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Everything posted by spot

  1. spot


    when does a recession become a depression? .. when there's a solvency problem with the banking system. and aren't the bulk of the banks in the U.S. and Europe technically insolvent? so what kind of depression? .. well judging from the massive wealth destruction .. a worldwide deflationary depression and in such a deflation i would expect gold to increase wrt currency. it is a fact that the price of Homestake gold increased seven times in the 1930's. with the current banking problems in Eastern and Western Europe this week, the deflationary trend seems to be accelerating. where is the best place to have one's precious capital? .. i think RMB, gold and good companies selling at bargain basement prices. the accelerating influx of money into gold EFTs is a major driver for the price of gold because they have to buy the physical. why should that influx of money suddenly stop now? i expect the middle class in so many countries is going to be decimated. so what's the smartest thing to do? .. i think to hedge one's total wealth against gold Some facts … # The open interest in gold contracts on Comex is 60% of what it was one year ago at the ATH. # The contango spread of the contract months for the rest of 2009 looks to have lessened. It's obvious .. gold will go to new ATHs.
  2. it's about time that the australian dog got off its back and stopped showing the world its balls. let's be difficult like the french and say 'non' and let's be intransigent like the russians and say 'nyet' to chinese govt. ownership of australian mining assets. let's show a bit off backbone and pride. and you don't have to explain yourself to foreigners. no means no.. finish. and who cares if the banks and shareholders take a hit. the mines will stay australian and when metal prices are higher, capital will meet opportunity and dig the stuff out. besides, you mob couldn't dig a hole within time and under budget to save your socks.
  3. if you group the quarters MJJ ASO NDJ etc, you will notice that this quarter is above the last quarter. this is late confirmation that the bear market for the SSEC has finished and that a new bull market is more than three months old. the october low visited close to the high of 1993 .. fifteen years ago! when you consider the inflation of the intervening years, in real terms, the recent low prices are incredible bargains. http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=h...hp?ticker=^SSEC
  4. QUOTE (cwjohn @ Wednesday 21/01/09 07:15am) so where's the bottom of the banks? less than book patience grasshopper.
  5. In reply to: spot on Tuesday 20/01/09 03:41pm correction. i got the CDS exposure figure wrong. 'The latest Reserve Bank Bulletin reveals that the total off-balance sheet business of our banks has gone from $13.79 trillion at the end of June 2008 to $14.21 trillion at the end of Sept 2008. This is an increase of $420 billion. This represents a rate increase of 3 per cent for the quarter, or, an annualised rate of 12 per cent. In the same time the net equity of banks remained unchanged at $131 billion, even though both assets and liabilities increased by $200 billion each.' http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...412-643,00.html
  6. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...412-643,00.html the collapse of its main competitor is good news. TRS made a decision last year to leverage their balance sheet some more by taking on more debt and paying out 75% of NPAT as dividends. this is the wrong thing to do when banks are getting bloody minded. they need to adapt to changing credit conditions and reverse this decision and retain a greater percentage of profit to fund expansion. the safety of an unleveraged balance sheet is paramount in this banking climate. the company has a high ROE and they should be retaining profit and compounding it at a high rate of return. if they find they have too much cash, then a buy-back while the share price is relatively low is the best way forward.
  7. QUOTE (cwjohn @ Tuesday 20/01/09 06:46am) 'Most derivative exposure now highlighted and in a relative sense this was minimal' this is simply not true. the banks have massive exposure to the credit default swap market and their exposure is hidden off balance sheet. there is no transparancy and no way any rational holder of bank shares could calculate capital risk. hence i think people should use a higher required rate of return than is usual when assessing bank shares. there needs to be regulation to force banks to mark-to-market any off balance sheet assets and liabilities and move them onto their balance sheets. if the CDS market blows up, what are the odds of australia going the way of iceland? (isn't the nominal value of aussie bank exposure to the CDS market in excess of 100 trio AUD?)
  8. spot


