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PeterH

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Everything posted by PeterH

  1. Sorry for the typo. Sensis should have read sepsis. Makes all the difference. Check out the progress on the sepsis test. When I posted yesterday I did not know about the CR announced this a.m., nor of the most recent developments on the battery front. I will be taking up all of my entitlements as I can't see a better prospect on the market ATM even though there are some good ones. If collaborator 8 is who I hope it is we are made on three fronts; Covic, sepsis and batteries.
  2. I don't think I have seen a great ooprtunity so summarily and wrongly dismissed. IMHO it has probably the greatest chance of any ASX stock of becoming a multibagger in the short term - and staying up there long enough to let us holders relax and review. How about doing a little research on ADO's battery technology and it's sensis test for starters. And have you checked out its customers and connections?And hey, what about the webinar next Wednesday morning. That alone will be good for another kick along. I am still learning though. Only been in the market since 1959.
  3. PeterH

    Gold

    I don't know if you were in the market in the nineteen seventies Nipper, but I was. There is no way you can talk of then and now in the same breath - for many reasons. I will mention only one: The leading governments of the world were not destroying their fiat currencies back then. That's really all you have to know. These currencies are destined to become worthless within a very limited timeframe, simply because you cannot produce unlimited quantities of anything without making it completely worthless (Economics 101). Governments have only two choices, re-neg on their debts or let the hyperinflation roll. I am betting on the latter. Gold is the only thing the world will be able to rush to to preserve its nesteggs.
  4. PeterH

    WBA

    P.S. I should mention that I predicted this here in a post February this year: "PSP Investments is picking off all our best investment opportunities while we dumb Australians just sleep on. I am not going to go into detail as I do not want to cruel my own pitch. Suffice it to say, they will make a bid for WBA too, but this time they may not be aware who they are up against. If Chris caves in to any offer we can rest assured that he will have extracted the best price."
  5. PeterH

    WBA

    Yes, OK, I will do alright out of this, but it pains me that Australia's best listed assets are one after another being opportunistically taken over by the much more savvy Canadian pension funds. I am not blaming the directors in recommending the T/O. It's a no-brainer, but!!! C'mon Australia, wake up to what you've got.
  6. PeterH

    Gold

    FWIW Nipper the way I see it is that we are facing a collapse of confidence in fiat currencies, what with Trump, the threat of competitive currency devaluation and the smartest guys in the room preparing us for massive bank collapses in Europe, and more. There is equal risk in holding cash or bonds which are really only a less accessible form of fiat currency. Accordingly my portfolio is now heavily laden with big gold producers with big reserves. No point in buying gold as such. The cheapest way to invest in gold is while it is still in the ground. If you buy gold itself then all you have is the same amount of gold when it hits the fan. On the other hand, if you own reserves then the amount of gold you own effectively increases when the POG rises, but more than proportionately so, because reserves of lower grades become mineable. Most gold producers have large reserves of gold just below the economically mineable grade. Takes a little thinking to get around this one but it's worth the effort. There is another thing I might as well mention while I am at it, and you probably know this Nipper as you are a smart guy, but many don't. To invest in gold calls for an understanding of it which most financial journalists do not have. Whenever you start reading an article on gold which begins with a rundown on the demand and supply of gold you should read no further. This is because the laws of supply and demand do not apply to gold and the journo clearly does not know this. There are several reasons why this is so, but I will just mention the most significant one. It is that effectively all the gold which has ever been mined is still in existence and is owned by people who value it. The laws of supply and demand in economic theory were conceived in the first instance to apply only to commodities which are consumed and then are no more, thus requiring constant new supply which behaves according to changes in demand. Since gold remains in existence and is effectively indestructible and always available for sale at a price then the supply side which the journos refer to (freshly extracted gold) is irrelevant. I will put this another way. The supply of any other commodity comprises only new and reclaimed production. The actual potential supply of gold to the market comprises all of the already mined gold in existence, which is available to the market at a price, plus current extraction which is infinitesimal and not even worth considering in the equation. Bear in mind that unlike most commodities, gold is hard to find and extract and supply cannot be ratcheted up in a hurry, if at all. Our gold journos don't seem to cotton on to this peculiarity of the supply side of the equation and the vital fact that the POG has nothing to do with 'production' but everything to do with the psychology of the current holders of gold, be they individuals, traders, central banks or whatever, together with, of course, the psychology of the potential buyers. In a nutshell, the POG is affected only by the emotions of humans and we are very soon to enter very emotional times. Sure this is a simplification but you have to start somewhere.
  7. PeterH

