ounces in and around Youanmi but my personal view is that the management have butchered the opportunity up till now. One of the problems they had was the legacy nickel ground, which was hanging around like a dag. First up they said that they would get BHP to toll treat the nickel (good grades just sub-commercial amount of it), when that didn't happen they said that they would sell it off in a trade sale, but that didn't happen. Then they said they would open IPO it - nah - so in the end they gave some Cannon shares to Rox holders and got Rox and its holders to buy the rest. I thought Cannon might struggle because if there was much to it then surely Rox would have made the best of it already. But looks like it is doing okay, which is great news for the Rox holders that decided to hang on in there. For me though, I apply the geriatric Warren Buffet's mantra of buying the company for the quality of management. Not the right choice in this case but ya can't be always right .
  3. Hi again alonso. I still have a few questions about this stock but may put my toe in for a while. Everyone hears when one of these type of stock goes stratospheric of course but it really is a game mostly of luck, even more so than with junior miners imo. I have a rubbish record with IT stocks (just as I have with medical stocks ) For me this is more of a top down punt than a bottom up analysis. I really do think that one of the ramifications of COVID will be a quantum leap in various applications of software / edge computing / AI / blockchain. It almost seems an accepted truth that in various applications progress that would have taken a decade or so to happen is taking place in months now. And AUSTRAC seem to take their regulatory enforcement role very seriously. That this firm seems to be getting nibbles from some of the big boppers does suggest that they are close to having a sellable product. Anyway, here goes.
  4. triage

    CRICKET

    Also I read somewhere their wildly successful domestic 20 20 competition was to kick off before the 5th test was scheduled to finish. Probably small consolation to the Indian test players but now the test match is cancelled they can start getting paid the huge bucks from playing in that competition a week earlier.
  5. I see Sylvia Tulloch stays mum about her long-term and deep involvement in the trainwreck at one time called Dyesol, and that the 2 companies she says she founded and took to ASX listing were, I seem to recall, actually in substance the same which the Tullocks pheonixed after the collapse of the first iteration. Once bitten twice shy for me.
  6. Gee, they've done well but the Chinese taint would be enough to put me off. Clearly, to me, there is a concerted effort by the Chinese to control the lithium market. Not so much the $34m investment, more the binding offtake agreement. In my experience the Chinese tend to only play fair when there is no other option. Also not sure of the atmospherics of the Australian government actively boosting their project.But if I had been lucky enough to buy some CXO last November I would probably be far less clear-sighted on this. Even the big lithium players like Pilbara and Orocobre have had a real spring in their step for the last few months.
  7. Mick - the Friday lunchtime webinars that sharecafe have started running are a good format and a good product. I keep checking back to see what eb, you, nips and a few others are up to and from time to time nipper provides an interesting rabbit hole to disappear into for a while. If you decide to pull the pin, thanks for all your contributions over the years and all the best to you going forward.
  8. Yeah, EB, it is a right royal stuff up alright. I read somewhere that Dr Norman Swan - the ABC science dude - is saying that last year pfizer offered to supply enough vaccine to do the entire Australian population upfront but Morrison wanted to haggle. I had the AstraZenica jab a couple of weeks ago and it has been very rough. And the other thing is that with the pfizer vaccine you get the second jab 3 weeks after the first whereas with the AZ jab it is three months. So by having so many people being forced to have the AZ jab they have delayed full coverage by a couple of months
  9. If I've got it right it seems they drilled through a nugget and tried to make more of it than they should have. Rox Resources did a similar thing a while back but subsequent assay results from there also showed that the hit was just a flash in the pan. The boss of Rox is guilty of a fair bit more than that imo but in itself over-blowing a drill result is a good way for management to lose the trust of your average punter. Actually I had a bit of a look at ODY yesterday and it seems quite similar to Rox, both being brown fields explorers. Rox's main issue, other than an overpaid underperforming MD, is that it has a fair amount of resources, but some of it is complicated and none of it close enough to a working mill. I think I saw that Odyssey's Bottle Dump deposit is not that far from the Marda mine which Ramelius is hauling back down to its Edna May pit. But if Odyssey's ore is all stranded then it seems toppy to me (yeah, but I'm not an agile trader so I'm looking at ODY differently).
  10. triage

