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pukin

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  1. pukin

    MPO

    Looks that way V1... very large volume churning through. Seem to be selling themselves a bit short though... 20c = approx US$46.5m. MPO should have at least US$58m in the bank now... plus Texas will be worth something. If you go by the accounts it should be worth at least US$10-$20m... hopefully more but I won't hold my breath. So say US$70m for the company if they can sell Texas. I would then like to see them pay as big a dividend as possible to get any franking credits out, and do a capital return for the balance up to around $US60m. Thats about $64m/AUD at the moment or roughly 25.6c/share back to shareholders. Then keep $10m and Canada gas in there as a penny hopeful Change the name, the ticker and raise capital again down the track if things improve with the moratorium.
  2. pukin

    MPO

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments...CA:PCQ&ww=1 Petrolympic up 276% last night... I am not going to get my hopes up.. and no idea if this acreage is similar to MPO's in Canada but from memory they are in this region with their 1-1.5m odd acres (from memory). More interesting to me is what this article mentions about the government intentions. I believe all the studies on the Shale gas is to be concluded by the end of 2013. End of the day, worst case scenario we have zero downside on Canadian Gas, however there could be a tiny light at the end of the tunnel with Canada for MPO. This is the specific component I am referring to, with the full article following. "This discovery also echoes the new economic policy announced by the Quebec government in October this year, which makes a priority of the demonstration of the hydrocarbon potential of the province and the long-term reduction of its dependence on foreign energy sources, through the drilling of exploratory wells in a context of rejuvenated regulations and the complete respect of the environment and the community." Would be great if they changed their stance on it! http://money.msn.com/business-news/article...amp;id=17114634 TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Nov 15, 2013) - Petrolympic Ltd. ("Petrolympic" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:PCQ) is pleased to announce the discovery of a conventional reservoir of natural gas on its joint venture property in the Lower St. Lawrence area (the "Property") located in the Appalachian Basin of Quebec, which was announced by the Operator, Ressources & Energie Squatex Inc., ("Squatex") in its press release dated November 15, 2013 (see www.sedar.com). The Company holds an interest in 217,370 hectares (536,941 acres) of the Property through a joint venture with Squatex. While carrying a stratigraphic coring program, which Squatex started in 2010 to evaluate the oil and gas potential of its licences, significant gas flows were first encountered at 1,847 meters-deep in the core hole Massé No.1 in the Mitis River area. The cores were collected and analysed from this depth down to the total depth of the well at 1,874 meters, revealing that the reservoir is hosted in the Silurian Sayabec Formation and consists of a 10 meters-thick interval of hydrothermally dolomitized limestone with high porosity and permeability values up to 20.8% and 1624 mD, respectively. An effective seal is provided by the overlying fine-grained rocks of the Saint-Leon Formation. Hydrothermal dolomitization is the generation mechanism of many world-class conventional reservoirs in North America, such as Albion-Scipio in Michigan and Lady-Fern in British Columbia. Contrary to shale gas, these types of reservoirs do not require hydraulic fracturation. The analysis of the gas charge of the reservoir indicates it is composed of 89% methane and devoid from hydrogen sulfide. The Company believes that this clean energy source can be commercialized to close local markets, thus contributing to the economic growth of the region. In the Lower St. Lawrence of Quebec, the Sayabec Formation has been recognized as a prospective unit since the discovery of an analogue outcrop at surface, dolomitized and filled with bitumen, and the discovery of a naturally fractured interval filled with salt water in an exploratory well drilled in 1969. The Company believes that the discovery of a gas reservoir, however, represents a new and very significant mile step in the appraisal of the hydrocarbon potential of the region and Petrolympic is very proud of participating to this endeavour. This discovery also echoes the new economic policy announced by the Quebec government in October this year, which makes a priority of the demonstration of the hydrocarbon potential of the province and the long-term reduction of its dependence on foreign energy sources, through the drilling of exploratory wells in a context of rejuvenated regulations and the complete respect of the environment and the community. Petrolympic and Squatex are currently evaluating options to finance the pursuit of the exploration efforts and determine the full potential of the identified structure
  3. pukin

