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cobra

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Everything posted by cobra

  1. cobra

    CDU

    New native copper discovery -- wonder what this will do for share price "The Eastern Anomaly is one of the most prospective targets at the Rocklands Project."
  2. cobra

    AOE

    Barra -- thanks for your input
  3. cobra

    AOE

    The question i keep asking myself is if AGL sell their interest in MORANBAH what will that do to the price of T/A ????
  4. cobra

    AOE

    A major considaration would be what New Hope wants to do with its 17 % shareholding . What if the price is nor right does the deal fall over or does New Hope hang out for a better price
  5. cobra

    AOE

    Arrow share price currently been weak is there a posibility of a T/O
  6. cobra

    AOE

    There has been a heavy dumping of shares which is surprising ---Current $3.99 Strange
  7. Gerd ---Thanks You may be right about having a little punt
  8. There was a fair amount of buying by Directors in Nov 09 (3+mill shares) Note sure what that means
  9. Gerd---Article in TheBull also cuaght me eye especially Otto Energy Don't know much about the company I wonder if anyone out there can shed a little light on this Maybe good for a little trade
  10. Cooter ---When i saw the email i got excited thinking someone may have news about CIG Have been holding now for long time --- There is no movement at the station that i know of
  11. cobra

    AOE

    Bell Potter 05/01/10 -----Despite the good deal executed by AOE today,we retain our HOLD on a sector relative basis . We believe that STO,AWE and BPT offer greater valuation upside relative to share price given the risk profiles of each companys growth project.
  12. cobra

    AOE

    Could this be just a market correction ??? the fundemetals hav't changed
  13. cobra

    AOE

    Source Fnarena 28 Oct 2009 Credit Suisse Target price $5.50 Deutsche Bank Target price $3.70 JP Morgan Target Price $3.35 Bell Potter Hold Current Price $4.18 Interesting Any Views
  14. Go the Doggies I hope Tom Williams does not play
  15. cobra

    AOE

    Company: Arrow Energy ASX Code (AOE) Recommendation: Accumulate (Upgrade from Lighten) Risk Rating: High Major points: -Strong lift to gas reserves in quarterly report -Positive progress with first LNG facility in Gladstone at Fishermans Landing -Further major increases to gas reserves expected as result of large drilling program in FY10 -International business activities starting to gain traction -Indicative valuation of at least $5 per share "AOE has a deal with Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd to build a modular LNG facility using AOEs csg at Fishermans Landing in Gladstone that will have an initial capacity of about 0.5Mtpa with ready expansion to 1.5Mtpa. This project is likely to be the first LNG project developed in Australia (or anywhere for that matter) using csg and as they are well advanced with the permitting and related approvals issues"
  16. cobra

    AOE

    Up Up and away ---volumes seem low, I wonder if something is up . Any Views
  17. cobra

    AOE

    wolverine thanks for the post, most interesting. the question i keep asking myself is will shell have a go at santos rather than AOE. Only a thought
  18. cobra

    AOE

    That's what the Poms where saying :how's That??? -----sorry ,that time of day
  19. cobra

    AOE

    Anyone have a chart as to what they think AOE may do ---I wonder what $100miil in the bank does to the share price. I was looking for $4 but alas does not seem to want to go there
  20. cobra

    AOE

    ORD MINNETT VIEW IS Shell appears to be the most likely candidate to make a play for AOE given its existing interest in AOE acreage and its large scale Curtis Island LNG plans. While we cannot rule out this eventuality, we cannot necessarily see the case for Shell paying a large premium for AOE when it largely has what it wants via its existing agreement – access to gas for its proposed Curtis Is CSM project. An important consideration regarding AOE’s corporate is the location of its prime producing acreage. Shell has interests in at least 5 other Australian LNG proposals, notably a 25% interest in Gorgon.
  21. cobra

