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chiller

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About chiller

  • Birthday 11/16/2003

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    The survival of the human race, mainly. Well that and red wine.

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  1. Good win for the Aussies, good to see a great team effort. Regards Charles
  2. I posted this back in January this year at the other place, regarding impacts on the Nigeria economy that a KFE steel project could have. https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-compan...2#post-30726379 More recently there have been a number of articles and a video by the company CEO espousing a similar view. The company is finally shaking off the doldrums brought about by the pointless 249d action. Look at these recent news, video, and articles produced to see where the company is headed. Article https://steelguru.com/steel/kogi-iron-becom...-company/520081 CEO interviewed New director - Michael Arnett http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/default/file...nts/6898787.pdf The big picture http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/compan...ess-204324.html Article http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/compan...uct-203942.html Good reading.
  3. Here are my notes from the EGM. There were no journos there to record the truth but who ever let truth get in the way of a good story. And only a couple of ex-cricketers too. Kogi Iron EGM Celtic Club 48 Ord St, West Perth. Monday 2-7-2018 The table at the front of the room was occupied from left to right by Kevin Hart (Company Secretary); Michael Tilley (Non-Executive Director); Mark Foster (EGM Chairman – Steinepreis Paganin); Ian Burston (Non-Executive Director and Company Chairman); Don Carroll (Non-Executive Director); Martin Wood (Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer). Mark Foster (MF) welcomed everyone to the meeting and informed the meeting that he had been appointed by the Board of Directors to act as Chairman of today's meeting. MF introduced the directors in attendance as well as Kevin Hart the company secretary. MF apologised for Kevin Joseph's absence who is in Nigeria. MF also acknowledged the attendance of BDO, the company auditors, and Link Market Services. MF stated that the purpose of the meeting was to deal with the formal business set out in the Notice of General Meeting on the 29-5-2018, today's meeting was convened by the company to deal with the submitted 249D. MF also stated that there are 8 items on the today's agenda as set out in the notice of meeting, resolutions 1-6 are subject to the requisition, resolutions 1-3 relate to the appointment of the proposed directors and resolutions 4-6 relate to the removal of the incumbent directors. Resolution 7&8 relate to the ratification of share issues. MF explained to the meeting that he would read out each resolution and the take questions on each resolution after they had been read. If the question asked does not relate to the resolution then MF will rule the question in admissible and move on. Once all resolutions have been read those with undirected proxies my vote and a final vote will be recorded. MF stated that Mr Hart had confirmed there was a quorum for the meeting and therefore MF declared the meeting open. I noted approximately 35-45 people in attendance. MF said proxies had been received from 534 shareholders representing 500,587,137 shares representing 76.5% of the companies issued capital. MF said he would vote all undirected proxies against 1-6 and for 7&8 The votes were shown on a screen at the meeting as indicated in the proxy results in the meeting results released on Monday. MF read resolution 1 in to the minutes with proxies For 236,472,665, Against 256,654,254 and Undirected 7,460,218. MF called for any discussion on resolution 1. A lawyer acting on behalf of Leadenhall Australia Pty Ltd, stated there had not been acceptance of the nominations in accordance to the constitution and as a results there could be no valid appointment of new directors. Correspondence relating to this issue was sent to you the previous evening. Therefore the appropriate course of action, the lawyer proposed, was that if resolution 1-3 were carried then the meeting should be adjourned until court proceedings could be dealt with. MF responded that the relevant documentation had been completed in accordance with relevant requirements and that was the company view. The lawyer also said that there were substantial issues regarding disclosure of associates and there may be agents acting together and that there are grounds for objection to these associates voting. MF responded that he was satisfied the vote should be counted. The lawyer asked that their objections to MF's ruling be noted. MF noted the objections. Curtis Blades ask if Philip Ashley was in attendance and if so could the Chair please point him out. MF said I am not sure he is here, and then he said no he is not. Curtis Blades commented that he thought that someone running for a position on the Board of Directors not turning up to the meeting in which he might be voted on to the Board and not able to take shareholder questions as very disappointing. The Chair noted Mr Blades disappointment. Resolution 2 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 236,472,665, Against 256,654,254 and Undirected 7,460,218. MF asked for any discussion on resolution 2. Curtis Blades asked if Malcom Brandon was in attendance. MF said he did not know Mr Brandon and asked the meeting if he was in attendance. (There was no response) Resolution 3 