    MPO

    Very very dissappointing result... Thats 12.5c/GJ for 2P and 5c/GJ for 3P I think the rough values for WCL next door when LNG made their offer was 75c/GJ for 2P and 45c/GJ for 3P. Note that was before the latest reserve increase... but still even that is a long way below previous multiples paid for gas acreage. This price is an absolute joke, they would be better off mothballing it, but then that would just cause more share price pain. That is the only silver lining I suppose... cash should be in the bank if approvals come through, and now the market should have an easier time valuing the share price. Roughly $80-$100m in cash, so we are sitting on only cash value with the market cap as it is.
  4. pukin

    MPO

    WCL has been offered 65c/share in takeover offer... My very quick rough calcs are: That gives WCL MC of $165m. Not a massive follower of WCL, but they are literally right next door to MPO's QLD CSG so VERY RELEVANT to the Mungi sale. Reserves as at the annual report for WCL was 221PJ 2P, and 369.5PJ of 3P. This roughly equates to 75c/GJ for 2P and 45c/GJ for 3P. MPO's QLD reserves are 328PJ 2P and 789PJ 3P. That gives $246m or $355m. Note this doesn't take into account cash in bank of WCL or its production assets... but still.... goes to show that MPO should deliver a good result with the Mungi sale!!! Watch this space. Hope I got these figures right... have only done them quickly!!
  5. pukin

    MPO

    Hey V1... My only thought for why they would push ahead with a sale of Legacy Shares now is that there is an acquisition pending?!? By my sums, we have enough cash for the next 5 months at least.... As at 31 December still had $47m in cash, and expected cash burn of $30.6m this quarter. So I would guess they would have been getting tight by say 30 June, as this Quarter coming has a lot of last quaters accruals in it, and I don't think Q2 is going to have as large a work programme. So I think Q2 will be around $20m cash burn. But QLD asset sale should be completed by then as well... so maybe they have an opportunity lined up that they were going to use QLD asset sale proceeds for, but as it has been delayed, they are using Legacy funds instead. Better that than issuing MPO shares as part of an acquisition.... we would just get diluted badly!!! Fingers crossed we get a good result from that first Wellcamp well in Feb. The focus seems to be really getting sharper on Nth America.... Get rid of QLD Gas assets, sell our Sth Africa production right once awarded to Shell or someone, and then we will be a cashed up takeover target I would say, being a much more streamlined and focussed operation. Looking forward to QLD asset sale, if not for the simple fact that they can restart the buy back! A joke that it has been out of action this long.... what material information could they have for this long that could preclude them from buying back. I would only think advanced negotiations on the sale would be sufficient.... but that doesn't seem to be the case given how long the buyback has been suspended for. Good luck to all holders!!!
  6. pukin

    MPO

    Just having a peruse of the MEL thread on another site and saw that it appears MPO has sold its stake in MEL! Had a look at the trades for yesterday, and sure enough: 3916193 shares sold in S1XT trade @ 56.5c Match that with the most recent top 20 report of MEL... Molopo Energy Ltd 3,916,193 1.16% That is $2,212,649 more into the bank account then. Looks like there might be more play action in the sector then, and also looks as though MPO would know whats afoot with MEL. If they sold at 56.5 when the current price is around 46.5c. LNG has also upped its holding in MEL as well to get back above 5%, after being diluted previously. So looks to me like LNG sees MEL as a supplier... I wonder if they will want MPO's QLD CSG as well.
  7. pukin

    MPO

    Yeah it is taking longer than I expected.... but I think his remark about aiming to make an announcement by end of year is more so that it is consistent with all their remarks about the sale to date. They can't exactly tell Bloomberg something different than what they have announced to date. I think the main indicator of when an announcement will be made is the fact the buy-back is currently suspended. Clearly means the negotiations are at a pointy end..... as to how long this part of the process takes, who knows! I wonder if the "level of interest" is what is holding up the process... competing bids going back and forth?
  8. pukin

