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turbo124

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  1. aud/jpy has been a thorn in my side of late - i tried to short it yesterday @ 107 when i thought it was clearly overbought - i got punished and got stopped out as it continued to climb... then this morning i saw it was still strong @ 105 so i decided to short it again - with a 35 pip lee way - i got stopped out again within 5 minutes!!!! decided that third time should do the trick and i placed another short in - this time it paid off.. rode the wave down from 105 to the high 103s before jumping ship.. managed to recoup my losses, and pocket a tidy gain.. Goes to show that timing is everything - even if your conviction are correct!!! Now, with a few hours before the BOE releases its decision on rates - the market has not factored in a cut - and expects rates to go on hold... However i think there is enough data to suggest that there is >50% chance the BOE will cut by 1/4. Cable is a good trade post annoucements - and usually you can ride the wave of sentiment post annoucement with confidence... If they cut rates, i see at least 100pip potential.
  2. there was 99% chance the fed would cut rates - so why anyone would short is interesting.. either way, they got bashed to a pulp after the announcement. i'm trading using 4hr graph's - so i don't pay attention to those random patterns that are outliers to the actual trend. i see aud/usd stabilising around 93 for at least some time yet.. AUD has made stellar gains in the past 2 weeks.
  3. www.forexfactory.com brilliant news feed... combined with bloomberg/cnbc on the tv
  4. eb, play the news that comes out of the US next week.. if the fed drops rates again - then go long AUD. as crowman says, don't try and go against the trend...
  5. In reply to: early birds on Saturday 27/10/07 02:20pm eb, i wouldn't recommend shorting the AUD/USD - all i said was i believe there will be resistance @ 92c I don't see it as a reversal point. However, I believe MACD shows aud is overbought, so may take a little while before next leg up.
  6. looks like aud/usd will find its resistance to hard to break through 92c this next week. i expect it to consolidate before going through 92c when the RBA bumps up rates. there is still some life left in the aud/jpy as well, should go to 106-106.5 next week with little resistance.
  7. gbp/usd hit a new all time high of 2.0457 - i think it has run out of steam, but it may be too early to start shorting it.... may have to wait for an entry point... but in which direction? in other news... CAD housing stats came out waaaaay stronger than i had anticipated - i think we'll be seeing renewed strentch in CAD in the coming days/weeks... i'll have to change my aud/cad long position somewhat to compensate...
  8. in this for the long haul so i'm accumulating slowly ~ $100k parcels until i get to around $1mill total position for aud/cad - i'll then pyramid in more as the equity allows with the rising value. i think audcad will be more stable than aud/usd for this kind of trading plan.
  9. aud looking great.. might start to reaccumulate my aud/cad position and aud/usd positions and see if long holding positions can pay dividends http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif where are you playing at the moment crow?
  10. Crow, Have been reviewing my trading patterns over the past 2 weeks.. a few things disturb me. I did too much daily trading - and not enough holding onto good carry trades. Instead of just modest gains, i could have produced some stellar gains by holding my aud/cad and aud/jpy. I think i'm going to shift my trading to focus on longer term (1 week minimum) trades and just keep my finger on the market pulse for any dire exit signs. We've definitely picked the trends in all the majors over the past couple of weeks, just the timing of our entries haven't been ideal... How has your week panned out?
  11. usd/jpy certainly has gone over (116.20 at time of writing) looking at a 1week / 4hour graph it seems a bullish call.. would pay nice interest too http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif i think a good entry point around these levels.
  12. yep, i think usd/cad long is better than my gbp/jpy short at the moment - as you said, it continues to bounce off than 235.88 line with too much support... now a double doji... could go violent one way or the other...
  13. Crow, i think 236.00 is key resistance that needs to be broken for my short position to work.. i believe it should as the 2 day graph is painting an identical retrace... time will tell - but i think that 236.00 needs to be demoralised within the next hour or two.
  14. Crow, nice call on the loonie - I didn't have the strength to open that position. Have been having a hard time picking trades over the past couple of days... I've been playing the gbp/jpy lately with around 75% success rate. It looks like it is retracing now with a target of around 235.30 - but you must run tight stops on this one as it is incredibly volatile. retrace will be confirmed with strength if it passes through 235.73 sma line.
  15. Hi Crow, nice work on the USD/JPY 60 pips is a great effort. i had a mini victory of sorts last night - saw gbp/jpy hovering at 235.85 and saw upside to 236.50. closed the trade at 236.30 after it flattened out and then went to bed http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif be interesting to watch the indicators over today and tomorrow to give us further direction.
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