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 236,472,665, Against 256,654,254 and Undirected 7,460,218. MF asked for any discussion on resolution 3. Curtis Blades asked is John Maclean at the meeting. MF replied again that he did not know Mr Maclean and asked if he could make himself known. (There was no response) Resolution 4 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 233,222,193, Against 259,891,604, Undirected 7,452,218 and Abstained 21,111 MF asked for any discussion on resolution 4. I asked two questions relating to Terrain Capital. I said there are rumours that there is a conflict between Terrain Capital and Mr Carroll. I also asked whether Terrain Capital favoured Terrain Capital clients in the recent share placement in February 2018. DC responded that he was an advisor to Terrain Capital and he was not a director of Terrain. There was no conflict of interest, he said that in any event if there was any decision about Terrain Capital he would abstain from the vote. Regarding favouritism, all of the Requisitioning Members were offered shares in the placement and 5 of the 7 Requisitioning Members chose to take up shares. The Requisitioning Members were all contacted even if they were not clients of Terrain Capital, and DC also pointed out that 80% of the placement went to existing shareholders. Resolution 5 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 233,122,193, Against 259,891,615, Undirected 7,552,218 and Abstained 21,111 MF asked for any discussion on resolution 5. I asked if Mr Tilley could address the conflict issue. He said he was a chairman of Terrain, he didn't receive any fees and didn't have any shares in Terrain. In theory, there was a conflict of interest but he had notified the board of that fact, he didn't take part in any discussions relating to Terrain Capital or any vote relating to Terrain Capital. I asked if all of this information was documented and minuted and Mr Tilley responded yes. Resolution 6 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 233,134,693, Against 259,874,115, Undirected 7,552,218 and Abstained 21,111 MF asked for any discussion on resolution 6. I pointed out to the meeting that there have been numerous rumours floating around about the security of the exploration licenses and mining leases in Nigeria. I then asked Mr Wood to please confirm that these assets are secure? MW said they were 100% owned by subsidiaries of Kogi Iron. IB added that the exploration leases had been converted to mining leases, the exploration licenses were subjected to 3 month renewal, where the mining leases did not require renewal for 5 years. It was clear that mining leases had been granted, there was one additional exploration lease that hadn't been acted on but the mining leases to which I referred are quite safe. Phil Walls asked if there were any change in Kogi staff in Nigeria , ie IB or KJ, would it have an impact at the local level. MW said the relationships were with the company all licenses and agreements were in the name of the company not any individual. The same question was put to IB, would it have a significant impact on the project. IB said not at the government level. He addressed if it would have an impact at the local level by saying the people who were in Nigeria either himself, KJ or someone else would continue to have a relationship at that the local level, and that there was no thought of it being anyone else, other than IB or KJ at this time. I asked about rumours of MW's appointment being made while IB was in hospital. I addressed my question to MW, however IB jumped in here. IB answered he wasn't in hospital it was a board decision to appointment MW and that the rumour was a nonsense Resolution 7 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 233,222,193, Against 259,891,604, Undirected 7,452,218 and Abstained 21,111 MF asked for any discussion on resolution 7. Resolution 8 was read in to the minutes, with proxies For 233,222,193, Against 259,891,604, Undirected 7,452,218 and Abstained 21,111 MF asked for any discussion on resolution 8. The lawyer asked MF again if motions 1-3 were carried was it his attention to close the meeting or adjourn to allow the injunction proceedings to continue. MF said he would close the meeting and he was not aware of the court proceedings. Lawyer said the papers were served on your office this morning and we urge you to reconsider your position. MF responded your concerns are noted. I asked the Chair to please confirm that any shareholder present at the meeting could change their vote. MF confirmed that shareholders in attendance could change their vote. After about 20 minutes the MF declared the results. The vote counting was conducted by Link Market service and was independently verified. The results from the vote were released Monday and you will note that some people change their vote following questioning at the meeting. MF called the meeting closed. No questions from the Requisitioning Members!! I only identified 3 Requisitioning Members in attendance although there may have been more. These are my notes and I hope are reasonably accurate. I did ask Mr Wood if the international resource investment fund was still in play. He said that they had indicated that if you (meaning Mr Wood) are successful, then when this is over come back to us and if we are still interested then we can begin renegotiation. He was hopeful they would still be interested. Mr Wood also indicated that this action had been a major distraction and it may take a short while for the company to get back to business. So it seems a little patience may be required before things get back to normal. Good luck all.