    WBA

    Thanks for that BS. This morning the Hansen-Young kiddie had herself interviewed on Radio National on the subject. Now that she is on the case we can be assured of a lot more misinformation. The position she has taken is, as you would expect, the outcome of her level of comprehension entangled with her abhorrence of the free enterprise system. I am not too concerned. This will all die a natural death - put to death by the disinterest and inability to understand the issues by the public at large.
  8. So did I Mull. A classic case of the tiniest blip on the background of eternity presenting a buying opportunity. And so pleasing to do it this way rather than take up the spp.
  9. Kyle Bass is nearly always the smartest guy in the room. Trouble is that he is an American, worse still, a Texan. And Americans just don't get China. They don't get Asia. They don't get anywhere in the world other than the USA. So while he has an extraordinarily incisive and quick mind, his output must be seen in the framework of his handicap. Bass can still be seen regularly on Real Vision and I would never fail to watch whenever he shows up, but you have to pay for it. He now also appears on Real Vision sometimes as an interviewer of other gurus and he is possibly at his best in this role. Another guy I would rate with Bass is Jim Grant who also shows up on Real Vision, although we haven't seen him recently. He has possibly a better world view than Bass.
  10. Yep Mullokintyre I admit I bought some myself after my last post when I saw more buyers coming into the market. It remains a quality asset with a long mine life by Oz standards. And taking a wider view of the future it is worth noting that it has a larger holding in CYL than does Gina. FWIW I rate CYL as the most promising Oz goldy still at the prospecting stage.
  11. Was this a buying opportunity was my first thought Nipper, on the grounds that against a longer term background this would turn out to be but a blip. After all, the outcome of the decisions announced were hardly company changing. So I studied the board and the course of sales and saw an incredible number of others who thought it was buying opportunity too but they had no meaningful effect on the share price. I came to the conclusion that the rebuild of confidence was going to be a long drawn out affair. No hurry here.
  12. PeterH

    WBA

    Well spotted Nipper. PSP Investments is picking off all our best investment opportunities while we dumb Australians just sleep on. I am not going to go into detail as I do not want to cruel my own pitch. Suffice it to say, they will make a bid for WBA too, but this time they may not be aware who they are up against. If Chris caves in to any offer we can rest assured that he will have extracted the best price. You can bet that PSP also has QUB on its shopping list. Irreplaceable assets are what PSP are after and there are fewer and fewer of them left for us.
  13. Orchard and Nipper. I am not a day trader but I can read a board and I can read a chart. In nearly 60 years in the market I have never seen such a set of messages sent by the trading frenzy since Poseidon. Yes I bought into that one too. In the first few days the frenzy was such that any day trader worth his salt could not have lost. Big call I know, but this was a unique situation, so I had to open the punting purse and put my foot in. My average ingoing was 54 cents. Now I don't care a damn. If it goes up I'm laughing. If it goes down I buy more - judiciously, of course. One thing I can almost guarantee - it will go past $1. So I am unlikely to sell and intend at this stage to stay in for the long haul. I like the cut of the boy's jib too. And we all know that backing a company's founder gives you one of the best head starts available. Mind you, I remember saying that about Elon Musk as well but now I wouldn't back him with bad money. Oh, by the way, I have learned a couple of things from experience. My biggest mistakes have resulted from selling too early. I bought Poseidon for 67 cents and sold for $2.40, very pleased with myself, for a short while. My mate who bought at the same time as me waited until they hit $200 before he sold. And there was no CGT in those days. This could be a fun ride, just could be.
  14. PeterH