    QUOTE (spot @ Tuesday 06/01/09 11:45am) SSEC up 8.3% in January. every other main stock index having a losing month. now 26% of S/F. when a TD comes due i might make it 50% if it continues to prove itself. outrageous isn't it? S/F is 59% cash and currently up 3% this FY ... Jesus wept.
  9. QUOTE (cwjohn @ Wednesday 14/01/09 05:58pm) CW One can hedge individual shares using cfds or options. I use neither. wrt market risk ... One can sell SPI futures contracts. It is not a contract I like because it can be easily manipulated and I don’t trade it. Our XJO index and the SP500 futures contract are highly positively correlated. I am only interested in being approximately right so I can cover about $323k of Australian shares for each contract I sell. It’s a contract I am comfortable with, and a cheap way of hedging.
  10. G’day guys, To get some understanding of these markets, let’s look at some facts and see what they portend. • US banks borrow at low rates from the govt and buy 30 year bonds which pay higher rates. This is in effect a carry trade. • China has shown little inclination to buy less treasuries . Last year they spent 170 bio. Over the last six months, they have made a killing. • US investors are more concerned with ‘return of capital’ than with ‘return on capital’ and hence buy treasuries. So there is an increase in USD money supply but it is not getting out into the community because the banks have tightened their lending standards and are rationing credit. In the general community, demand for USD is greater than their supply as companies and individuals try to repair their balance sheets. This explains the strength of the USD. In the US 1929-32 bear market there was a second banking collapse which caused a second wave of liquidation. That hasn’t happened in this bear market. But what happens if the credit default swap market ‘blows up’ causing waves of defaults and asset liquidation. This market has a nominal value of greater than 500 trio and is written in USD. Imagine the need for dollars then .. the USD would go through the roof. If the US is to suffer comparable deflation to Japan, expect losses of all asset classes to be in the order of 45 trio, the equivalent of three years GDP. Losses are nowhere near there yet. Our recent bull market was about the strongest in the western world. Well going forward for four years, I would expect it to be one of the weakest western stock markets. Certainly, since the world’s stock markets are in bear markets, I would not expect our market to lead world markets out of their slump. I see no evidence our market has made final bottom, so I think it’s best to have in place the facility to hedge one’s position …just in case blood ever rushes and finds its way to the head so to speak. cheers, spot
  11. In reply to: jfgao on Wednesday 14/01/09 11:28am May I suggest you write clear understandable English. That way, to use the vernacular, I might have a chance to know WTF you’re on about. I would prefer to hold US dollars than Australian dollars. The Australian current account deficit is funded by the banks. How long do you think that can continue before we have a financial crisis?
  12. spot


    In reply to: omega 3 on Tuesday 30/12/08 03:39pm Getting asset class allocation right is the most important thing. I read the odd post of someone selling all their shares and going to cash and feeling good about it. My question is .. why didn’t he/she put all the money in a yen account (HSBC has currency accounts) and be up 35% for the half-year? Two things to keep in mind .. - invest where the future is - invest as if you can’t change your asset allocation for five years. Premise …. it is safer to invest in China than Australia why? .. higher foreign reserves, hence less country risk RMB will appreciate more than AUD China is a crediter nation which has the capital to keep interest rates down In September, the SSEC had a PE of 13.7 I think buying Chinese shares today is a bit like buying US shares in 1932 or Japanese shares in 1950.
  13. i don't think it's a liquidity problem ... i think it's a solvency problem. if they're not insolvent, let them prove it by paying back a debt which has become due. it is wishful thinking to expect metal prices to rise to get them out of this mess. if they haven't got a positive operating cash flow at the moment, then i think they're stuffed.
  14. the bad news ann. was on 25 nov. some questions needing answers ...... on what date does/did hegarty's directorship cease? (the 25nov ann. doesn't spell it out.) why didn't the company ask to delist on 25 nov? .... why wait two extra days? did hegarty sell the remainder of his shares on 26-27 november?
  15. spot