  4. mullokintyre, rampers don't provide their analysis as well as state where their key assumptions come from. You are at liberty to debunk my research but to make a broad comment about me without even trying to understand what I have posted is pathetic, shallow and frankly doesn't deserve a response. I wish you good luck in your endeavours. Please do not post here again unless you have something substantive to say.
  5. Here is the latest valuation based on the recent Reuters article quoting the total cost of production around $350m
  6. Nice moves made over the past few days.
  7. Made a mistake with the FY label in the last P/E analysis should have been FY26. Corrected below
  8. Here is the latest valuation of Kogi Iron's potential earnings
  9. In the presntation in the link below, company states that it expects to be able to sell billet steel for $660/t and produce it for somewhere in the range $180-$240/t. ECA funders lined up. Large profit margin! http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6869946.pdf
  10. KFE making some nice moves recently.
  11. The metallurgical and production testing was validated as of the 24th of November 2016 but by the 3rd of March 2017 the company needed to do more metallurgical testing on a 50 tonne sample. The 50 tonne sample is for optimising the process to produce a steel billet of adequate quality for the steel industry in other words it is not do with testing the viability of a larger sample size but testing a variety of combinations of variables in the EAF process for producing the best steel product possible. This is a technical exercise about commercial production optimisation and plant design. The de-risking of this project does not depend on the outcome of the analysis of the 50 tonne sample, the project is in fact already de-risked!! I have previously stated that company should be valued closer to $60-$80m once the sample results came in, mistakenly thinking these results were important in validating the company's business model. I provide evidence below that the 50 tonne sample "forms an integral part of progressing Kogi's Definitive Feasibility Study" and that the testing informs the optimisation of commercial production and plant design. Given that the project is already de-risked and the business plan was validated as of 24th of November 2016 together with recent announcements, timing, up to 7Bt of ore and the obvious profit potential, the market cap should be valued closer to $80-$100m right now, that is around 15c rather than 6c. Justification behind the above claims, this is my view and based upon my research, this is not advice please do your own research. Recently, I began to wonder why it is that Kogi need a 50 tonne sample to prove the commercial viability of the project. And then I realised they don't. No doubt others are also operating under the same misconception. To disabuse anyone of this misconception it is important to go back through a number of previous company announcements. These are the key announcements to do with Tenova, PW Group, Mintek, steel products and the 50 tonne sample, over the past year or so. I have pasted the critical pieces from these announcements below, which I believe are necessary for understanding the purpose of the 50 tonne sample and how Kogi should be currently viewed and valued. The bold is mine to highlight what I consider to be fundamentally important points in these announcements, the most fundamental being that the company states it has already completed metallurgical testing and validation to produce steel. Let me state this again, Kogi have already completed the metallurgical testing to produce steel. I have also underlined 2 common statements in different announcements that I also consider very important. You will note the first of the underlined sections the company states "commercial production requirements", in the second this is shortened to "commercial requirements". I have always focussed on the commercial requirements thinking that it was about proving they could achieve the same %fe reported in April 2016 of 95%, and that this is make or break for the company. However, if you read the announcements through time as "an integral part of progressing Kogi's" DFS, the analysis of the sample is about optimising the plant design for maximising commercial production rather than being able to achieve some specified level of %fe. In other words, understanding the exact nature of the ore so that the plant is optimised for it specifically and hence the comment from the interview with IB about allowing the plant to "settle in" – ergo there will be additional optimisation after the plant is operational before increasing the output from the plant. Therefore, the sample is not about proving the %fe from a larger sample of ore but to understand the nature of the ore and production of steel to produce the best product for commercial use (Kogi has already shown it can make steel with the announcement on 26th of April 2016), and this analysis is important in the design of the plant and therefore important and integral for the completion of the DFS. The sample that has been sent to Mintek is 50 tonne, this is a huge sample. As I said above I began asking myself why does the company need such a huge sample? We know the ore is not that variable, in fact it is really consistent. Mintek has already done the work to "produce sponge iron, pig iron and the more valuable product – steel". The Mintek website provides a number of examples of the type of work they do, and the kind of analysis they produce. Amongst other things they specialize in: "Pyrometallurgical process development - an increasing amount of work is focused on the development of new or improved pyrometallurgical processes. Particular emphasis is placed on mass transfer aspects of process development up to small pilot-plant scale". http://www.mintek.co.za/Pyromet/Capabilities.htm. The sample is not about producing steel, the company knows it can produce steel, the purpose of the sample is to perform a range of tests to ascertain the best settings to produce the best product, given the use of an EAF. Once the company has all of this information, this then feeds in to the engineering and technical design requirements, which is part of the DFS. The testing of the 50 tonne sample is in effect an academic exercise, necessary to perform, but will not impact on the business plan. They can produce steel that is an absolute given. This should project should have a market cap of at least $80m-$100m, nearer 15c in my view than 6c. If you use the estimates provided in the Investor presentation announcement on 19 November 2015 you can see that this project has the potential to be incredibly profitable. