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jaolsa

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Everything posted by jaolsa

  1. jaolsa

    YOUTUBE!

    triage - after clicking on your link, i also checked out susan boyle on youtube and admit to getting a tad misty-eyed. how sweet was she.
  2. ok, here's one of my charts for the spx. moving averages continue to define price movement quite nicely. a break of 840 and the next target down is obvious. http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss249/jaolsa/chart-7.png
  3. hi arty just wanted to post my appreciation of your chart. it actually helped me fight the urge to lock in profits too soon today. i had a couple of stocks do a nice run from opening lows today. i tend to keep an eye on the u.s. market - nice to know someone is keeping an eye on the aussie. btw, maximum pain for the spx is currently sitting at approx. 800 for this month's options expiry.
  4. maximum pain for upcoming spx options expiry still at approx 800. various sentiment indicators also suggest a pullback this week likely: - ticker sense: http://tickersense.typepad.com/ - a ise reading of 200+ on all equities http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?c...&menu0=true how much of a pullback are we likely to get. according to my daily chart, good support at 830'ish and then 795. weekly support at 835, 800 and then 780. anything more than that, i'd be worried. just my worthless 2c.
  5. Below is my cash chart for the spx - which i find sometimes provides different perspective from cmc's continuous chart. Note that on cash, price didn't break below the uptrend line from the March 6 lows. Next obvious points of resistance for next week is 870ish and then 915. But for now, time to enjoy the break - Happy Easter all. http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss249/jaolsa/y_gspc04apr08_to_22apr09.png
  6. sorry - doing too many things too quickly......meant to say support had held up SO FAR. no guarantees that it will continue to do so. stops in place at next line of support.
  7. as expected, price revisited last session's low and support held up - resistance previously built up at around 838 as now broken down and price can move up if that is the market's plan. worth a tiny long. http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss249/jaolsa/chart-6.png
  8. Rates go down again Chris Zappone April 7, 2009 - 2:31PM The Reserve Bank has dropped its benchmark interest rate today, after pausing in March, as it battles the global slowdown dragging on the economy. The central bank cut the key cash rate by 25 basis points to 3%, its lowest level since March 1960. The RBA has chopped 425 basis points since September in an effort to keep the economy from slipping into reverse gear. Today's 25-basis-point cut, if passed along in full by the banks, will knock about $46 off the monthly repayment on a $350,000 loan over 25 years. Many economists had predicted no change before this afternoon's announcement. More to come. czappone@fairfax.com.au
  9. Oh - one more note. While reviewing my SPX charts over the weekend, I couldn't help resist my natural bullish nature. Perhaps I'm just plain crazy but it sure does look good on a weekly basis. The weekly suggests that at some point, it may rally all the way back to 1100-1200 - too early to work out better targets at this stage ....and of course, I could be horribly wrong.
  10. I was finally stopped out my possie on the SPX overnight. It was a nice ride while it lasted. I have resistance on multi timeframes sitting between 838-40 that may only be broken down if perhaps it revisits overnight lows before another attempted rally. Short term - I have a couple of turns due next week. I believe historically that the US market normally does ok leading into Easter...so my turns may work out, but I may resort to scalping the SPX for the next few days unless I see a safer reentry. Bank's stress tests are coming up towards the end of April - but who knows, their 1st quarter earnings may be ok and cancel out any ill affects. Good support has built up around the 720 level on the SPX - so any decline may be mild. Waffle waffle waffle. I'll stop.
  11. what makes me feel a little queasy about my double bottom call is that this rally is fairly similar to the one we had in may 2008. i admit to being an e-wave novice.....but, how do we count this move. if the rally to may 08 high was wave 2 up, is this a 4th in a down trend with a 5th down still to come? thu, i do trust my my moving average grid and it suggests the march low is very similar to the chart pattern of the 1974 low. like in 1974, we've had a vicious upswing in a short timeframe. do we continue to follow it path and make a high low in equal time? continuation of more upside this week will move the weekly indicators closer to overbought territory similar to the last may's high. at the moment, i still continue to anticipate that mid april will bring in a significant high. if so, i think my upside target of 920-40ish (which i've held for a while) may prove to be close to the mark. however, i've also been watching various sentiment indicators, including commitment of traders, the ise index and maximum pain calculator for options expiry......and i don't want to push my luck too much. i'll continue to cash in on profits next week and play it safe. many of my stocks are close to my profit targets and that's good enough for me. maximum pain has stubbornly not moved from 790 for the spx....upside for now may be limited.