    AOE

    Tipton West is the most Promising of AOE's Surat Basin Assetes ORD MINNETT ---------------- Our base case DCF valuation of AOE is A$3.40/shr based on an assumed share count of 724m shares (post the issuance of 20.6m shares to BPT as part consideration for 40% Tipton West acquisition in May-09). Our component DCF valuation is displayed in the table below. Table 5: Ord Minnett AOE base case DCF valuation At Jan-09, LT US$90/bbl & 0.75US$/A$ A$m A$/shr PJ A$/PJ Tipton West (incl. all LNG supply) 916 1.26 1,159 0.79 Daandine/Stratheden 135 0.19 278 0.49 Kogan North 21 0.03 41 0.51 Moranbah 204 0.28 148 1.38 Braemar II PS 132 0.18 - - Fisherman's Landing LNG 20% (downstream) 426 0.59 - - LNG Ltd shareholding (at mkt px) 8 0.01 - - BPT Tipton West 40% purchase (194) (0.27) - - Additional Shell proceeds 424 0.59 - - Pure Energy proceeds 367 0.51 - - Arrow International 120 0.17 Net cash/(debt) 120 0.17 - - Group & Unallocated (212) (0.29) - - Group NPV 2,465 3.40 - - Source: Ord Minnett estimates. For modeling purposes we have assumed that all gas supply destined for LNG projects is notionally sourced from the Tipton West asset. On balance we believe that AOE's Surat Basin fields are more likely to be utilised for Gladstone LNG feedstock than the Moranbah project due to, 1) completion techniques being more refined in the Surat, and 2) neighbouring projects and pipelines providing opportunities for consolidation. Of AOE’s current Surat Basin projects we believe that Tipton West is the most probable candidate for LNG supply because AOE, 1) currently holds 82% equity interest in Tipton West (likely to reduce to 70% following Shell exercising its option re the BPT purchase), compared to 70% of Daandine/Stratheden and 35% of Kogan North, 2) has demonstrated its intent re Tipton West via purchase of BPT’s 40% interest, and 3) the Tipton West asset is of a considerably greater scale relative to AOE's other Surat Basin projects.
  22. Opposition To The Rio/BHP Deal Emerges June 09 2009 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR) http://www.aireview.com.au/images/dynamic/20090609/090609_RIO.gif According to a leading Chinese business magazine, the country's leading steel industry group has come out against the joint venture deal consolidating iron ore assets of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Australia. The article in China's Caijing Magazine is the first shot to be fired from opponents to the deal. The World Steel Association has also indicated its unease with the proposal, "Speaking on behalf of steel producers worldwide, Worldsteel Director General Ian Christmas said: "The announcement of this possible JV does nothing to allay the far greater competition issues that we were and are still concerned about. "We are again calling on competition authorities to seriously examine the obvious implications for future pricing regimes and the competitive environment for iron ore. "At present we cannot see how this JV could be in the public interest and thus it should not be allowed to proceed. "Even the largest steel company in the world today accounts for less than 15% of total world steel production. "We stand ready to provide access to our data to help competition authorities review the impact of this new JV proposal." Regulators around the world will have to give their approval, especially the European Commission, which was ready to kill the original BHP takeover of Rio back in November when BHP bailed out of the deal. The article in the Beijing-based Cajiing magazine said that China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) General Secretary Shan Shanghua had also denied media reports that Chinese steel makers would accept a 33% cut in iron ore term in contract talks with the big two Australian mills. That would match the recent settlements with Japanese, Taiwanese and South Korean mills. "After BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto establish the joint venture, large iron mines in Australia will belong to one company and this will lead to a monopoly operation," Shan was quoted as saying in the Caijing report, "China needs to import almost half of the iron ore it consumes, while the volumes from BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto account for more than half of imports." The World Steel Association also said the BHP-Rio Tinto deal would leave just two suppliers -- the Australians' joint venture and Brazil's Vale -- controlling 70% of the global iron ore trade. The association called on competition authorities to seriously examine the deal, announced as Rio Tinto scrapped its proposed $US19.5 billion tie-up with the Chinalco.
  23. Anyone have a view regarding SP. Would like to have another dip,question is when.
  24. Oz Minerals have been granted another debt extension by their bankers this morning after China’s Minmetals re-jigged their US$2.6bn bid for the zinc-copper miner to a US$1.21bn offer for most assets excluding the Prominent Hill mining operations, Martabe, some investment assets and investments in listed entities. OZL said the deal will allow them to retire all of their debt apart from some convertible bonds and will have $600m in spare cash. The new deal again requires FIRB approval. Patersons values OZL at around 50c post the deal on first look. It is now a copper stock.
  25. OZ Minerals bid from China Minmetals blocked – Wayne Swan announced he would not allow the Minmetals bid through in its current form because the main asset, Prominent Hill is in a weapons testing area. The FIRB are still evaluating the implications of the other asset sales and OZL say they are in constructive talks with bankers about their loan facilities and in talks with China Minmetals about possible changes to the takeover proposal. Doesn’t matter how you dress it, its not good news for Oz Minerals. They have until tomorrow night to extend their loan covenants.
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