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annaliese

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Everything posted by annaliese

  1. annaliese

    NEN

    Hi Groucho. I got a similar response from Neon. It would be understandable for the management of the 3 companies to get together to sort out what can be said and when. It seems like a positive as I can't imagine going to Vietnam if its for a duster...that can be done by phone. Kris Energy has an operations update coming out this Friday so I am guessing Neon and Kris will at least give us a progress report Friday if not something more significant. Mjwk.....how are the brave pills?
  2. annaliese

    NEN

    Yes Mjwk, the chart is not pretty but as we,ve seen numerous times with oilers, the news pending is impossible to calculate regarding timing, so if you like what you see its better to be onboard. I had hoped we would see something on the logs of the top 3 zones by today but it looks like its going to be next week.
  3. annaliese

    NEN

    lol Triage, it has certainly been a long wait and here we are still waiting. They must be very close to logging the first 3 zones.....of course they did not actually say they would report at that point. They may drill ahead and log zones 4 and 5 before saying anything?
  4. annaliese

    NEN

    For those following Neon the next few days should see us reach a significant milestone. Wirelogging has commenced on the first three gas zones of the Cua Lo well in Vietnam. This process could be finished as early as today. Subject to jv protocols an annoucement should follow shortly thereafter. This announcement, if good should be very important as far as adding value to Neon. Pre drill estimates based on 2011 2D seismic are 3.9TCF best case and 13.9TCF high case. Interestingly since those estimates were made 3D seismic has been run which found greater zones at depth. Theses will be drilled once the current wire logs are completed. If the first logs are commercial it is then highly likely the larger deeper zones will also be commercial. One to watch from today on.
  5. annaliese

    NEN

    There should be an announcement out today to say drilling at Block 120 is also underway. Kris Energy, one of the JV partners released the info yesterday. Approx 180MB gross to the jv.
  6. annaliese

    NEN

    Sorry Triage, I meant to comment on possible field size. Here is a cut and paste of something i wrote a week or back on hc. Its meant as a food for thought piece. (ps try TShirt) Regarding Cua Lo we know the pre drill target is 3.9TCF based on 2011 2D seismic. We also know 3D seismic has since been run and found two additional zones at Cua Lo. This addition has never been quantified publically. Reality says the pre drill target ought to be 3.9TCF+++++ Broker targets(unrisked) for Cua Lo ranged from 80cps to 130cps (rounded) on the basis of 3.9TCF. To get an indicative handle on just how much bigger Cua Lo maybe all going well Neon provide some extremely useful diagrams in their 20/5/2013 Block 105 Investor update.(http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130520/pdf/42fzjwjs1brrvt.pdf) In particular slides labelled 'Primary Prospects" and "Hydrocarbon Play" Both slides show Cua Lo relative to the main Dongfang structure which is 3.5TCF. The first slide shows the areal coverage of both and that shows our target to be over twice DF. The second slide shows the depth relativity of DF gas verses the Neon targets. Again this is greater by a factor of two or more. Now these diagrams won't be perfectly to scale and this is an overly simplified approach to assessing volumetrics but it is at least indicative of what could be instore for us as the reservoir(s) is ultimately assessed. Could it be twice as big? could it be four times? Whatever it turns out I bellieve if this is commercial it will trump the pre drill estimate of 3.9TCF by some large margin.
  7. annaliese

    NEN

    Cheers Guys, Good points Triage. Addressing your concerns as I see them (just another opinion at the end of the day) you're quite right about Enis track record. In 2012 they were the most successful exploration company in the world but unlike some commentators claims of 100% success rate that is very far from the truth. Eni has had its misses even in 2012. All we can say about Eni is that it is a very good operator with an above industry success rate. The gas so far discovered is a good sign in that it derisks the well. However at the stage of last reporting the gas that had come to the surface was directly from the open well bore. Effectively this means the gas is co-mingled for the 3 zones drilled through and the top of the fourth zone. Its likely there is some CO2 but until they run tests to determine the characteristics of each gas zone the results while somewhat encouraging are also meaningless at this time. For example, using made up figures the total CO2 might be 50% (unlikely) which would be uncommercial, however further testing might reveal two zones have very high CO2 while the other two are perfect production material. This would effect the gas recoverable but not the fields trigger for commerciality. Typically high levels of CO2 in Vietnam has been quite localised even to the point of being in one zone but not the one above or below. You mention KC's line on expecting gas as a near certainty but the risk being composition of the gas and ability to flow. This is how I see it also. But the mitigating factors are very strong so should not be overlooked but treated with prudent caution. The Chinese are adjacent producing from the Dongfang Field. Contrary to beliefs about the Chinese being very tight on information there is actually quite a bit about on the original DF discovery and its production and the later satellite fields discovered even closer to Neon. Neon has been able to run a number of comparisons of their pre drill data for Cua Lo verses actual DF well and production data. One key element is that DF is achieving very good flow rates. The bigwig petroleum geologists believe both DF and Neons 105 acreage and Cua Lo in particular are sourced from the same hydrocarbon kitchen. This in most cases means the gas is going to be very similar. Neon has one advantage on flow rates in that because they are in fact closer to the kitchen the sands are thought to be coarser where Neon are. This means flow characteristics ought to be better than those already proven at DF. On gas composition DF doe s have CO2 separation equipment on its rig. This is not unusual and would only be there if the CO2 is manageable financially. The gtreater seperation one has to do the greater the cost and the smaller the recovery factor. It is likely Neons gas will have similar characteristics. All that said and done about composition and flow means the pictiure looks very encouraging but until we have confiirmation from the Neon JV we should not count our chickens.
  8. annaliese