    IPO's

    I haven't played in the main pool for yonks - earnings? what are earnings? - but those levels of PE suggest that the company is about to roll out a killer competitor for Facebook or Amazon don't they? Somehow they are making what is effectively a utility sexy it would appear ...
  11. nip, there is a fascinating story over at hc regarding Danakali. A poster popped up a few months ago claiming to be a member of a group of investors that call themselves the tenbagger club. He claimed that they include independent wealthy semi-retired investors - he claims to live in Thailand - that identify seriously undervalued stocks with viable projects and force through changes to how the chosen companies operate with the intention of hitting ten baggers or better. The poster claimed that a large holder of DNK was flooding the market with shares as it attempted to sell out but only resulted in the share price sinking. He claimed that the big seller had to be taken out, that management of Danakali needed to be cleaned up, that the company had to start moving towards production so as it re-interest the financiers to lend money and a couple of other things. At that early stage I thought what this poster was saying had all the markings of either someone deluded or someone attempting a classic pump and dump. Not sure what it proves but the investment club even has its own website: https://10baggerclub.com. But guess what? Since that poster appeared on hc the big seller was taken out and the share price jumped from about 30 cents and sinking to about 50 cents, the CEO and CFO were axed with the chairman - who has a large holding of shares - converted into a executive, the company trimmed its admin costs by about $1m a year, the company appointed a broker to revitalise its dormant presence in the UK and now it was able to have an over-subscription from sophisticated investors of $20m to get the initial project workings underway. Pretty much everything the poster predicted had to happen actually happened. He is now saying that the final debt and equity raise is all but in the bag, so to speak and Danakali will move ahead to develop the project. To me, as it currently stands, either the poster has access to inside info so he can post what he knows the company is about to do OR he is conveying some form of the truth. From initially being highly skeptical of the veracity of the poster's claims I have reached the point of not having an opinion. I told myself early on that the real test of what the poster was claiming wass if the company was able to raise funds, which it has now done though only raising a fraction of what is required to get the project commissioned and running. There used to be a prolific poster on ss, I think before your time, called King Baz who was always super-enthusiastic and grandiose in his claims. Fantastic entertainment, as he not only mounted well argued plausible arguments he sprinkled it with anecdotes of his flamboyant lifestyle, but ultimately he floundered. This phuketguy and his 10 bagger club is a step up even from our King Baz. Wolvie used to post on ss about Danakali, not any more though. He occasionally posts on the DNK threads on hc, but mainly to complain about people complaining about the lack of progress by the company. He has the sh!ts with me for that reason, though what the 10baggerclub has apparently managed to achieve in only a few months shows fairly conclusively that the previous management actually were the blockage (I think wolvie's point is that having a whinge achieves nothing but I am not as stoic as he is).
  12. triage

    DVP

    Howdy to you, denpal, I just checked and I see you have been posting on ss but it is ages since I've read one of yours. On your comment about management quality being the most important factor to consider I read an article about Warren Buffet a whiles back. It pointed out that while Buffet first made his name and fortune as a disciple of Benjamin Graham's value investing theories - which entirely focuses on the quality of the company - in recent decades he has undergone a paradigm shift and now gives heavy weight to the quality of the managers. Goes to the maxim that you are better with a top quality manager in control of an average company than with an average manager in control of a top quality company. Anyway, I see NXR is up around 18% again today after 10% on Friday. As they say on hc, it looks like I've missed that train. Choo choo. Bill Beament's investment in Venturex has gone from $37m to about $150m in a couple of months. Money for nothing, chicks for free, stuff.
  13. triage

    DVP

    Back from a short break .... I see that ex-Northern Star maestro, Bill Beamont, recently paid $37m to buy a third of this company and will become an executive director of it from 1 July (after his NST commitments are met). Also Mineral Resources also just bought a huge chunk of the company. It has been dawdling along towards developing a copper and zinc mine in the Pilberra but with all this new money and high energy leadership I think it will quickly break into a gallop. I did come here to ask if anyone here has any views about the recent action but the fact that this is the first new post on this thread in over 2 years then I think I have the answer to my question.
  14. triage

    ORE

    Seeing how Orocobre is not paying any premium for the Galaxy shares I wonder whether one of the big boppers in the sector will attempt to come over the top. If the Chinese really want to dominate this market then money should be no object for them. Orocobre and Galaxy have a no talk, no due diligence rule in place so if another bidder emerges they will have to go on public info and a conviction that this lithium cycle is just kicking off.
  15. Shame there was no contingency planning for vaccine supplies here like there was put in place in countries like the UK and Canada. More and more it looks like it was the state governments that steered us through the COVID surges despite the worst efforts of the feds. The vaccine roll-out was where Morrison could have showed his competence but ... (as macrobusiness noted: "I don't hold the syringe, mate").
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