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Everything posted by Jimmy123

  1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yC-9QUpJGp4 Guy sounds like a $%##% but makes one or two good points. KRudd such a funny man....Thinks he can defy history and softly softly deflate the housing market......Hey KRudd did you skip Eco 101?? Bubbles go longer than everyone expects.....Don't gain confidence from fact this is holding up longer than expected, it is usual behaviour. Anyway enough warnings it's all out...Take your goggles of and see the facts. Do you people realise we have just finished the biggest housing boom in Australian history??? Who the hell in their right mind would go and buy a house now? Explain to me please I just don't get it? Just rent and save yourselves 100's of thousands of dollars.....Pretty easy decision would have thought. Over and out
  2. Well Mags where in a credit crunch but lets just gear up the young people so they experience a bit of pain as well.....Good idea? Yeah good thinking Kev....Then at least when they are 50 they will be able to say I remember what happened in 2009/2010. We have record debt/GDP but hey stuff it lets not make it a commonwealth record then really drive it up and make sure we get the olympic record.....That should make the slide a bit more fun anyway. Just remember people. The housing bulls at the moment are the same people that told you "Subprime issues are just going to be a US problem, Aus is in great shape" And my favourite "Stronger for longer....We are bullish commodities because of the China/India infrastructure boom.....blah blah blah.....But commodity prices have just dropped 50%???? Nah freddy that's just the olympic factor....Remember freddy STRONGER FOR LONGER STORNGER FOR LONGER....Say it again Freddie...... you got it? Please guys think for yourselfs and don't get sucked in......The logic and facts are their if you just do a bit of independant research. Also Bubbles don't have soft landings!!!!! Remember that. Never have and never will! Has Aus property been in A bubble?....Of course it has.......The facts are all there....Just been patient....It will happen!
  3. On this basis, the current Australian house price bubble is about 75% more extreme than the USA’s, which is now clearly in free-fall. A fall in Australian house prices is inevitable, and it will be driven by the household sector’s attempt to de-lever from its currently unprecedented level of debt. This de-leveraging will drive the economy down, taking employment with it–and especially the jobs of First Home Buyers, who are definition have less secure employment than older, established home owners. As I argued when The Boost was first announced (Rescuing the Economy or the Bubble? Debtwatch Blog October 19 2008), the policy is a mistake that will backfire on the Rudd Government when the global financial crisis finally comes home to roost here. Despite the bleatings of the property lobby, it should not be extended past its current termination date. From a link on page 2. So so true.......It must be amazing for KRudd how easily he can trick people. Don't know how he sleeps at night. Don't get fooled people it will hit here, and it will hit hard. Remember the people who said "suprime lending that is just a problem in the US, it wont flow on to our economy.....ha ha ha those same $%$#@#$# are saying our housing will be immune.....So #$$%%# laughable.......It's like lemmings....Just leed them to the edge and over they go.......... Can anyone see through this, or are you all been fooled like the $%%^$# First home buyers...???
  4. Cheers Ferret. Ready for the short ball. Play the pull shot better than Ricky. Bring it on, but would want to be on target........ Ferret I have a strong dislike for those greed infested dishonest buggers........They pushed their luck in the good times heres hoping they get a good old fashioned reality check. Hey one more thing....Aus property is the old developed country where real estate bubble hasn't popped.....tick tock tick tock.....Good old K.Rudd Just delays the inevitable and sucks in a few more suckers. Wonder what happens in KRudd's meetings Tommy: "Hey Kev, what happens when unemployment doubles to 10%+ and the first home buyers can't pay their mortgages? Wont that put the banks under pressure, and start a massive panic downard spiralling housing market?"" Kev: "Tommy, Shhhhhhh they haven't worked out that unemployment will double yet.....Just keep that one quite and we will cross that bridge when it comes..."" Tommy: "But Kev, wont that just make things worse when the inevitable comes??" Kev: "Geez Tommy, what is wrong with you boy??? This FHOG is me only blo%dy policy that is doing anything to prop up our stuffed economy....I need the support at the minute Tommy so just keep your trap shut..." Tommy: "But Kev, isn't it immoral to encourage young people to buy properties they can't afford???" Kev: "Ahhh Tommy, been nice working with you, today will be your last day if you would kindly close the door behind you..." Kev: "Any other questions?" Rest of Party: "Nah Kev, great policy mate, keep up the good work"
  5. Aus property is 30% overvalued. Can't be more confident. Only problem is you just don't know when will come back to fair value. Another thing can be certain of is will overshoot to the downside. Stupid first home buyers all panicking to buy overvalued property even though the grant will 100% for sure be extended.
  6. McHugh's analysis is spot on IMO. Time to adjust our thinking to the worst case scenario - OUCH!
  7. Just re-read first post. I can't believe I actually have under-estimated how bad this is going to get. Another significant negative which will be added to first post is immigration will actually be wound back, lowering the underlying demand figure. Ouch!! Will you hear housing commentators discuss this negative?? Of course not....Ah the lies we are been fed.