    MPO

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/m...-assets-1-.html Molopo Energy Ltd. (MPO), an explorer focusing on oil projects in the U.S. and Canada, said it is “quite a long way down the process†of selling its coal-bed methane assets in Australia’s Queensland state. “We’ve been pleased†with the level of interest in the Queensland natural gas project, Ian Gorman, chief executive officer of the Melbourne-based company, said in a telephone interview today. Molopo aims to make an announcement by the end of the year on its plans for the assets, he said. The Molopo holdings are about 150 kilometers (93 miles) from Gladstone, where BG Group Plc (BG/), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Santos Ltd. (STO) are building plants to liquefy gas from coal deposits for export to Asia. They also are probably the largest gas reserves in Queensland that aren’t already under contract, Gorman said. The Australian explorer earlier this year hired Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) to advise the company on a potential sale of the coal bed methane assets after announcing plans to concentrate on oil projects in North America. Molopo plans to spend about A$40 million through March 2012 on drilling at its Wolfcamp venture in Texas and its Bakken project in Canada, Gorman said. “Oil is something that can be monetized much more quickly and becomes cash flow positive much more quickly,†he said. “So by building the company on the back of oil, we are then positioned to be able to tackle long-term gas projects.†Bow, Eastern Star Arrow Energy Ltd., owned by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and PetroChina Co., agreed last month to acquire Queensland explorer Bow Energy Ltd. for A$535 million ($509 million), gaining resources for a proposed liquefied natural gas venture. That followed a deal in July by Adelaide-based Santos to buy the shares in Eastern Star Gas Ltd. it didn’t already own for A$730 million. “Following the recent moves on Eastern Star and Bow and the renewed push by Shell/PetroChina to progress their LNG project in Queensland, Molopo may succeed in achieving a sale price in excess of†A$62 million, Credit Suisse analysts, including Sandra McCullagh in Sydney, said in a Sept. 15 report. Molopo climbed 1.5 percent to 68.5 cents at the 4:10 p.m. close of Sydney trading, compared with a 0.6 percent drop in the S&P/ASX 200 Index, after the company said it started drilling the first of three planned exploration wells at the Wolfcamp project in Texas. The shares have fallen 35 percent this year.
  9. pukin

    LNC

    Merc They announced estimates of between 25-45 "Litres" per tonne. Not barrels. So at 25 Litres and 180L for the barrel, you get a barrel of oil per 7.2 tonnes. Hope that helps! Cheers Pukin
  10. pukin

    CSG Discussion

    Barra Mitsui is also already Molopo's JV partner in all of MPO's QLD CSG assets.... so if there is a direct sale, Mitsui will have pre-emption rights if someone else tries to buy in. But as the Anglo sale to WCL showed, Mitsui is pretty happy to let someone else in to do the operating part, while still holding a stake in the project, or upscaling their stake in the project. As for LNG.... I think they will need their Chinese partner to stump up the cash if they want to get MPO's reserves. The left field option I have thought of from the start with the MPO sale is a AOE like takeover, where MPO is taken over, acquirer gets Mungi and some cash, while balance of the cash, Legacy shares and North American/ South African Assets spun off in a new listing that will be dual listed in North America. That would I believe get around Mitsui's pre-emption rights and ensure that the acquirer gets to definitely acquire the stake. Anyway time will tell.... the fact MPO's buyback is still suspended also shows that something material has happened in the last couple months in relation to the sale, so it must be getting to the pointy end.
  11. pukin

    MPO

    Only had a very quick look so far, but the following stood out: NTA of $0.98 vs current share price of $0.68. So tangible assets are almost 50% above current share price. In this is QLD assets "carrying value" of $62m. Note this is the "COST" not the price they expect to realise. This would be the value of what they have spent acquiring, exploring and developing. So I am expecting they deliver a much higher figure than that in the sales process. Also this in relation to the buyback: Since 30 May 2011, the company has bought back and cancelled approximately 5.6 million shares for a total cost of $4.3m as part of an ongoing on-market buyback. This buyback has been suspended during the blackout period associated with the finalisation of the company?s annual results, and as foreshadowed earlier, will recommence once the outcome of the current divestment process related to the Queensland assets is known and released to the market. So QLD asset sale has reached a "material" stage, so they aren't allowed to buyback any shares still.
  12. pukin