  16. spot


    In reply to: mptrader on Monday 23/07/07 02:01pm the ann. of 15 June gives a book value of 211 per share. with the way it is generating cash, it's gotta be worth more than book value. happily paid 218 today.
  17. QUOTE (early birds @ Saturday 21/07/07 10:49pm) 1. select the account you are going to trade from. 2. mark it to market so you know the sum of money you're starting with. the percentages will be worked off this total balance. 3.the comp starts when the kiwi markets open tomorrow and finishes on the 18th august after the US markets close. 4. trade whatever you fancy eg stocks, cfds, futures , options, forex. Dan. just add 1% to your percentages for each trading day you're unavailable to trade. on the final weekend, i'll ask those willing, to PM me their results which i will collate and post. and we'll see what we can learn from the experience. we are the preditors ... so let's not give the market odds. wait for the setups before pulling the trigger. good hunting, spot.
  18. howdy guys and gals stocks are a bore at the moment. bit like being flogged with a wet lettuce leaf. so i propose a challenge ... starting monday and lasting four weeks ... to see who can make the biggest percentage trading whatever. we'll all lift our game if we rise to the challenge. no need to call trades. we'll all be on our honour. should be a lot of fun. come monday morning it'll be time to rip their faces off. Grrrr!! spot.
  19. REO prices are still moving up (unlike the base metal prices). http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25 the graph on page 26 shows demand outstripping supply. http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/fi...INAL_REPORT.pdf LYC is really in a unique position. all pretty compelling stuff.
  20. spot

    Dow Jones

    QUOTE (early birds @ Wednesday 06/06/07 04:59pm) hi EB. if you read my post of 3/4/05, you will see i picked the SSEC bottom, you cheeky little fellow. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif we are off on hols tomorrow so i'll leave it all alone for a bit. funny thing is i try and do what the the market says to do, and i find myself only 60% in stocks at the moment. that DOW top ain't the final bull market top. the little guy wasn't in the last run up, so they'll take it down so he can jump on board. it won't be over until the fat lady sings and the little guy has been skinned.
  21. spot

    Dow Jones

    for a while i did think the 13700s would call the final top of the Dow bull but it has come up too early in the picture compared to the price of T-bonds and crude oil so i don't think we're looking at a final top .. but a top to the present move since March nevertheless.i missed the short because i got kicked off to bed thursday night (after having spent some long nights setting up for a short on the bonds) and didn't wish to risk a hard time of it on friday night. there does seem to be a limit to how much nonsense i can get away with at home. not fair really seeing i bought her a new car the previous week,lol.
  22. QUOTE (wolverine @ Friday 25/05/07 10:51am) howdy wolv. made a bit of a guts of myself on this one. look at the daily on incredible charts and look at the OBV. it takes big money to make the OBV chart do that while price makes a lower bottom. if that's not bottomed, i'll go he! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif of course it might fall out of bed on monday. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif
  23. spot


    QUOTE (swuzzlebubble @ Wednesday 30/05/07 02:34pm) nice to know i'm not talking to myself. i put it up to set the 120 close yesterday. swuzz, can you post the web page with what stocks they hold.. i've not been able to find it. they haven't been able to beat the index yet. imagine the brain power involved in not being able to do that. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ohmy.gif . it's a real game of spot the neurone. i get the feeling that the're too light on bank stocks.
  24. In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 29/05/07 02:45pm if you want to bet against me .. play the SPI futures. promise i'll do my best to rub your nose in it. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif
  25. In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 29/05/07 02:16pm dear concerned, the SSEC is about 4+ times its '98 low. the russian RTS index in USD is up 45 times. http://www.rts.ru/?tid=690 if the chinese have got the balls of the russians, it's going a lot higher (?7000 this year). regards, spot.
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