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Trav

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Everything posted by Trav

  1. In reply to: rossw on Thursday 08/02/07 09:59am Hi Ross I've been taking some time out from trading and pursuing the daily range strategy on Forex Factory. I'm pretty happy with the level of development of the strategy. My challenge is to learn how to programme in MQL and compile an EA. I'm pretty happy with my progress. At the end of this week I'm heading over to Melb for a week then Syd for two. Crow, how is your USD/JPY trading going?
  2. In reply to: wallaby on Sunday 21/01/07 10:00am Wallaby, Interesting conversation. Not sure it accomplished much. The chat dialogue was good.
  3. In reply to: wallaby on Wednesday 27/12/06 02:24pm Heh Wallaby just read a pretty negative post about Profinum. Thought you may want to read. It goes without saying you need to take anything you read with a chunk of salt. Anyway, what has your experience been like with them? Have you tried to take any money out of your account yet? Profinum post
  4. In reply to: RobAde on Thursday 11/01/07 08:35pm Rob, Sorry, can't help with that one. Have to admit I have been a little tardy concerning tax returns. I would guess that FX trading would be treated similar to trading shares.
  5. In reply to: AJ_ on Thursday 04/01/07 02:40pm A while ago I watched a facinating DVD by Oliver Velez titled Microtrading which covered a concept called "Trading the Clock". This used the US market as the example, however similar concepts would hold true to the Aus market as well. It focused upon the psychology of the market participants at certain points in time.
  6. In reply to: NightStalker on Wednesday 03/01/07 10:59pm I agree with you NS & Z. I'm happy to pyramid up. Just gotta be quick grabbing your chair when the music stops. Personally I don't sell to have a free carried trade. It just smacks of 'playing with the house's money' and all the implications of gambling psychology.
  7. In reply to: wallaby on Wednesday 27/12/06 05:53pm I love the irony that a company called velocity4x has an ordinary fill rate http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wacko.gif
  8. In reply to: wallaby on Wednesday 27/12/06 02:24pm Wallaby, Thanks for the review. Do you know if any of the platforms support the use of EA's? Profinum, seems curious. They do look a little too good to be true. Let me know how you go with them. I can understand the rule about scalping and they have a pretty good definition. I don't understand why they restrict the max lot size to 10 standard lots (100 in their terms). Heh, Crow, your already at their max http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/king.gif . They seem to be appealing to small players which is a little disconcerting.
  9. In reply to: spot on Friday 22/12/06 11:26pm Spot, like your post. You have made a good arguement for Guaranteed Stop Losses presuming the broker doesn't go broke with an extreme event. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ohmy.gif I've attended numerous courses and hardly any of them cover Delta risk, market risk or hedging strategies. At best they pay lip service to it. I would guess that quite a few buy and hold investors are running an extreme portfolio Delta risk and are not even aware of the concept. I am really glad that CFD's & ETO's have increased the availablility of hedging strategies such as pairs trading, delta neutral trading. Makes you wonder if the stock exchanges will eventually adopt a limit down function like the futures markets.
  10. In reply to: spot on Friday 22/12/06 11:26pm Spot, like your post. You have made a good arguement for Guaranteed Stop Losses presuming the broker doesn't go broke with an extreme event. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ohmy.gif I've attended numerous courses and hardly any of them cover Delta risk, market risk or hedging strategies. At best they pay lip service to it. I would guess that quite a few buy and hold investors are running an extreme Delta risk and are not even aware of the concept. I am really glad that CFD's & ETO's have increased the availablility of hedging strategies such as pairs trading, delta neutral trading. Makes you wonder if the stock exchanges will eventually adopt a limit down function like the futures markets.