    MPO

    MPO announcement just out this morning. Very good update imo. Goes to show that management have been doing something. Hopefully they will keep updates like this coming and keep putting runs on the board. Key points: - Drilling has started in Bakken - Will be 6-10 gross well program - Selling Oil again from previous wells following flooding (only 30bpd) - Drilling to start in Texas in early September (2 rigs) - QLD wells ramped up in production again to 2MMScfd, but another pump failure means production has declined after this. They say that site operations are being kept to minimum though in light of sales process underway. - Sale... largest uncontracted 2P position in QLD. - Expressions of interest from number of potential bidders. - Subject to acceptable price, sales process will be finalised by year end. - Sth Africa - Parners finally found to fulfil Black Economic Empowerment requirements. - Sth Africa production right targeted by end of 2011, with gas sales 6-9 months after. Also a very good explanation of when buyback will and won't be operating.
  13. pukin

    MPO

    In case you all missed it, BOW received a takeover from Arrow Energy this morning. $1.48 per share. This gives us another opportunity to compare values for reserves, although with BOW this is a bit hard... because BOW has done a lot of "easy" drilling to get their 3P reserves very high, while they are yet to put runs on the board in terms of production (2P & 1P reserves). But for interests sake: BOW price at $1.48/share = $520.5m On 2P of 238PJ = $2.19/PJ On 3P of 2752PJ = $0.189/PJ For MPO that equals the following, but I wouldn't focus on any single figure. 2P = 328.3PJ x 2.19 = 718.98m (I wouldn't bank on that) 3P = 789PJ x $0.189 = $149m Now the important thing to note with this is that BOW is a completely different stage to MPO in terms of project development. MPO has more 2P. It also has 1P, which I don't think BOW has. But MPO has less 3P, or "probable" reserves. I would hazard a guess that an MPO deal would be higher for 3P, and a lot lower for 2P. Also BOW has some other activities too, so who knows what they have been valued at. But at least this gives a bit more insight to a value for MPO's QLD Acreage. When you combine this with the ESG metrics. BOW Deal again: 2P = 328.3PJ x 2.19 = 718.98m (I wouldn't bank on that) 3P = 789PJ x $0.189 = $149m ESG metrics 2P = 328.3PJ x $0.92/GJ = $302m 3P = 789PJ x $0.50/GJ = $394.50m If you took a LOW ball estimate for MPO at $0.5 GJ/2P and $0.3/GJ/3P You would have 2P 328.3 x $0.60 = $197m 3P 789 x $0.30 = $236.7m So say $200m.... or roughly 80c per share.... and how much of that is currently factored into the share price. Nil.. we are all cash backing. Interesting that STO has made a move, so has Shell/Petro China. That leaves BG group and Origin as LNG players who haven't made a move. Anyway, I know it is extremely frustrating and horrible with the share price where it is, but at current levels, we are valuing MPO at cash only... bit of a no brainer value wise, if you are willing buy in gloom, to hopefully sell in boom. Good luck to all holders Cheers pukin
  14. pukin

    MPO

    Apologies V1!!! Did not realise that was from the chairman.... you are spot on, those words should probably not have been used, as it just sets up false expectations! As for the takeover... I was mainly talking hypothetically, that if an offer was made, it would have to be high enough to garner shareholder support. Personally I think that BOW would be taken out before MPO in the big scheme of things, but the fact that MPO do have the asset with a for sale sign on it may result in takeover offer purely to secure the QLD assets with the cash as a bonus. I have never really considered MPO a takeover target... they have always had too large a spread of assets, both geographically and play wise to attract the attention of anyone really apart from a global diversified energy play (eg shell), but why on earth would large plays like that pay attention to a small market cap company like that.... they would be looking for multi billion dollar acquisitions, not multi million. MPO has started to streamline its projects now however, so who knows. One thing that I have pondered about in relation to the QLD CSG sale is the pre-emption rights of Mitsui. I wonder if someone wants the assets, if they did a takeover of the company would that eliminate any pre-emption rights for Mitsui? That could be a scenario where there is a takeover and spin off of Molopo North America or something of the likes. That is just all my own ponderings on the matter.... In the first wave of CSG takeovers there was normally a few months between drinks. I am not expecting a rush of takeovers... however I would guess that most of the junior players will eventually dissapear in the next 5 years. Finally... article in the AFR today about the ESG sale. There is a small table showing CSG players and valuations using ESG metric: Will type out with Company name, Equivalent value per Eastern Star, Value/Share, Closing Price yesterday. BOW $1370m $3.62 vs $1.05 MEL $1271m $4.24 vs $0.29 MPO $305m $2.50 vs $0.78 WCL $191m $0.76 vs $0.28 There is also ESG and AGL, but not really relevant. I suppose something else you need to take into consideration is the location, quality and progress towards production of a tenement. MPO is definately ahead of all other players in terms of location and progress. Quality.... would have been great to see flow rates from the two final trial wells.... I guess we will never seem them now as work seems to be put on hold.
  15. pukin

