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Everything posted by JohnHoward

  1. In reply to: datum on Monday 06/08/07 02:21am So it seems most commentors are saying that the problem is far more extensive than first thought. I would hazard a guess that this is not limited to the subprime mortgage market, that defaults will pick up in "more secure" loans. What will be interesting is the RBA meeting this week. All indicators are saying we should have a rate rise. If we don't get a rate rise, well, it may signal that the RBA is worried about our ability to repay our personal debt. Things are about to get very messy in my opinion. Time will tell
  2. JohnHoward


    In reply to: early birds on Friday 03/08/07 05:28pm thanks early birds. From what you are saying it doesn't look like the bid will go through. I might track CGJ for a while. See what happens. I think it is ripe for takeover though. BTW, Whats wrong with my name? I could pick another, but then it would be an alias. Don't like alias's.
  3. JohnHoward


    In reply to: carefully on Friday 03/08/07 04:54pm I must profess my ignorance, but I thought the takeover was done. That Westfarmers had takenover CML, hence the CGL. Where is it at? Is Coles part of WES? If not does the clause whatever in the takeover about the SP dropping look like coming into effect? Please pardon my ignorance, but I haven't been following this.
  4. Our market up slightly. I have been watching SUN. It is steadly going backwards, whereas the other banks today made gains. I thought of the insurer arm, but that doesn't gell as QBE and IAG are not down the same %. Unfortunately I own SUN via my SMSF, so will watch closely, could be they have exposurer to the US subprime via their insurance arm. I am putting Wall St last night and the ASX today down to the proverbial dead cat.
  5. In reply to: Sav on Thursday 02/08/07 06:02pm Yes Sav, some hard fact housing data, not only from the US, but here as well will be most interesting. In my opinion gold bullion would be a better bet than gold stocks, I have a feeling that stocks may face "exposurure via hedgeing" to the subprime. Interesting times the next few months methinks. Where we put our $$$ may decide how financially secure we are in twenty years time. ( I doubt if I will be alive then, but I still have kids). The other factor that should be explored is the world political makeup. If the US continues to slide, then the $US dollar benchmark will go, along with the US being "king of the world" so to speak. Which political steps in, if any? The implications of what is unfolding at the moment extend, in my opinion, into areas we haven't even contemplated
  6. In reply to: Sav on Thursday 02/08/07 05:32pm Thanks sav, Good article. reading it reinforced my, and perhaps many others view, that the fiat, paper money is not that good an idea. So perhaps rather than converting to cash we may be better off with the standard that cash replaced; gold. Lets face it, you cannot print gold.
  7. JohnHoward


    In reply to: JohnHoward on Friday 27/07/07 02:45pm And the sellers keep coming. Who are they? and why, when I buyback has been abbounced? The stench of fish is getting stronger. But I bet the ASX surveillience lot have their pegs firmly attached to their noses. A waste of money that lot.
  8. In reply to: krk004 on Thursday 02/08/07 07:57am All good points. I remember the NAB trader fiasco too. But what I am trying to get a "feel" for is how much of aussie institutions, be they banks, super funds insurers are at "risk", directly or indirectly. I think we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg so to speak. The other point I am trying to gage is interest rates. If the keep rising then more people start to default, then housing may get cheaper, but not necessarily affordable. So if this is on the cards then cash is perhaps king. You can then buy real estate at good prices, and rents should be high. I bought my first house back in 1978, interest rate was 17.5%, I sold it 18 months later for a gain of 200%. If it wasn't for three divorces, being a single parent, (yep she got the $$$ and I got the kids), I would be very comfortable, but hey thats life. The current climate is reminiscent of the mid seventies. Anyway, thats my two bobs worth.
  9. In reply to: JohnHoward on Friday 27/07/07 03:43pm I ask the question again, (I hate sounding like a school teacher, hate em); How much exposure do our illustrious institutions have? And for all you "grey nomads", how much do you really have to spend of the kids inheritence. As an extra, how much of other currencies are there in this? Maybe its time to pull money out of the stock market, and well, put it in bricks and morter. An oxymoron perhaps ... but...well...think kiddies
  10. Just a few thoughts; The current selloff is mainly due to the US subprime and housing. Do aussie banks, and for that matter our funds and Super funds have exposure, and thereby risk losing big $$$? If they don't have exposure is the current ramp up in mortgage foreclosures in the ble collar areas of our capital cities an indication of trouble for our banks, similar to the current US problems? If housing is suddenly made "more affordable", will we exasperate the mortgage problems?
  11. JohnHoward


    In reply to: Sea change on Friday 27/07/07 01:04pm And the 1c divi would cost about the same as the onmarket buyback. I am not going to comment on Stanton, except to say he is ex telstra, from the days when my dog could manager better than their managers. But, maybe they might suprise us all and come out with some good results in August.
  12. JohnHoward


    Hmmm. Don't tell me the employees of PEO are getting shares as a bonus! Either that or the "Fab 4" Directors want to offload some shares. Forget it mate, not even my namesake would fall for thie "old shareback scam". If the company has surplus cash, then a dividend would make more sense, and also, funnily enough, push the SP up. But then the "Fab 4" would probably make a loss selling Whale Meat to Japan.
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