  8. tick tock tick tock tick tock.........only a matter of time. Read first post of this thread.....only a matter of a time.......Except will be worse than I first thought. Only house prices that will hold up are those under $350k
  9. AED are doing a buyback. Therefore have spare cash. THerefore will step in at some stage as, they have to pay NWE for years to come.
  10. hello all apologies but sold out for a loss in teens. Have been buying back in since 4 cents. Obviously risky move but i am comfortable buying at these. If survive will be 30-60 cents in twelve months time. Obviously if cant pay loan loose it all. However i believe risk reward is in favour of buying at these levels. many sofisticated investors are fully aware that oil will be $200 in a few years time and hence will support things here. Too much potential to go broke just requires investors to look through the cycle
  11. where are the stupid bulls? Read the first post of this thread! I picked this and all i have got for my efforts is abusive private messages from stupid bulls. I hope they are suffering in pain as the writing was on the wall and they chose to listen to manipulated media. Just starting to fall of the cliff plenty more to come. Its is bloody criminal that krudd hands out 21k even though if knows full and well people who take up the offer will loose at least 100k as a result. People of australia you have been fooled for too long. Wake up we have the most unafforeable housing in the world
  12. In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 20/01/09 10:02pm Hello all. Anyone know what time Obama speaks? Thoughts on market reaction before and after?
  13. In reply to: wolverine on Monday 12/01/09 08:02pm What about funding concerns? ie capital raising
  14. In reply to: flower on Tuesday 02/12/08 10:51pm Flower, Interesting point about the 3.5 times and 30% equity. I guess if we didn't stretch ourselves on the way up and didn't over react on the way down we would not get cycles and life would be boring. Such a good learning experience seeing all this play out. Trying to soak up as miuch of it as I can, in as many financial markets as possible. Can learn more from this than you would in 30 years of uni. The majority of people act when it's too late. ie stock market crashes then majority sell. Housing crashes then they are forced to sell. Best learning I have had is too back my convictions, even if the majority have a different opinion, as long as your reasoning is well researched. Around Oct-Nov last year I spent a lot of time researching the housing market, every conclusion I came to was negative. At this time everyone was as positive as could be, including those filfthy filfthy real estate agents. I even remember one young agent guaranteeing me housing prices wouldn't go down. I asked why, and she said because her boss told her so. I then asked her about the credit cruch and I don't think she even knew we were in one.
  15. In reply to: db76 on Wednesday 26/11/08 10:58pm Running a book, am laying that we finish at least 30% lower housing prices from the peak as an average. Any takers? Not including NSW as they are already there. Ugly ugly times.........Housing under supply, migration, rental vacancies ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha clowns. If you believed these lines got fooled by those with invested interests. Job cutting in full swing, and only just beginning. If you want a laugh go to an auction and listen to those agents that were telling us 12 months ago how prop prices would continue going up at 20% per annum. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
  16. In reply to: Danville on Tuesday 02/12/08 03:38pm dan not sure the market cares about santa this year. Everyone knows how bad the news flow will be out me the states in jan feb, so wouldnt be surprised if the market discounts it now and we hit new lows before christmas.
  17. In reply to: cwjohn on Saturday 22/11/08 09:40am I used to think that John, re recovery towards the end of next year. But I thought that, when we were in for a soft landing. Over the last 1-2 months it has become quite obvious that there will be no soft landing in Australia, and as a result I think it will push out the time for a recovery. Whoever said the next mining boom is about to start $%$#$ $%%$ #$%$%. Price have just crashed from all time highs, and economic theory plus common sense will tell you it will take some time for the next boom to begin. I mean seriously you just expect commod prices to bounce back up again do you?