  11. In reply to: wallaby on Sunday 24/12/06 03:42pm AJ, I've found the price moves instantly when data is released. In the early days I tried reading and interpreting the news but found by the time I've scanned the first paragraph the move has already been made. I found I had a quicker entry if I traded the break on the chart and read the news after I have completed my trade. Spread, slippage and the platforms reaction time can be a major problem for trading news. No doubt some brokers are better than others. A thought I've had to reduce these issues (which I haven't tested) is to force open both a buy and a sell position in the consolidation zone before the news release obth with GSL's. It is basically an exit strangle, rather than getting one leg stopped in you are getting one leg stopped out. Whilst you have both positions open your Delta is basically zero because one position negates the other. Since you are entering before the news event the spread is normal. Since you have a GSL, slippage is not an issue. You could leg in during the consolidation to geta good fill price. And place the GSL's about 10-20 away from the range of the consolidation zone to try to pick the point of a good break rather than a whipsaw. The largest risk is both positions get stopped out by whipsaw action, the other large risk is that price retraces to negate profit so a sensible TP would need to be set. My focus is currently on a daily range strategy so I haven't taken that thought any further, but thought I'd mention it. AJ, link below. Daily Range Strategy Wallaby, would you mind giving a summary of your experience with the brokers you mentioned: positives, negatives, spread, platform, customer service?
  12. In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 21/12/06 04:35pm Crow, I think he probably doesn't fully comprehend how a conditional order is executed with IG. It is set out in the PDS. The midprice triggers the entry order at market unless you specify otherwise. The PDS may be a boring doc to read but it is SO important to understand. Even if he didn't bother reading the PDS he probably could have cleared up the misunderstanding with his account manager. An excerpt from page 52 is below. I hope for his sake he only makes rash decisions concerning brokers and not whilst trading. Stop Orders and Limit Orders for FX CFDs (12) If we accept a Stop Order or Limit Order for a CFD that is an FX CFD then, provided you continue to satisfy the factors referred to at Terms 4(5)(g), (h),(i), (j), (k), and (l), and subject to Terms 10(6), 10(7) and 10(13), as a default we will act on that Order by opening or closing (as the case may be) the FX CFD to which the Order relates at a level determined in accordance with Term 10(3) when the mid-point of our quote has reached or exceeded the specified level. (13) For any Stop Orders or Limit Orders on FX CFDs, we may, whether on our internet dealing platform(s) or otherwise, offer you the following choice: any Orders to be triggered at either (a) the bid price (in the case of an order to Sell) or the offer price (in the case of an order to Buy) quoted to you; or (b) the mid-point of our quote
  13. In reply to: crowman28 on Wednesday 20/12/06 08:32pm Crow, glad to here you are getting good results. Lately I have been researching a daily range strategy on ForexFactory. The thread is currently 44 pages long so it is taking me a while to read. The particular strategy I'm interested in is by a member: MarkJ. Basically orders to open on GBP/USD are placed 20 pips away from london session open with a 20 pip SL. Three orders are opened with TP at 14, 30, 80 pips. SL on the 3rd TP is moved to breakeven when 2nd TP is hit. More details on the thread. They are investigating gettting an EA to automatically trade the plan which would suit me in my circumstances. Hmm. I think your friend may be looking at the open position screen which uses the midprice and therefore half the spread would have been accounted for. I get charged a 3 pip spread on GBP/USD by IG regardless of method of execution. The only exception is you get charged a larger spread for using a GSL or during volatile times such as data reports. I'm relegated to dialup for the next few days NOOO......... http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif I am soo looking forward to 24MBPS download speed. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif
  14. Happy, I was just kidding, however I like your links so I'll don the cloak and dagger and check it out. AJ, I've found the tech support at IG to be very helpful so give them a bell with your issue. I found my computer had three popup blockers: Windows, Google and Yahoo. Life was alot less frustrating after I disabled them. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif Oh I'd also recommend updating your Sun Java and make sure the options in IE choose Sun rather than Microsoft VM. Crow, If you have data for more than a year it may be worth backtesting your method over the silly season to see if it is worth trading or taking a holi like alot of banks and brokers.