    WBA

    There is no way we mere shareholders can appraise the merits of this deal Nipper. We just don't have the data and the detail of the strategy. Thankfully we don't have to. If Chris thinks it's in his interests then it's in ours. No doubt he has another killer deal up his sleeve to put the proceeds to good use. I see the cotton price is coming off a tad too. I know that is only a season to season thing, but the timing tends to assuage any regrets about the sale.
  15. PeterH

    WBA

    I very much doubt we will see any M & A activity Nipper. There is no one who could prize this gem from the hands of its major shareholders, especially as they have much bigger as yet unfulfilled plans for the company. One of those plans could be a privatisation, of course, but I suspect that is unlikely at this stage as the cake is not yet big enough. If I am forced to eat my words it will be because the water rights turn out to have a much greater value than even I suspect they do. After all, major shareholders are trading water rights separately and in addition to this indirect interest. Water rights are the new real estate.
  16. Last night (Tues 22/5) at 9.30 on ABC2 there was a BBC doco called "Secrets of Silicon Valley: The Disruptors". This was the first part of two. A bit over half way through, to the best of my guesswork, they gave Enlitic a bit of coverage andinterviewed Jeremy. The doco was made in 2017. I dont' know what month. I am sure it is available on ABC on demand and worth a look.
  17. I would like to add to others' comments my take on Arty as a good bloke and worthwhile contributor. I am sorry to learn that we will not benefit from his input again.
  18. Yes Balance. I figured that if WPL is worth holding at all then a few more won't hurt. It does appear that gas has a future even if petrol does not. The modest but franked divi beats leaving the money in the bank anyway.
  19. Thanks Nipper. You are right in saying, "...don't invest in things you don't understand!?" In this case I suspect there are two things to understand, the technology of the service itself and, probably more important, the competition. I had better stick to my knitting.
  20. Thanks Nipper. I admire your enthusiasm here and on other threads. Trouble is that some of us don't know what the company does and what it is exactly that it sells. I will continue my search along the jargon infested road to enlightenment but in the meantime can you point us at some good source(s) of background explanatory info.
  21. Arty and Alonzo, it all depends on your investment horizon, of course, but I speak as quite a long term holder and have ridden this thing down then up again. As I see it SIP is just hitting its straps so I don't see any urgency to get out. Anyway, with the rumour around that Boots is looking for a way into the Australian market I see SIP as a possible T/O target. Never underestimate the value of a well established distribution set-up. That lesson was learned when the multinationals bought out every Australian confectionery manufacturer as much, or more, for their wholesale grip as their brands.
  22. I felt a bit lonely when I topped up a couple of times when it dropped to 50 cents but now I am starting to thaw out. It can be incredibly difficult to swim against the market and at times like that I just have to close my eyes and think of J. P. Getty. But now they tell us that the Rivers' stock is cleared there are no more big obstacles in the way. Another fear was whether the change in the targetted market would work - Rivers shifting its sights from the youth market to the middle market - but it seems to be working out OK. Those who have not shopped in the U.S. may not appreciate what a presence in Nordstrom and Macy's represents. These could not have been easy to arrange. I am curious, however, as to how big a presence it is. I trust that it is more than token. I am guessing that the share price will present more buying opportunities between reporting seasons.
  23. What did the Cotton On people have to say Alonzo? BTW, I am sticking with SFH. If Rivers is repairable then SFH is right for averaging down and I can't see how Rivers is not repairable. If it were not repairable then it is easily cut loose - same result, with the rest of the chain doing well.
  24. Dispela bisnis imi nogut tru. Igat tumas stilman long dispela hap, Niugini. Bainbai WPL lusim planti kina tumas.
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