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kahuna1

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  1. CDC serious events post vaccine .... 180 million USA shots and about 50 million have had 2 shots .... 80 odd million a single shot. https://vaers.hhs.gov/data.html 60,607 Serious events. This is Pfizer and Moderna vaccine. A rate of well over 300 per million. About 30 times the worst vaccine in common use prior to this. Reactions for oxford astra normally occur with the first shot ..... running at about 110 per million via UK yellow card site numbers on 27 million shots. Pfizer and Moderna shots are clearly, without a doubt more of an extreme concern. Right now media is worrying about Oxford via what appears to be a hatchet job on their vaccine. Every year people get sick. There is a a background rate for people getting blood clots. Its about 1/1000 a year ... so over 27 million shots .... one would expect in say a 2 week monitoring period some to get blood-clots irrespective of the vaccine. Massively more than the 35 or so reported. Again for the low platlet count ... ones, likely via diagnosed auto immune or non diagnosed. Rarer but still at 100 a year and 100 unidentified, same sort of thing, Moderna and Pfizer not getting any flack for rates off the scale and Oxford/ Astra vaccine with rates at 33% of them .... is being roasted. No data on J+J as yet. Data on Pfizer and Modern vaccine is actually damming if any journalist actually looked. Overall not happy with any of them. If say a shingles vaccine had 10 extreme reactions per million and was not seen as a good thing, how does 110 or 300 reactions make it any better ? Not anti vaccine, quite the opposite, however more science and less USA based fairy floss would be appreciated prior to getting my own vaccine. Of course that decision is out of my hands anyhow due to extreme incompetence bordering upon propaganda. Its unlikely the vaccine will become available to the under 65 till say October 2021 and by then, lots more data will be in. The fact that Pfizer claimed an anaphylactic reaction to their vaccine is normal, in a Queensland news conference is disgusting as the Chief MD there who said its ok for those with severe allergies or auto immune issues to take this junk when every other nation is not recommending this to occur. Thankfully she has 6 months to work out the science prior to getting any meaning flu vaccine supply. Yes its normal to almost die from a vaccine on the spot !! Make what you will of this data .... its hard data.. Factual ..... 60,607 ... reactions severe ones. In the trials of Moderna and Pfizer which totaled over 50,000 .... magically NO one ... not a single person had an extreme adverse reaction. Now the rate is clearly in the USA well above 300 per million .... or 15 per 50,000 ... Begs to question did they actually just sift out the results they did not like in vaccine trials ? It is not credible or possible for this not to have occurred. Maybe they just called it a moderate reaction .... almost dying as the Canadian criteria for an extreme reaction calls it ... Canada runs a decent site on vaccine reactions, all be it 3-4 weeks in arrears. Its terminology is a serous event is an extreme life threatening one and its clearly running at around 120 per million of life threatening events which are clearly immediate type reactions to the vaccine. Enjoy
  2. No reactions at all
  3. Following on TLS ... but encapsulates views for now. Rates zero for a long time .. covid around fora long time. Blah blah blah .... Ho hum ... Best case results TLS confirmed and 16 cents dividend for 2021.Outlook far better than I hoped. Actually confirming the second half dividend for 2021 ... what they expect highly unusual ... of course ignored on the main by idiots buying banks who reported, well ... CBA was not inspiring nor many other old high yeilding stocks now in tatters. AGL actually looks lke a train wreck on forward stuff yet market did not hammer it too much.. As to selling towers, its likely to occur and will only add to the picture. No reason for me to sell at this stage despite a bit higher. Market seems to love banks for some mythical longer term dividends. Reality is that they are unlikely to go above 70% of pre Covid and cap raisings diluting the shares. Bottom line, say for CBA its unlikely to even get to $4- in total a share by 2022 let alone 2021. Its just paid $1.50 .... for the half and whilst the final likely better ... suspect its at say $3.70 for 2021 so well under 5% and in fact 4.25%. TLS well its a frog, I know its a frog ... but its price and outlook next 2 years compelling. Yield at 5% .... compared to CBA at 4.25%. Banks paid out far too much in dividends and did not retain enough capital ... so looking forward the payout ratio will be LOWER and they must maintain higher