    MPO

    V1 As bad as things seem now, I really can't see any takeover succedding on MPO for any less than $1.50, and even then they would be pushing it. We are going through a pretty extended period of negative sentiment, but eventually there will be some widespread positive sentiment and the share price will move accordingly. On ESG... Takover offer around 90c is about 20% below its all time high. Personally I think STO might be getting a steal... but in any case, the value of MPO if the same prices are applied show significant upside. If MPO had a takeover offer of 20% it's all time high, it would be roughly around $1.65. As for the "quick win" and "urgency"... I think that is just a journo trying to put some spin on a story. I think the fact that they have downsized their work program at QLD assets is a clear indication that a sale is imminent. Timing is the only question. The new board might want to set deadlines they can easily meet (unlike the old board, who consistently missed deadlines), so the end of 2011 might be a soft target. I would hazard a guess at a Sept/Oct sale, but it who knows, it could be december 31 2011..... or it could not happen at all. But all indications point to it happening at this stage. The structure of the sale will be the most interesting part.... most likely will be a direct sale like the others.... but wthere is a definate chance of a takeover offer.... simple, has tax advantages if scrip for scrip. Or will they sell the entity that owns the assets and spin off the american assets in a dual listing with the north america, keeping the bulk of the cash, legacy shares and the north american assets. The north american listing is something that is hopefully revisited once the sale process is complete. Just like how we do not value the North American assets (or any assets really for that matter), I don't believe the american companies would fully value our CSG assets, so it is a good path to take by divesting the QLD CSG assets if they intend to do a dual listing. Anyway... we need a couple keen buyers to turn up to generate a bit of momentum, and that might start to snowball then.... don't hold your breath for it though!
  16. pukin

    MPO

    Hi All Hope you have all seen STO takeover of ESG this morning... share price was a bit slow to start with, but looks to be reacting a little now. This gives us an immediate yardstick to compare the current value of the QLD CSG acreage with. STO price paid was $0.50/GJ based on 3P reserves which is what most acquisitions seem to focus on, and by my calcs about $0.92/GJ for 2P reserves. MPO has 789PJ of 3P reserves in QLD CSG = $394.50m Based on 2P reserves instead = 328PJ = $301.76m Take a mid value and you have about $350m. Take say a 20% discount just to be safe, and you have $280m. Now that is worth about $1.15 per share on its own!!! Add in a cash backing of roughly 65c/share and you have assets of $1.80 per share, and that excludes north america oil, north america gas and south africa. No wonder we are all getting so frustrated with the share price! Clear to me though that eventually we will get our pay day, and that topping up at these prices has very little risk, with very high upside. Good luck to all.
  17. pukin

    MPO

    Found this article interesting, have copied part relevant to legacy, as well as the link... looks like a similar story to MPO with all our old board selling out... looks good for a bounce in the Legacy price, and thus the MPO price. http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-nuttal...ue-traps-2011-6 EN: Well, we could walk through some of my top holdings. That's probably the best way to understand my style. TER: Sure. EN: In terms of size, my largest current position is Legacy Oil & Gas Inc. (TSX:LEG). It's a $2 billion-market cap light oil company, and it's a case study of how we try to look at things differently. There was a management change within a major shareholder, Fidelity Investments, and the manager had to blow out 18 million shares. That took the share price from $17.50 down to around $11.50; not for any fundamental reasonâ€â€ÂÂÂÂit was due to fund flow. The stock trades at around $12 today, but I was aggressively buying at around $12.50 and was buying every share I could at around $11.50. When I started buying LEG, I was paying the lowest multiple of price-to-cash flow in its corporate history. and I thought my downside was limited to commodity and market risk. I knew the company had very significant exposure to several emerging plays, including the Spearfish in North Dakota and the Alberta Bakken, which is an emerging tight oil play. So, I paid a very low multiple and got all of the upside free. I could see the stock at $16. So, while a 33% upside from today's level doesn't sound super sexy, it's decent; and I think my downside risk is very low. The company is managed by, in my opinion, one of the best light oil teams in the business, which is comprised of proven value creators; and the balance sheet is very clean. TER: I note the company went from operations cash flow of $26.3M in Q110 all the way up to $43.9M in Q111. Can that kind of growth continue? EN: Yes, I'm looking for more than $300M cash flow in 2012. That would put the company at 6.7x cash flow today, and I think it can grow production by 15%. Legacy's about 80% levered to the price of light oil. It's got all of the different aspects I look for. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-nuttal...6#ixzz1QoYOW9UI
  18. pukin