    NEN

    Triage I have also spoken to the company and both rigs were evacuated as a precaution. Similar to what happens in the Gulf of Mexico when a hurricane gets too close. I understand teams are back onboard now. Neon is currently getting an update from Eni(operator) so I expect an announcement shortly. We are probably about two weeks from the quarterly report which should provide an update wider than just Vietnam. For all the wait I think Neon are on to something very big with the Cua Lo well so the update when it comes will be welcome.
  9. annaliese

    NEN

    Drilling at Cua Lo was held up about 8 days by a cyclone so we will probably be looking at news perhaps next week. Prior to that we should see drilling at 120 commence. The rig is onsite and pre drill testing prior to handover to the jv so news on this front should be any day now.
  10. annaliese

    NEN

    Yep, A very good day for Neon. It will take the market a little bit of time to work out whats going on but with 3.9TCF + at stake the sp should go up as boxes are ticked on commerciality in the next few weeks.
  11. annaliese

    NEN

    Triage, I think the delays in general are more to do with psychology than anything. The guys that run these junior operations are treasure hunters by nature and tend largely toward optimism. This is reflected in timetable for projects. Anytime a junior picks up elephant acreage there are always (sincere) statements of drilling within two years following a programme of seismic and farming down. The reality is often 12-24 months later for a variety of reasons. (missed weather window for seismic, govt approvals, farm in process etc etc) Even when you get to the sharp end of a drill there are still inherent issues that can absorb dollops of time. Some forseen some not. As a rule with juniors I always add more time to their statements, particularly early on in a project life, less so at the pointy end.
  12. annaliese

    NEN

    Triage, with 5 zones to drill and test I suspect it will be close to Neons two weeks but may be as early as 10 days. Any earlier would be a great bonus but I doubt there would be sufficient time for testing. I would love to know the pre drill expectation for these targets. The known figure of 3.9TCF only applies to the two zones identified by the 2D seismic survey. the 3D identified 3 more zones but they have never been quantified (in the public arena). Are we talking an extra 10%, 50 % , 2X ....who knows but theres upside on what is already a chunky elephant.
  13. annaliese

    NEN

    Mercury if bad news were leaking the sp would tank. The sp started to drop before the drill bit even got to the first payzone. Data security is strictly enforced these days so I strongly doubt any leakage from the rig. Since 07 markets are very very risk averse. I don't see the present stagnation in the sp as anything other than the market being the market. Two weeks from now we will have wirelog results and that will tell whether its the hoped for elephant or otherwise.
  14. annaliese

    NEN

    My thoughts as well Apache. Risk play traders//investors have been missing since the GFC. Hopefully volume returns to that sector, The pre cursor being your grannies bridge club morphs into a share club.......sounds like a myth these days but it used to happen.
  15. annaliese

    NEN

    AGM today so we should get a good all round update on Vietnam, CA and Indo.
  16. annaliese

    NEN

    Ironically Triage the farm-in news for both Indonesia and Paloma is old news, perhaps repeated as part of a current interview but old news all the same. As for value, if Block 120 in particular is successful at the levels the independent resource assessment states then Neon is likely to be multi-billion. Now the drilling is happening it really comes down to probability of success.
  17. annaliese

    NEN

    The seller at 25.5c yesterday seems to have moved up to 26c. Hopefully they run out soon as this is just ready to run. Good to see the Bloomberg item saying Neon is looking to move its Indo acreage forward by seeking a farm-in partner.
  18. annaliese

    NEN

    It looks like Block 105 is now all go. Rig secured with a June expectation for spud.
  19. annaliese