capital adequacy rates than previously. Market of course, as always disagrees with this for now. They love the banks, ignore the reality that ... the cost of lending and maintaining adequate reserves massively changed in the last 2 years. I have no idea the impacts of Job-keeper and seeker being reduced but unlikely to be good for banks or TLS .... the risk being more bank wise verses TLS. As vaccines roll out, disturbing to say the least some reactions occurring Moderna and Pfizer and yep being reported ... but swept under carpet by USA based vaccines whilst attacking all others .... Well J+J vaccine single shot seems fine with far less reactions. Oxford .. whilst not perfect, it does seem to prevent 100% of very serious cases less so for moderate ones with new variants of Covid 19 emerging ... only time will tell. Same for the other one approved as well, less hassle and reactions than RNA based ones. I suspect we have an Endemic ... not a pandemic and will be dealing with covid 19 for years. More papers coming out with strong evidence of lack of immunity to covid 19 and reinfections in the thousands ... clearly documented. Much like a bloody cold .... Again .. unknown but ... for banks which market seems to love, massive fiscal support is going away. Not sure any form of meaningful overseas travel or migration occurs for some time. Bottom line, I suspect the market has it all arse about face as per normal and whilst its having a hate affair with many high dividend payers such as TLS and say utilities and many other REITS which are less at risk even with ongoing covid flareups paying say 6% or so .... keeping pace with inflation if that occurs and preferring to back the banks in dreams of some magic recovery when fiscal support is already drying up. Lastly RBA has made it as clear as one can be. We are at 0.1% for a very very very long time. 2024 and honestly likely beyond that.They are not happy about the currency. Not worried about bubbles .... inflation or anything else. As Lowe pointed out the ASX is below where it was, house prices are merely back to 2 year ago levels. Wages growth ... virtually impossible right now to see with a lot dislocated and more happening as Job keeper evaporates .... job seeker already cut and likely even more in coming months not say to the $40- a day level but say $50-. For me, yield and safety .... boring but ... as in say 2011 same thing, different times but being paid massively above the cash rate to hold an asset over time is the only course. Sure USA so full of hot air may pop ... or flop a bit. Some techs at insane levels If I close my eyes and take the 16 cents plus franking credits .... so 20 cents effective verses 0.1% ... Time will tell. Enjoy. Will think about TLS if and when its say 15% higher and by then possibly Optus has stopped discounting its third rate mobile service outside the CBD and TLS did actually sneakily raise its plans by $5 a month of late not yet reflected in the numbers. Sounds small buts its one hell of a whack given the low inflation environment outside the idiots buying bitcoin or Game stop. Cheers PS ... I note many analysts were calling a 13 cent dividend ... TLS came out and actually said 8 cents now and they believe 16 cents for 2021, market of course ... did not a lot considering this. Made the valuations in the $3.70 range more likely.
  4. Ho hum ... Best case results confirmed and 16 cents dividend for 2021.Outlook far better than I hoped. Actually confirming the second half dividend for 2021 ... what they expect highly unusual ... of course ignored on the main by idiots buying banks who reported, well ... CBA was not inspiring nor many other old high yeilding stocks now in tatters. AGL actually looks lke a train wreck on forward stuff yet market did not hammer it too much.. As to selling towers, its likely to occur and will only add to the picture. No reason for me to sell at this stage despite a bit higher. Market seems to love banks for some mythical longer term dividends. Reality is that they are unlikely to go above 70% of pre Covid and cap raisings diluting the shares. Bottom line, say for CBA its unlikely to even get to $4- in total a share by 2022 let alone 2021. Its just paid $1.50 .... for the half and whilst the final likely better ... suspect its at say $3.70 for 2021 so well under 5% and in fact 4.25%. TLS well its a frog, I know its a frog ... but its price and outlook next 2 years compelling. Yield at 5% .... compared to CBA at 4.25%. Banks paid out far too much in dividends and did not retain enough capital ... so looking forward the payout ratio will be LOWER and they must maintain higher capital adequacy rates than previously. Market of course, as always disagrees with this for now. They love the banks, ignore the reality that ... the cost of lending and maintaining adequate reserves