  15. Wow, quite a few posts since yesterday. I'm currently changing ISP's so if I don't answer a query quickly I'm not ignoring anyone. AJ, the only problem I have had loging into IG's platform is with popup blockers which I have now disabled and with work who blocks streaming data. I know some platforms disable the automatic order placing system just prior to major news events and transact manually. They transact according to their rules. Basically if you don't like the way they transact you can complain, flame or change. I would recommend the latter. If you get a similar fill from other platforms you need to query if the system is profitable given the trading conditions. I started out trading news for a while but found the fill and slippage challenged the viability of the system so I gave it away with the view that I may check it out again when I have faster internet speed (happening soon) and a more robust plan. This brings me to the next topic. The problem with trading news is after the report is released everyone jumps on going one direction which causes liquidity problems (if your broker can't cover their position they are likely to make a loss filling your position which is obviously not sustainable for the broker). The liquidity problems causes major slippage for stop entry orders (BTW IG doesn't requote). Also trading platforms are inundated with orders which slows the processing. So that is the trading environment. So if you want to trade the news it is worth researching a good platform for trading the news and forming a strategy which controls for these risks. There are basically two ways of trading after the news release: place an entry order on both sides of price action (strangle) with the view that one gets triggered or click fast when you see the price spike. There are good websites like babypips.com which outline the advantages and disadvantages so I wont go into that. Enter EA's, they are code which automates a trading plan so they are good for fast trading situations such as news. Happy, I haven't checkout forexbastards, sounds like a good site to be aware of but to take each flame in context and time. Iang, I videotape every trade so if I have a dispute I have evidence. I also review my trades after the fact to see if I can improve. The regulators are mentioned in the PDS on the brokers website. Ahh...conspiracy theories...love them...could spend all my time reading about them...but would rather make money trading. There is a serious flaw in Callista mans theory. If he was checking price action from two different providers for an instrument which is listed on a centralised exchange and he picks a discrepancy then he has reason to query. However FX is OTC (Over The Counter) which means there is no centralised exchange which means there will be differences in price action depending upon the data feed the broker uses. So if he thinks his broker is dodgy it is a good time for him to vote with his feet. Happy, I think you will find stop hunting is less prevalent in FX than the stock market because of the volume of orders required to move the market. AJ, if you want you can change your funds back into AUS (choose a good time to do so). If you go into deficit they will convert the funds automatically. Happy, how do you become a member of the secret society...wink, wink nudge nudge. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif I just want to know the secret handshake.
  16. In reply to: happy2 on Monday 18/12/06 10:43pm Happy, Crow would be the one to answer that query. Regarding IG they don't charge a fee when exchanging funds. You may as well choose your time to exchange the funds. Recently I have been checking out the EA championship. I like Phoenix's EA and he has made it open source which is very noble. EA Note: if your not familiar with EA's they are Expert Advisers, that is MetaTrader code which automates a trading system.
  17. In reply to: happy2 on Thursday 14/12/06 05:56pm Happy, I'll get the chip off my shoulder. There was some interesting info on that site. I didn't see a link to the info you quoted below. However I just had a quick browse through the site.
  18. In reply to: happy2 on Thursday 14/12/06 04:37pm Happy, smells dodgy from the first paragraph http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif . Could you post the link or name of company. Can't identify it from the quote. Have to say I have alot more time for practitioners than marketers. If the system is successful and they derive their main source of income from it, can't see a need to flog it for thousands. If they derive their main source of income from flogging the system for thousands chances are the system looks good but doesn't work too well. Oww!! that brought the cynical devil out in me. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/devilsmiley.gif Heh, lets put the challenge out there. If anyone has paid thousands for an FX course or system and it has given them personally a 1000% return (10 fold) on the cost of the course. Post it up!!!
  19. In reply to: holiday on Tuesday 12/12/06 05:16pm Holiday, if the spread is greater than 3 pips I would hope they offer something to compensate for the greater spread.