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6742941.pdf My NPV analysis I have undertaken was based upon the numbers from the Investor presentation using a 15% discount rate and 30 year mine life (note in the following post, I said in perpetuity but in fact was based on a 30 year mine life) see https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/support-le.../#post-27948831 The price per earnings ratios I calculated were based upon the numbers from the Investor presentation (increased production takes some time to come online hence the multiple years of P/Es) see https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/pe...eria&.../#post-27758307 Inputs to these calculations can be found (includes a 30% tax rate after converting to AUD with deductions for accumulated losses and loan costs) https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/15c-fair-v...ost_id=28082388 and https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/15c-fair-v...ost_id=28082424 You can see the numbers are extraordinary, I believe I have been reasonably conservative in the construction of my analysis. However, do not take my word for it, it is not hard to construct a cash flow analysis to estimate P/E ratios, it is not hard to calculate Net Present Value, do your own analysis, you will see I am being conservative. My estimate for what the company should be currently valued at, I believe, is also conservative. If the company sells the project it could not be valued less than 250m USD (I believe this would be cheap), if the company proceeds to production you will potentially have an income for life, or until the steel plant is sold at a much higher value. Finally, when you look at the circumstance and timing of the company there is good reason for optimism that they will get finance to proceed to build a steel billet plant. The country is desperate to move away from the reliance on fossil fuels and we know the Government is a supporter of our project and consider our company a key mining operator in the country. The company has had discussions to the effect of potentially an all Nigerian funding package where the Nigerian local bank (No.2 in Nigeria) provided a letter of support for debt funding. We had the recent appointment of financial advisors of the calibre of Gabriel Buck and SD Capital. The appointment of Martin Wood as a Director which is in line with Kogi's strategy of advancing the Agbaja project and in particular to complement the recent appointment of SD Capital as debt and equity advisors. These announcements themselves clearly indicates that the company believes it is ready to attract financing. And then there is the project itself, low cost, low impact, engaged with the local community, can produce the value added product steel which can be used immediately to the benefit of the local economy. In my opinion, the timing and the circumstances places Kogi in exactly the right spot for a multitude of reasons to have confidence that they will secure finance once the DFS is completed. This is compelling evidence for the re-rate to continue well in to double digits. This is all based on the fundamentals of the company. Announcements providing evidence that the metallurgical and production testing that was validated as of November 24th 2016 and why the sample testing is not to do with the viability of a larger sample size but that which is "an integral part of progressing Kogi's" DFS and is about design and commercial optimisation. 26 April 2016 Mintek, a leading South African facility involved in minerals processing and metallurgical test work, has determined that the Company has an ability to produce three steel products at an on-site plant at Agbaja, including a finished product with iron content of more than 95% Fe. The key findings of the test work were: Confirmation of the ability to successfully use Agbaja ore to produce three distinct products with high Fe content.Confirmation of the ability to reduce impurities to levels acceptable for steel production.The opportunity to supply a product for more than one type of steel production, broadening the range of potential customers. The results are significant because they confirm to the Company that its planned iron processing plant at Agbaja can produce the intended products – sponge iron, pig iron and the more valuable product - steel. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6760906.pdf 6 July 2016 The conversion to sponge iron and thence to steel would remove a significant portion of the impurities to within international standards. The process has been confirmed as technically viable through extensive testing by South African group Mintek and German group Haver. While the Agbaja plant design is specific to the oolitic orebody, Kogi's reduction process is long established as a method of making steel products throughout the world. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6781456.pdf 14 November 2016 Kogi Iron Limited (ASX: KFE, "Kogi", "the Company") is pleased to announce that it has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with two major African-based groups to progress the Company's Agbaja iron ore and steel project in Nigeria. The MOUs are with South Africa-based Tenova Pyromet ('Tenova") and Nigeria-based PW Group ('PW'), two groups Kogi has identified as suitable providers of technical, engineering, construction and mining services to the Agbaja project. The MOUs create a framework under which contracts for service can be negotiated subject to suitable commercial terms being agreed. However, Kogi is not bound by the MOUs if acceptable terms are not reached, allowing the Company to enter discussions with other parties. Tenova is a leading company in the design and supply of high-capacity electric submerged-arc smelting furnaces and complete smelting plants for the production of ferroalloys, base metals, slag cleaning and alloy refining. PW is a mining, construction and civil engineering group that has operated in Nigeria for 42 years, serving a wide range of corporate and government clients such as Shell, Chevron and the Nigerian Federal Government. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6799130.pdf 24 November 2016 In 2016, Kogi made significant progress on many fronts in bringing this project to fruition. These include: Advancing the feasibility study for AgbajaProgressing environmental and community approvalsAdditional metallurgical and production testing of Agbaja iron ore and its suitability for producing steel productsFunding arrangements to fund Kogi's corporate costs through to the point where it procures main project fundingExecuting MOUs with Tenova Pyromet and PW Group on technical, engineering, mining and construction services. However, the past year has also brought with it some frustrations, with project development taking longer than anticipated. Critical tasks such as validation of metallurgical and production testing took longer than expected* and, as a consequence, other milestones haven't been met as quickly as first thought. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6800755.pdf *past tense as of 24 November 2016 not waiting on analysis of 50 tonne sample 3 March 2017 Following discussions with Tenova Pyromet ('Tenova'), the PW Group ('PW') and Mintek, the company will undertake the excavation and transport of a 50 tonne bulk sample for metallurgical testing over the coming weeks. The testing, to be conducted by Mintek in Johannesburg, and forms an integral part of progressing Kogi's Definitive Feasibility Study. Mintek is South Africa's national mineral research organisation and is one of the world's leading technology organisations specialising in mineral processing, extractive metallurgy and related areas. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6812272.pdf 20 April 2017 Final discussions are in progress with Mintek and Tenova, both South African organisations, to now progress pyrometallurgical testing to satisfy commercial production requirements; and to progress engineering and technical design. Tenova will also be responsible for preparation of the detailed Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS). Mining of sufficient tonnage to enable Mintek to progress the metallurgical testwork has been completed and despatch of the required quantities by road and sea to South Africa is being finalised. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6817564.pdf 6 July 2017 Project Testwork The Company had been engaged in discussions with Tenova Pyromet ('Tenova'), the PW Group ('PW') and Mintek to progress the pyrometallurgical testing necessary to satisfy commercial requirements and to progress engineering and technical design. Final estimates for this test work have now been received. The Company has experienced unforeseen delays with the in-country process of exporting mined material to South Africa, including obtaining the necessary governmental approvals. These approvals are now complete. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6842268.pdf If you have got to here well done you deserve a pat on the back! I don't believe the market has really woken up to the potential of this company, do your own research and make your own conclusions. Good luck. Cheers Charles
  12. New director appointment, Martin Wood from Vicarage Capital in London. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6855529.pdf Also read this announcement from the previous week. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6854490.pdf Cheers Charles
  13. Time to look at this one again, has moved recently but I expect it to have a lot further to go in the next 6-12 months. If they take this to a mine the returns could be very good, imo. The following will get anyone up to speed pretty quickly. Emerging iron ore producer Kogi Iron supplies Nigeria’s steel market https://www.miningreview.com/news/emerging-...s-steel-market/ 19 November 2015 Investor presentation http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6742941.pdf 26 April 2016 Testing supports quality of ore, steel products http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6760906.pdf 3 March 2017 Kogi project update - Mining licenses granted http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6812272.pdf 20 April 2017 Testing to satisfy commercial production requirements http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6817564.pdf 6 July 2017 Commercial-in-confidence discussions with interested joint venture partners are ongoing and subject to strict confidentiality. http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6842268.pdf 1 September 2017 Project testwork shipment http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6849317.pdf 13 September 2017 Share placement to raise approximately $700,000 http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6850661.pdf 28 September 2017 Containers of sample material is currently in transit http://www.kogiiron.com/sites/kogiiron.com...nts/6852636.pdf
  14. There's another PR opportunity lost now with Hodge retiring. Regards Charles
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