massively changed in the last 2 years. I have no idea the impacts of Job-keeper and seeker being reduced but unlikely to be good for banks or TLS .... the risk being more bank wise verses TLS. As vaccines roll out, disturbing to say the least some reactions occurring Moderna and Pfizer and yep being reported ... but swept under carpet by USA based vaccines whilst attacking all others .... Well J+J vaccine single shot seems fine with far less reactions. Oxford .. whilst not perfect, it does seem to prevent 100% of very serious cases less so for moderate ones with new variants of Covid 19 emerging ... only time will tell. Same for the other one approved as well, less hassle and reactions than RNA based ones. I suspect we have an Endemic ... not a pandemic and will be dealing with covid 19 for years. More papers coming out with strong evidence of lack of immunity to covid 19 and reinfections in the thousands ... clearly documented. Much like a bloody cold .... Again .. unknown but ... for banks which market seems to love, massive fiscal support is going away. Not sure any form of meaningful overseas travel or migration occurs for some time. Bottom line, I suspect the market has it all arse about face as per normal and whilst its having a hate affair with many high dividend payers such as TLS and say utilities and many other REITS which are less at risk even with ongoing covid flareups paying say 6% or so .... keeping pace with inflation if that occurs and preferring to back the banks in dreams of some magic recovery when fiscal support is already drying up. Lastly RBA has made it as clear as one can be. We are at 0.1% for a very very very long time. 2024 and honestly likely beyond that.They are not happy about the currency. Not worried about bubbles .... inflation or anything else. As Lowe pointed out the ASX is below where it was, house prices are merely back to 2 year ago levels. Wages growth ... virtually impossible right now to see with a lot dislocated and more happening as Job keeper evaporates .... job seeker already cut and likely even more in coming months not say to the $40- a day level but say $50-. For me, yield and safety .... boring but ... as in say 2011 same thing, different times but being paid massively above the cash rate to hold an asset over time is the only course. Sure USA so full of hot air may pop ... or flop a bit. Some techs at insane levels If I close my eyes and take the 16 cents plus franking credits .... so 20 cents effective verses 0.1% ... Time will tell. Enjoy. Will think about TLS if and when its say 15% higher and by then possibly Optus has stopped discounting its third rate mobile service outside the CBD and TLS did actually sneakily raise its plans by $5 a month of late not yet reflected in the numbers. Sounds small buts its one hell of a whack given the low inflation environment outside the idiots buying bitcoin or Game stop. Cheers PS ... I note many analysts were calling a 13 cent dividend ... TLS came out and actually said 8 cents now and they believe 16 cents for 2021, market of course ... did not a lot considering this. Made the valuations in the $3.70 range more likely.
  5. Oh the day before picture Its nuts ... no masks other than bar staff. Immunity via stupidty
  6. Hi Mags, Unknown .... all of it.Speculation on my part. I do of course hope for the best, but Biden is inheriting a mess. That he says 100 million injections in 100 days is a wish I hope they achieve. That said, two injections needed per person for the vaccine, a mere 50 million say by end of April full vaccinated. I do hope the effort doubles .... by then and 200 million shots end of July added to this and another 100 million added. So they will be close. I wish ... I had some confidence in this since the stupidity displayed of late in the USA has no bounds. Photo I have attached is Hogs Breath in Florida as of 16th January 2021. It was more crowded the night before .... and the night after. Florida is reporting basically all the infections Australia had EVERY 2 days. Florida openly had deliberately under reported both infections and deaths. Look at all those masks !! NONE .... or around chin Photo taken from live web camera ....https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/florida.html What Florida is ... is about average for the USA .... Tennessee and Nashville vi same camera on a Saturday night NOW is insane. It's about 150% worse than Florida. No masks, no social distancing other than, well ... Neo liberal stupidity. I can make one prediction sadly for 2021 and the govt preferred site that gates funds, and its 567,000 Covid Deaths by April 1st 2021 for the USA will sadly pass 800,000 during 2021 and unlikely not to hit 1 million in 2021. Biden may of course mandate compulsory mask wearing, but its likely to be ignored as you can see in the picture. Vaccine