    NEN

    Triage, good questions. On the whole price behaviour model I have found there is no exact science. In theory the price pre spud ought to gracvitate towards broker risked valuations which are in the 68-90cps range. One example I use is Hardman when first drilling at Mauritania. They had two elephant wells planned and drilled within 4-6 weeks of each other. Hardman had bounced around as a 5cps company for quite some time but rallied in the 3-4 months pre spud to around 35cps. Fortunately they had success on the first well and the price went to $1.10 virtually instantly. Between drills they hit a peak of $1.30. Unfortunately the second was no good and the sp dropped to 45cps before recovering. Ultimately it made it to $2.50 about 2.5 years later substantially on the original success. Neons scenario is quite a bit better than the Hrdman story in that HDR was doing true frontier wildcat drilling. Neon is within known oil/gas provinces with a BHP discovery already on their Block 120.. There is some very good project info on Neons website thats worth a read. Also HDR had significant sovereign risk, a low oil price regime back then (20's), and no nearby pipelines or infrastructure. For those reasons I would expect the risk discount on price to be higher for HDR than Neon. But risk stocks have behaved differently since the GFC in that they hav'nt run as hard as in better market conditions. Discovery upside in the case of the oily Block 120 is over $4 on broker calls. Neon is nicely cashed up with $23m in the bank and their producing asset at NSA, which covers overheads, is currently being boosted.
  20. annaliese

    NEN

    Yep, this is just the tip of the iceberg, this will go a lot higher if risked broker forecasts are to be believed.
  21. annaliese

    NEN

    Even better than that Neilo. According to yesterdays quarterly both Vietnam drills are proceeding shortly. Block 105 late June and Block 120 in August. Both are company makers. Now is the time to be getting onboard as theres likely to be a solid price appreciation through to spud date.
  22. For all the markets are back near their high points there still seems to be a lot of risk adversion when it comes to junior oilers and miners. Historically share prices have run on news of rig contracts but more so on the back of an actual spud date. Timing is the other issue, with the drill timeframe still along way off many will be sitting back taking the view that there is plenty of time to take a position. Something like 3-4 months out from the spud date should see the sp on the move for this particular event.
  23. annaliese

    NEN

    Yeah the chart is ugly but I've often found with the juniors that they are so volatile on good or bad news the charts are not that useful as a predictive tool other than when the junior is trending through a period of little or no news and few milestones being achieved. Activity is close to ramping up for Neon so the trend may change soon.
  24. annaliese

    NEN

    Awesome to see you here Groucho. Yep, Neon reminds me a lot of Hardman as well. If it did follow the HDR path then we would have a very happy outcome. The differences between Nen and Hdr are largely in Neons favour so you would think theres a greater chance of Neon succeeding. Unlike HDR where their entire acreage was of a similar nature we have two distinct areas with very different geoogy, both with proven discoveries on them or adjacent. That in itself reduces risk. We also have stacked targets giving us a better chance that at least one zone should be successful. Assuming success other factors like sovereign risk, infrastructure and markets blow Hdr out of the water. Ultimately Hdr went from being a 5c share to $2.50 at a time when the oil price was in the low $20's. Neon with Vietnam success is more likely to be around $4. Unrisked broker valuations on success are up to double this figure.
  25. annaliese

    NEN

    A couple of bits of news. Neon has reinvented its website which looks very good. Generally there is more detail on projects and background information. Critically there is some new information about Block 105 in Vietnam which is still scheduled for mid year.The recently completed 3D seismic has highlighted more hydrocarbon zones underlying what was known from the previous 2D seismic. They are yet to assess this new info in terms of a target resource assessment, but under the 2D scenario the prospective target for "best case" was 3.9BCF ( 13.9BCF "high case"). It now looks like these scenarios will be exceeded. Being stacked zones with direct hydrocarbon indicators the project itself has been further derisked. Note also the drill location has been finalised. Heres what Neon had to say: Netherland Sewell & Associates Inc. (NSAI) completed a Prospective Resource Assessment of Block 105 and confirmed gross unrisked prospective recoverable resources for Cua Lo of 3.9 TCF gas (best estimate) to 13.9 TCF gas (high estimate). NSAI’s assessment was based upon the 2D seismic data that was available at the time, and is based only on two prospective zones. While the areal extent of the prospect remains broadly comparable to that assessed by NSAI, the identification of additional prospective zones from the new 3D seismic volume provides scope for the discovery of additional volumes. The Cua Lo well location has been agreed by the joint venture and will be announced pending final approval by Petrovietnam. The well is expected to be drilled mid 2013
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