  18. In reply to: Mags on Friday 21/11/08 08:47pm sook. Thankyou, nice to see some intelligent comments. Of course the govt will reduce immmigration. Exactly what the UK did as soon as they realised they were going into recession. Longer term i think the housing shortage will provide upside for housing, but unfortunitely it wont stop a crash in the next two years, because I just think demand will be that low. More people will live in apartments/units, and will be more people per house, due to the severe economic hardship coming our way. Also many Australians own 2,3,4,8,15 houses as they have tried to leverage the amazing run in housing. Many of these investors with multiple houses are now in trouble and will need to sell houses to survive. There takes more pressure of the so called housing shortage. I have talked about this before, but I challenge you to think for yourself, and not just take what realestate.com, ANZ, HIA etc say as gosbel. Most of the housing commentators have a bias, and therefore presents the facts in a way that suits them. Make no mistake we will have a recession worse than 1991, and the flow on will be enormous. 18 months ago people said The UK had a housing shortage which would provide a floor.............um I think that floor got broken, and unfortunitely everything points to that happening here. DOn't be fooled by the underlying demand figures produced by HIA and others, they are clearly inflated to support housing. If as expected the govt significantly decreases migration, then that underlying demand figure wont look anywhere near as rosy (that is if they are honest about it). I can't believe how naive Australians are. Yes property has had an amazing run over the last 20 years, and it may feel like prices never come down. But one fact remains through any investment in any timeframe of our history. "Any exaggerated bubble, always leads to a devastating bust" In our existance, since Adam was a boy I challenge anytime to find one time where this has not occurred????? I also challenge anyone to tell me that australian housing has not been in a bubble???? Wake up, protect yourself, and get out before the forced selling occurs. When I started this thread I had no idea how bad the world economy was going to get. We now must realise that it is worse than the majority of people could ever have imagined. We need to adjust with the news and times. Over the last 1-2 months the whole world has changed and the outlook for the world has changed. Basically it has become evident that the various stimulus packages will not be enough to save us, and there really is no other option left other than to cop the pain coming our way. The mining boom is OVER!!!! Another challenge for you guys....Look in history what has happened to housing after mining booms finish??? If you can't be bothered I will tell you....Housing gets smashed. It really is unfortunate but everything is lining up for this to be a once in 50 or 100 year housing crash. The banks are going to cop it, with bad debts etc. They are just not willing to admit it yet. Facts - Mining boom over, destroying Australia's no.1 strength over past 5 years. - World recession that willl have devastating flow on effects - Consumer confidence at record lows. - Finance lending at record lows. - Job cutting just begining and gaining momentum - Affordability still at terrible levels even with the lower interest rates. - credit crisis where credit is increasingly difficult to obtain, and will become even more difficult once lenders become nervous about lending to Australians for housing. - Share market having worst year in history and has not bottomed yet, with a large chance there is more falls to come. - The fact that in history we have often followed the UK and others in housing with a couple of year lag. - Peoples wealth through super etc been decimated. - Migration levels to be cut, due to our recession and unemployment. - The higher wealth Australians having to sell their investment properties. Please people with all of these negatives occuring at the same time, please tell me how Aus is not going to have a housing crash????
  19. In reply to: TheFerret on Friday 21/11/08 05:53pm exactly Ferret. Theadder, I mean seriously look what site that was posted on....Maybe a little bit biased. If you can't see that property is about to take a massive hit then forget about property investing or re-educate yourself. THe one positive that was holding up housing prises was a housing shortage. No with a 95% chance of recession next year there will be no supply problem, as there would be forced selling, unemployement and very little demand due to incredible wealth destruction. I am very confident in saying housing prises will drop 20% in many states next year, obviously varying from area to area. Recent reports suggest many suburbs have dropped 10-15% in the last month or so, and that is just a warm up, as the pressure will be on when the flow on effects of un-employment and slower economic growth come through. This will take a couple of years to play out. But next year will really kick things into action and the panic will begin.
  20. In reply to: Mags on Wednesday 19/11/08 06:44pm Silly silly bulls......Writing been on the wall for a long time. Sorry but I have no sympathy
  21. In reply to: orangeguy on Friday 24/10/08 11:07pm Is McHugh running the market????? More than credit, he has been amazingly on the ball. Dow futures limit down......hmmm When gets to 7000 or below take out 9-12 month long warrants on the DOW that's my attitude anyway. Be surprised if couldn't get a 3000-5000 point gain, and don't need to worry about covering the margin like you do with CMC index trades.
  22. In reply to: db76 on Monday 18/08/08 02:46pm As predicted I was a little early with this thread...... WHat now??? DB you were looking for 4000....Are you satisfied to buy now or still waiting.... Still think there is opportunities just have to be very selective. Am concerned on the flow on effect from the end of the commodities boom. ie unemployment, less money in the country.....Worried how that will flow on to housing, and the rest of our economy. Really need to smash down the interest rates ASAP. I reckon another 1% on cup day would not be over the top.....THoughts?
  23. In reply to: rbcrawford on Sunday 12/10/08 01:07pm Where are ya bulls??? Oh that's right you are getting burnt, and will only get more toasted in the next 6 months. A logical progression is for housing markets to suffer after equity markets. Read the start of this thread and listen to the silly bullish statements....... Any less than 15% falls from here will be a miracle. "Housing prices don't fall in Aus" argument already proven incorrect and will be proven more so in the next 6-12 months.
  24. Jimmy123


    In reply to: The Pro on Tuesday 19/08/08 10:18pm Still holding Nicky????
  25. In reply to: thresher on Sunday 17/08/08 07:43pm EB am aware of how the VIX works.....thanks all the same. Agree with your calls their Dan, except oil....think that will get pushed under $100 before rallying. XAO has to test 5300-5400 before any decline.
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