wise, I suspect its only going to give about 8 months immunity, this from a lot of scientific papers. The vaccine if you have it likely will require booster shots, one ... maybe 2 every year. USA is so fractured right now this link to the recent riots is worth your time watching. No commentary, just a reporter following with camera and this is just the tip of the iceberg in the USA. Yep its 12 minutes long. I suspect with cause that any vaccination effort is tied up with acceptance by the greater community in any society. USA sadly has so many factions of people one can see from the video that ... at best one can dream the vaccine is taken up by 80%, likely 50% and I hope and pray they sort out the issues which has seen a mere 13 million shots in the first Month. Only 1.97 million so far having got the two shots .... included in that 13 million total. To get to say 200 million people for 2 shots at even 50 million shots a month .... so 400 million will take time. Then repeat over and over until the virus is gone which seems sadly again unlikely with what one must expect an uptake of say 60% in the USA leaving the virus to fester and fester as it does. Best wishes to all for 2021. Sobering that its unlikely for the USA to stop till 800,000 dead likely a million. Absurd as it sounds, infected went from 200,000 a week in the USA to 1.8 million and its NOT going down. Look at the picture and wonder if they are out of their scones. Mark
  7. Hi Mags, Unknown .... all of it.Speculation on my part. I do of course hope for the best, but Biden is inheriting a mess. That he says 100 million injections in 100 days is a wish I hope they achieve. That said, two injections needed per person for the vaccine, a mere 50 million say by end of April full vaccinated. I do hope the effort doubles .... by then and 200 million shots end of July added to this and another 100 million added. So they will be close. I wish ... I had some confidence in this since the stupidity displayed of late in the USA has no bounds. Photo I have attached is Hogs Breath in Florida as of 16th January 2021. It was more crowded the night before .... and the night after. Florida is reporting basically all the infections Australia had EVERY 2 days. Florida openly had deliberately under reported both infections and deaths. Look at all those masks !! NONE ... or around chin Photo taken from live web camera .... https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/florida.html What Florida is ... is about average for the USA .... Tennessee and Nashville via same camera on a Saturday night NOW is insane. It's about 150% worse than Florida. No masks, no social distancing other than, well ... Neo liberal stupidity. I can make one prediction sadly for 2021 and the govt preferred site that gates funds, and its 567,000 Covid Deaths by April 1st 2021 for the USA will sadly pass 800,000 during 2021 and unlikely not to hit 1 million in 2021. Biden may of course mandate compulsory mask wearing, but its likely to be ignored as you can see in the picture. Vaccine wise, I suspect its only going to give about 8 months immunity, this from a lot of scientific papers. The vaccine if you have it likely will require booster shots, one ... maybe 2 every year. USA is so fractured right now this link to the recent riots is worth your time watching. No commentary, just a reporter following with camera and this is just the tip of the iceberg in the USA. Yep its 12 minutes long. I suspect with cause that any vaccination effort is tied up with acceptance by the greater community in any society. USA sadly has so many factions of people one can see from the video that ... at best one can dream the vaccine is taken up by 80%, likely 50% and I hope and pray they sort out the issues which has seen a mere 13 million shots in the first Month. Only 1.97 million so far having got the two shots .... included in that 13 million total. To get to say 200 million people for 2 shots at even 50 million shots a month .... so 400 million will take time. Then repeat over and over until the virus is gone which seems sadly again unlikely with what one must expect an uptake of say 60% in the USA leaving the virus to fester and fester as it does. Best wishes to all for 2021. Sobering that its unlikely for the USA to stop till 800,000 dead likely a million. Absurd as it sounds, infected went from 200,000 a week in the USA to 1.8 million and its NOT going down. Look at the picture and wonder if they are out of their scones. Mark
  8. kahuna1

    Trump

    I think Trump moves into Australia post Jan 20th 2021 .... That buffoon we have now seems to hang on his every word. Our first president and his wife ? Our new first lady ?
  9. kahuna1

    Trump

    Scott seems to be missing his medal ? Where is his medal ?HE should be wearing Trumps medal to show his loyalty.