    MPO

    Just having a flick through a presentation by LNG Ltd, the "5th" LNG project in Gladstone, but potentially one of the earliest that may be built. They look like they are getting the ball rolling, especially with China National Petroleum Corporation's sub HQCEC on board as a 19.9% holder. There problem though is they have no gas supply as yet. If you look at slides 10 and 11, they address this. Looks like they want to take ramp up gas / excess gas from some of the other projects, and from other producers, but are also looking at supply from the other smaller CSG players. Bow tops their list, with Mitsui, Westside and Molopo following, then the rest. Molopo is of course the only one of those with the asset up for sale, so I am sure they are taking a look at it. I would guess that Mitsui may end up being the eventual buyer, but they will probably wait to pre-empt someone elses bid. That is of course unless the bid is above Mitsui's range, or if it brings in a desired JV partner for Mitsui. They seem to be happy to be the back seat partner in these CSG projects. Slide 11 shows what happened to LNG's share price once they lost previous gas supply with AOE. So looking good for MPO's asset sale... I would say all the players would be keen for it, it is in a great location close to pipeline to gladstone, out of prime cropping land zones, and there is a much greater understanding of how to produce from the coals than any other smaller CSG player in the vicinity.
  19. pukin

    MPO

    Posted this elsewhere, but thought it was relevant since V1 brought it up here: I will write this as a dedicated MPO holder, but also a fervent supportor of cropping land being protected. Food security is something that is going to be a major issue in years ahead.... there are many more mouths to feed each an every day, and there is no new cropping land being made! First of all, this legislation is predominantly aimed at open cut mining on prime cropping land, which would permanently ruin the soil. I am not sure how much of an effect it will have on CSG, personally I think there is enough tenements in areas without cropping land for them to need to do CSG there as well. There is a multitude of issues with CSG on cropping land, salinity being one major one in case of leaks, draining the great artesian basin, but one greatly highlighted from the recent floods is erosion. On flood plains in the Dalby area there were gully's washed out over the summer big enough to easily swallow a road train whole... we are talking over 6m wide by 3m high.... there are two issues with this for CSG. How can their infrastructure (pipelines etc) withstand this? And two how will their infrastructure affect future erosion. It is extremely clear from the flood events that any obstacle, be it road, drain, slight gully, or even the direction the crop farmers farm their paddocks have an amazing effect on the erosion caused in a flood event. I know one pipeline that was looking to go through the area has now abandoned plans after seeing the erosion along the proposed pipeline corridor (up to 2m deep where they planned a 75cm deep pipeline). However cropping land only covers approximately 2% of QLD. Most areas that are currently being developed with CSG is not cropping land (ie grazing etc), and the additional infrastructure, roads, and income is welcomed by the landholders. The main thing is that a common sense approach is taken to development in the future. Now for affects for MPO: MPO's tenements are outside the protected areas. If you would like to look at the maps, go to the following website: http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/land/planning/s...ng/mapping.html So the legislation will have no affect on sale process of MPO QLD CSG assets.... if anything it may encourage the LNG Plant Operators to buy MPO's tenements as backup supply, as it is outside the protected area. I know Arrow are getting close to some cropping areas in the Surat Basin.... and farmers are trying to make it as hard as possible for them to get on their land, and they are shooting themselves in the foot by having that well blow out as well.
  20. pukin