  12. sabretoothed - that stuff has been circulating on the net and science mags for ages. just do a google on solar cycle 24. Interesting intro line to the article you posted. Strange as it may sound to some, there has been tonnes of research showing strong correlation between sunspot activity and the stock market.....but that's another story.
  13. kelt I'm fairly sure that quote is from Armstrong "It's Just Time" essay. http://www.scribd.com/doc/8813084/Martin-A...s-Just-Time-77p
  14. i've been patiently sitting on this one for a couple of weeks. happy to see my patience finally being rewarded. yeehaw.
  15. The article suggests warmer water currents being the culprit. It's really sad that politicians aren't taking this seriously.
  16. opptimistic, have you lost count of your legs? This is just my opinion, which does mean anything if the market decides to do otherwise - but my read is that we're heading for a high of some significance in mid April .....and I'm not sure what the next leg down will look like. My favoured scenario is that we're following a pattern similar to the 1970's - I post my chart from the 1970s to present earlier this week. The next leg down could be a high low - meaning that the 6th of March low was THE low for this bear. Worst case is new lows are still ahead of us......(too depressing to consider the consequences for now- it's the weekend and time to enjoy my children). What do you see - I would like to hear what you and others here are reading from their charts in the intermediate term. At the end of the day, my opinion is just my opinion. It's nice to hear alternative views.
  17. oops - just realised that the SPX hasn't quite made it to 850 .....yet. Give it time.
  18. Hi Blueice Apologies for the delay in responding to your email. By the time I settled my kids last night, I was too darn tired. I've posted previously that I'm expecting the SPX to make it to 940'ish - and I'll stand by that call until the market proves how foolish I am. I've had a fab couple of weeks, but I couldn't resist lightening my stock holdings today - only a small portion at this stage (EB - I couldn't resist the temptation of locking in profits on Macquarie. Probably too soon but the profit was just too sweet to resist). I have a major turn coming in mid April and am currently expecting it to be a significant high - with another down leg to come. I said that if 818 on the SPX was taken out, the race to the top was on. According to my charts, SPX hit daily resistance at 850 and pulled back to hit support on the weekly at 832-33 and did a nice ping-pong bounce up again. Watching the market is just like watching a fine game of tennis at times. Below is my current weekly chart. What happens tonight - no clue. But, I continue to wait to see what mid-April brings (which nicely coincides with Armstrong's turn - but calculated by completely different means). http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss249/jaolsa/chart-5.png
  19. dan, i tried it out for the first time last night and finally got it working after a couple of attempts. there's a button on the toolbar within the dialogue box (just under "replying to index trading") that allows you to insert an image - 2 down from the smiley face. but, i noticed last night that from photobucket, i needed to copy the "link" option rather than the "httm" for it to work. i'm doing this from memory, which is always dangerous....that's roughly how i did it.
  20. perhaps. i still view the spx on a weekly basis to be fairly positive. though, on the daily, i have resistance coming in at about 818. if price can move above that, race is on. next lines of resistance at 832 and then 840ish.
  21. ok - let's try that again. http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss249/jaolsa/y_gspc_price_monthly03mar69_to_2-1.png
  22. EB I'm actually not feeling super bearish. I actually just like his upside target for the spx....probably because it matches my own thoughts. On another site, I've been saying for ages til the point of boredom from repeating myself....one of the moving average grids that I use that gauges long term trends highlights that this bear market is actually more similar to the 1970s than any other (thu, I must admit that my data only goes back to 1928 for djia). If we're following a similar path, we may be close to the end of the bear.....and the low may have been seen in early march.....with another leg down still to come but that may be a higher low. If not, Frank B. may be right - but my bullish nature doesn't really want to consider that option yet. I'll try posting a chart and see if it works.
  23. jaolsa

    YOUTUBE!

    one of my favourite oldies - heard it again on Triple J this morning. Lamb - Gorecki http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtIeH_J-SiI such a gorgeous song.
  24. thought some may be interested in Frank Barbera's latest: Tactical Analysis: Establishing the FLLOC (Part 1) Exploring potential bear market outcomes BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm?321gold
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