  10. Yep, Been around a long time and right now, the sector rotation in Australia is insane. Things go from a prudent value, to what is an I wish value in weeks.That of course is companies that make money. Not a fan of the banks up here. Market seems to think that they go back to the old dividends and possibly buybacks in 2022. Not so sure this is correct.Flip-side is say Utilities whilst boring, they get smashed in favor of Banks and in favor of techs and so on. Darling used to be the WOW and COL which I admit went way beyond my wildest dreams. I liked COL on the split below $12- at $16- it was getting expensive and now at $19= sort of insane. Certainly some ... my love hate affair with FMG hating it pre GFC at $10- loving it at $2- and even sub $4- not so long ago, ts been a perfect ride for them. Still cant work out if an at best 80% of say old banks dividends since they need to retain MORE for capital and growth and were paying out far too much in the past if say $1.50 dividend on a bank .... say at 6% with some risk in there .... so I suppose a $25- handle for the likes of ANZ and NAB is possible all be it fully priced. Not sure we have finished with COVID longer term and the new strains likely to me to wreaking some serious havoc into 2021. Liked the J+J vaccine news all be it not much detail and more on the Oxford vaccine which protected at 100% against severe COVID in the latest release of studies and .... much like Moderna and Pfizer CLAIMS .... a vaccine with a lot less side effect and old and tried and tested vector seems good to me. That both USA companies used pseudo science to come up with their over 90% numbers is pure political BS and the norm for the world in 2020/21. Should be interesting times ahead and Biden if he actually taxes USA companies and removes the tax cuts for the rich .... and makes social security tax go to all income instead of stopping at $140k, well there will be squeals that should be heard even here. Nothing to do with our market of course, the absurdity and obscenity the USA tax system has become has taken decades to produce. Biden I think said he proposes to raise the USA minimum wage to $15- ..... which is a good thing overall. Such a mess USA is in 2021 I will only believe it when its passed and law, which sadly I suspect is unlikely given the state of their kleptocracy. Only a few more sleeps and no more watching the news with dread every morning for the latest idiotic action. Safely can totally ignore the USA for the next 20 years as it goes much the way of the UK post 1918 into the irrelevant basket. Have fun
  11. Yep ... Personally waiting for the Oxford vaccine. I note the EU just changed yet again its use of Remdesivir the Gillead drug. Veklury is what its called now. An aside, Gillead announced overnight its results. USA about half of Covid patients get given this ... stuff. When you have 2.75 million infected a week and say 100,000 cycling in and out of hospital every few weeks with 135k in there, I suppose Gilleads results were no surprise. Increased sales. A drug which has a massive question mark over it and EU ... well its rules for any use of it is onerous ... costs $115 USD per dose to make sells for $2,500 or so and well all research and studies paid for by govt is what it is. Gilead is the one which sells the Prep AIDS drug in the USA for $12,000 a months which sells here for $100- ... again it is what it is. Patent has elapsed on it in every country except the USA. I note 2.75 million infected in the USA last 7 days and 23,000 deaths. Not much if any media coverage. Worst of the worst already mentioned Tennessee in the USA with 6.9 million population is about to hit 10% infected and still ... bars open ... and debating over masks. Meanwhile market loves everything other than companies that makes money. Well known Q an Non person who was the riches man for a day .... Elon Musk saw his shares fall ... they were only priced at 95 times 2021-22 sales.Its reasonable ? Now they are merely priced at 89 times expected sales. Not profit, SALES. Been there before and time and time again over the years. Stay safe
  12. CDC ... study ... I note a few things.There were over 20 extreme reactions inside the first 10 days in the USA .... extreme as in life threatening.Whilst not an anti vax person at all, CDC and USA FDA both have failed in massive dangerous fashion of late. FDA approved the malaria drug only to have it pulled for emergency use. Approved Gilliad Remdesivir to treat the virus and even gave it full approval. EU on the other hand banned the very same drug. Reality is that few doctors use this drug now ... either USA or EU .... it had and has issues with kidneys and livers and WHO study with 17,000 people found it had NO effect .... none zero and so too 2 other studies the FDA and CDC ignored. Anyhow CDC study ... which is ... https://news.yahoo.com/1-100-000-had-severe-193625427.html Total BS ... even the wording is deliberate deceptive. In a clinical trail and vaccine trial a need to have an eppy shot ... a life threatening reaction called and EXTREME reaction. Not a severe one ... which is much milder and not needing a visit to the