    MPO

    First Daily Buyback notice just released. 214,329 shares bought at average of 79.62c I wonder if this will see some shorters start to cover. After the previous buyback that was announced a couple years ago, but never got actually started, I think there was a bit of doubt if this one would commence.... but it is defintely started. Highest price allowed yesterday was 83.78c..... will be a little bit higher today possibly, I think it works off a 5 day average price. Still 24,731,963 shares to be bought!
  21. pukin

    MPO

    Was just having a look through a couple of the recent announcements and found the following from the strategy presentation on 18 April in relation to the high cash balance: "Existing funds required to finance growth over coming 2 years. Share buy-back or special dividend will be considered if: - Reduced 2012 investment plan - Divestment income materially changes the cash balance" I would doubt that 1 month on they would have reduced the 2012 investment plan.... however the flagged sale of the QLD CSG assets looks to be definitely getting more serious. The board obviously feels confident that there is going to be another substantial addition of cash to the bank balance this year, and can afford to commence with a buy back, while still keeping the 2012 investment plan.
  22. pukin

    MPO

    Gjern That is what the article implies, that the sale process is managed by Lazard Carnegie Wylie. It is the first I have heard of it as well. Possibly the sale will happen sooner than we think.... but hopefully after we get some flow rates from thos flood affected trial development wells. Personally I think $100m is too cheap for the QLD CSG assets.... I am hoping that they realise a figure well north of that! But even if it is only $100m, after a sale, then their cash backing would be $1.10-$1.20 per share, with all Nth American assets and Sth Africa excluded from that.... makes the current share price pretty tempting! It will be very interesting to see how this sale process goes!
  23. pukin

    MPO

    Article in the AFR today.... Won't retype it all, but main jist of it is: Molopo's sale of its QLD CSG assets, flagged last month, has attracted expressions of interest and expectation for the Lazard Carnegie Wylie managed process are running at $100m-Plus. The assets.... yada yada ... are about 150km from Gladstone and have been tipped to appeal to four big CSG LNG ventures. Complicating factor is Mitsui's pre-emption rights. Molopo has good track record of fully priced asset sales.
  24. pukin

    MPO

    Gday all Been a very long time since my last post.... have been travelling around Europe for a 4 and a bit months! Was keeping an eye on the action though, and the change in board. Must say I am very happy with the more focussed strategy that we will be taking forward. The following is in the street talk section of the AFR today (typed by me, so apologies for any typos): "The long-awaited second wave of consolidation in Australia's coal seam gas industry could well about to start, with Melbourne-based Molopo Energy potentially at the forefront. Molopo yesterday revealed its Queensland coal seam gas assets would be up for sale under the strategy announced by are the new management seam that ousted the old board earlier this year. That was something of as surprise, given these assets had earlier been flagged as a key part of the new Molopo, and the proposed sale suggests management may already have received an informal apporach or two for the assets. Molopo's Queensland reserves aren't the biggest in the world, and the fact they are held in joint venture with Japan's Mitsui adds a complicating factor, but nevertheless they are tipped to appeal to all four of the big QLD LNG projects." There is a bit more.... but not exactly relevant to MPO. This should help get a bit of excitement back. Sum of Parts as follows: Cash backing of around $160m (net of tax etc) QLD CSG: At industry average 2P 328 x $1.50 = $492m 3P 789 x $0.55 = $433m. Take say 70% of this to discount just to be safe, (don't forget this is closest acreage to Gladstone, so will be pretty sought after), that gives roughly $300m (off the 3P figure). So cash and QLD CSG alone are worth around $460m or based on current 251m shares on issue it gives a share price of $1.83!!!! And that doesn't even take the North American assets into consideration, or South Africa. 100% upside possible here... ridiculous. Will be good once we finally have the rain turned off and get some flow rates from the final 2 trial wells as well... that could really add some value and temptation to the LNG players. One thing with the floods is that the LNG players may have realised now that they will need to have a geographical spread of gas supply in case of extraordinary circumstances. Anyway, excited to be back, I think things are starting to really look up for MPO!
  25. pukin

    MPO

    Great post FinC!!!! Great contribution to this thread. TSX listing by year end would definitely help the share price out. You would think we would have to hear something very soon about this if they are to have it actually listed by the end of the year... there is only 2 and half months left until then.
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