  20. In reply to: holiday on Tuesday 12/12/06 04:31pm No. sorry can't comment
  21. In reply to: holiday on Tuesday 12/12/06 11:55am Holiday, IG and CMC originated from the UK so they are regulated both in the UK and AUS. The main reason I went with IG was I didn't like CMC's practice of requoting share prices. With IG what you click is what you get basically regardless of market depth. At the time IG was the only CFD provider to offer guarranteed stop losses which I liked for trading volatile/illiquid stocks or for highly leveraged positions (because I could absolutely define my risk, I used a strategy of pyrimiding into long term stocks so I could hold a much larger position than if I had risks of gaps, slippage or insolvency). I also had some bad customer service experiences from CMC so decided not to go with them (to put that in context, this was 4 years ago and a CMC rep was recently telling me they have solved their customer service problems). IG offers 2-3 pip spread on majors, probably the same as CMC. Their spread on minors doesn't seem to be as competative as CMC's however I don't intend to trade the minors. During NFP (one of the most volatile periods of FX) their spread widened to 10 pips and it took about 3 minutes for the orders to execute, I also suffered about 20pips slippage on the stop entry orders. This was sigificantly better than CMGA's platform which took 7 minutes. Currently I'm happy with IG Markets and their platform. However in the future I may trade with IG index (spread betting) because of the 'potential tax free nature'. I may also use a dedicated FX provider such as CMGA. What impressed me about CMGA's platform is that it is the fastest trade execution I have seen, you can trade on the chart (ie click and drag your stop or limit to where you want it), you can use trailing stop losses, the alerts are a great timesaver, the charts are very good and offer FX applicable tools such as Pivot points and Fib lines. THings I didn't like were the response time in major data events, trendlines didn't stay put when resizing between large and small timeframes and I found the account info difficult to read. I think the problem with fills and slippage on major data events is common to most platforms. I've heard that some providers won't offer a market for major data events. Hope this helps
  22. Crow, You know I would have said more downward pressure and at the least consolidation. However yesterday we see a pretty strong reversal candle. Price tested a new low and there was strong price rejection ending with the candle reaching half the length of the body of fridays candle. I would at least like to see consolidation for a week however yesterdays candle may be the reversal and upwards we continue. It will be interesting to see what today brings. Last night I shorted GBP/USD with a 20 PT and 10 SL. Price dutifully passed my entry and dropped 10 pips, then decided to retest and stopped me out. Dejavue!!! I then pondered the wisdom of Crow's 10 pip PT and why do I target more than 10 pips if it is an easy to achieve target. Maybe I still need to excise the "let the profits run" brainwashing from my feeble cerebellum. Maybe it is from seeing several instances of 50-100 pip moves and thinking that I would be missing out on the potential profit of large moves. Let me know your thoughts.
  23. In reply to: happy2 on Monday 11/12/06 04:52pm Good pick Happy, hope it was profitable for you.
  24. Jaym, thanks for the insight. Crow, I've been watching or trading NFP for the last 6 months. This time around it was a significantly different movement than the last 5. So be careful extrapolating from this event as it was not "typical". If you want to study NFP, the article I was reading had 4 years of NFP data. If you have an interest tell me, and I'll post the link.
  25. In reply to: crowman28 on Saturday 09/12/06 10:43pm Crow, NFP is one of the most volatile periods in FX. Usually you see a 120pips move. This one was quite different in the fact that it made a -30 pip move then around 20 mins later made the 100 pip move. Usually the move is immediately after the data release and the majority of the move is made in 15 mins. I was just reading a thread on another formum (Yes I admit I'm a floosie) which was looking at the direction of the break caused by NFP as a good predictor of the trend of the pair for that month. It was a good article but I sure don't know how to interpret this NFP. It went down, then up, then down http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wacko.gif . So does that mean we will have a volatile month http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/icon14.gif To answer your question, you will often see spikes of 50-100 pips for major data reports for GBP/USD, especially if there is a large surprise factor. If the market is trending strongly it can also make a big figure move after London and/or US open quite rapidly. Basically one side is overwhelmed and it takes strong direction. It can revert just as quickly though. So you have to hover over the close button and try to pick the point where momentum is exhausting.
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