hospital. Thankfully due to the vaccine needing special treatment and now shots are given under doctors supervision to see if their is an allergic reaction. the full data for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, clinical trials, had ZERO .... no extreme reactions. NONE.. .... and they had 20 in the first 150k ? Seriously !! Do you think it needs MORE testing ? Of course the need is immediate and well, corners cut .... along with the pile of money for both of them. This to one side ... another factual article and well here it is ... https://bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-091...1009-6/fulltext Also read the full studies of both vaccines and was personally appalled. CDC I suppose saying its 10 times more reactions than a the flu shot sounds ok. Sadly they used the reactions seen the first week of vaccinations so about 150,000- .... then used the total people given a shot as of week 4 .... so over 2 million which is ... what it is. Understating the issue and reactions by a factor of 10 .... in plain sight !! I suppose reactions are yes rare, even despite this clear and obvious tapering with data and pseudo science by the USA again. Sadly some of the reactions seen are longer lasting such as bells paulsey which in some had not resolved by the end of the clinical trials along with immediate rheumatoid arthritis. I did and do note the whitewash by even normally decent scientific magazines. One article in Stat magazine actually suggested that the reactions were coincidental. Yes of course over a vast population people will have every sort of normal reaction over time however .... a person given the vaccine immediate developing a rash, difficulty breathing or blowing up like a puffer fish is what they were trying to actually dismiss. Total crap .... of course a fine line between anti vaccine nutjobs and getting people vaccinated. For myself will await a more tradition vaccine, not the RNA ones ... not ones with PEG or other fillers. Oxford one looks good as do 2 others likely approved in coming months. Need for this in Australia given actual contact tracing, compliance on the main with masks and ... lack of stupidity being tolerated ... seems no immediate rush. UK ... USA and a lot of others in serious trouble. The need outweighs the risks and caution I have raised along with others. If say 50 people actually died via the vaccine the USA right now at 370k deaths, likely real number 500 k ... that to one side, the official estimate now for 1st April 2021 which I have whinged about for many months as being a joke and too low, is NOW .... closer to my own at 567,000- dead. That's another 200,000 deaths in 10 weeks. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-state...s&tab=trend So cost or risks even as I have raised an at worst number .... is tiny compared to benefits. Of course, USA as just displayed has virtually zero chance of vaccination being taken up willingly by 80% or more people. Sadly this will be with us for some time the covid19 until either its captured and squashed, via lock-downs or masks and or vaccines being taken up so transmission is well under 1. Time will tell.
  13. CDC ... study ... I note a few things.There were over 20 extreme reactions inside the first 10 days in the USA .... extreme as in life threatening.Whilst not an anti vax person at all, CDC and USA FDA both have failed in massive dangerous fashion of late. FDA approved the malaria drug only to have it pulled for emergency use. Approved Gilliad Remdesivir to treat the virus and even gave it full approval. EU on the other hand banned the very same drug. Reality is that few doctors use this drug now ... either USA or EU .... it had and has issues with kidneys and livers and WHO study with 17,000 people found it had NO effect .... none zero and so too 2 other studies the FDA and CDC ignored. Anyhow CDC study ... which is ... https://news.yahoo.com/1-100-000-had-severe-193625427.html Total BS ... even the wording is deliberate deceptive. In a clinical trail and vaccine trial a need to have an eppy shot ... a life threatening reaction called and EXTREME reaction. Not a severe one ... which is much milder and not needing a visit to the hospital. Thankfully due to the vaccine needing special treatment and now shots are given under doctors supervision to see if their is an allergic reaction. the full data for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, clinical trials, had ZERO .... no extreme reactions. NONE.. .... and they had 20 in the first 150k ? Seriously !! Do you think it needs MORE testing ? Of course the need is immediate and well, corners cut .... along with the pile of money for both of them. This to one side ... another factual article and well here it is ... https://bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-091...1009-6/fulltext Also read the full studies of both vaccines and was personally appalled. CDC I suppose saying its 10 times more reactions than a the flu shot sounds ok. Sadly they used the reactions seen the first week of vaccinations so about 150,000- .... then used the total people given a shot as of week 4 .... so over 2 million which is ... what it is. Understating the issue and reactions by a factor of 10 .... in plain sight !! I suppose reactions are yes rare, even despite this clear and obvious tapering with data and pseudo science by the USA again. Sadly some of the reactions seen are longer lasting such as bells paulsey which in some had not resolved by the end of the clinical trials along with immediate rheumatoid arthritis. I did and do note the whitewash by even normally decent scientific magazines. One article in Stat magazine actually suggested that the reactions were coincidental. Yes of course over a vast population people will have every sort of normal reaction over time however .... a person given the vaccine immediate developing a rash, difficulty breathing or blowing up like a puffer fish is what they were trying to actually dismiss. Total crap .... of course a fine line between anti vaccine nutjobs and getting people vaccinated. For myself will await a more tradition vaccine, not the RNA ones ... not ones with PEG or other fillers. Oxford one looks good as do 2 others likely approved in coming months. Need for this in Australia given actual contact tracing, compliance on the main with masks and ... lack of stupidity being tolerated ... seems no immediate rush. UK ... USA and a lot of others in serious trouble. The need outweighs the risks and caution I have raised along with others. If say 50 people actually died via the vaccine the USA right now at 370k deaths, likely real number 500 k ... that to one side, the official estimate now for 1st April 2021 which I have whinged about for many months as being a joke and too low, is NOW .... closer to my own at 567,000- dead. That's another 200,000 deaths in 10 weeks. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-state...s&tab=trend So cost or risks even as I have raised an at worst number .... is tiny compared to benefits. Of course, USA as just displayed has virtually zero chance of vaccination being taken up willingly by 80% or more people. Sadly this will be with us for some time the covid19 until either its captured and squashed, via lock-downs or masks and or vaccines being taken up so transmission is well under 1. Time will tell.
  14. Liked the post on My shares for TLS ... Agree with the view over time TLS will inch up earnings per MB of download and Optos becomes less idiotic trying for market share. Whilst loving it well below $3- and buying last time a few things have changed. Low I think was 266 ... I did not get set there but 268 ... 270 and so on. With the idiotic bounce whilst over time TLS will capitalize its towers, the almost overnight jump from sub 270 tto 320 ish was too good to ignore and reduced. As we go lower, adding, set so far 304 302 and so on downwards, if the market bunnies decide to take it there. Basically replacing the reductions at 318 as it goes down. A few things for me changed and so too valuation longer term.Dividend outlook for me firmer than previous of a maybe 13 cent, likely 14 cent .... I am up 1 cent ... for 2021 and better 2022 and beyond. Second is the outlook for rates here is very clear. We are at 0.1% for a LONG LONG TIME. RBA has stated this time and again and until wage pressure and inflation well into the 2-3 % band likely over 3% will they take action.Secondly adding to this is the power of the AUD at 74 cents and ignoring all else the RBA is unlikely to raise rates for this reason alone with the implication of a rising AUD not helping anything. As such the same thing for me is 15 cents likely 16 cent full franked dividend at levels below $3- so 5% yield with effective at 6.5% franking credits wise and well ... choosing this 6.5% or 0.1% is not something thats hard to work out. TLS compared to a maybe on say banks their dividends return maybe ,... maybe to say 70% of 2019 levels, likely 60% due to massive dilution via capital raises and on top of this hybrids with franked payments ... Prefer the less risky, all be it boring path. At some stage as COVID and vaccine takes hold in 2021, I am somewhat skeptical of the longer lasting effect of the vaccine at say 8 months ... I suspect and less than stellar take-up via overseas and USA playing out for some time. None f this much of a factor potentially with TLS and its business and again, for me attractive as time goes on. I ask myself, if in 18 months with a splotchy world for COVID 19, still around ... but yields and returns at bugger all will the market actually wake up and revalue things that are making and paying incomes and returns and we go up closer to the $3.70-$4 region where I think fair value is ? Only time will tell on all counts. How long the vaccine is effective ? Any longer term side effects from these new type RNA things / How well taken up it is in the USA with insanity ruling the roost ? TLS ... suspect this time around the low is not 266 but substantially higher say 286 ... and will act either way accordingly. Lots of sector rotation by big funds right now and most of it ... I am finding at best idiotic. The key questions globally regarding covid 19 still unanswered despite the vaccine. Good luck
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