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Enumerate

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Everything posted by Enumerate

  1. Enumerate

    BLT

    If this is what you believe ... sell your BLT and spend more time posting on the GEN thread. I think it has been quite clear for some time that if you are interested in GEN you are not interesting in RNAi - something to do with cows ... I believe. I am sure that Aki can add some value to this new venture ... or maybe that is only if it involves goats, Judas goats.
  2. Enumerate

    BLT

    I'd like to draw your attention to a post on Hotcopper: What a clever fellow this "Dank" is ... Greg Hannon has been making alot of progress in bring shRNA technology to the front and centre of drug development: But is looks like this new shiny technology needs a "foundation" technology license ...
  3. Enumerate

    BLT

    Genzyme is a classic biotech. They started life creating orphan drugs for metabolic disease. The fact than Sanofi has made this purchase is significant in two ways: 1) it makes a break from the "top line" revenue consolidation of BigPharma; and 2) it signals renewed M&A activity, by BigPharma, for pipeline biotech. What we need for a BLT transaction is a restored, active, M&A environment - the Genzyme deal signals "spring time for M&A". Rekindling RNAi interest is the second element - and I am much heartened by Dirk's recent blog on the Silence solid tumour compound. It is only a matter of time before BigPharma's oligoneuronal attitude to oligonucleotide drugs - changes.
  4. Enumerate

    BLT

    Gentlemen, start your engines ... http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/02/16/deal...han-20-billion/
  5. Enumerate

    BLT

    Just for entertainment value and certainly not as investment advice ... I believe that the Benitec position as an RNAi platform company has just been cemented with the allowance of the Graham '099. (Worth 20-30% of the global RNAi market, at least) I believe that RNAi will come back into fashion as it becomes obvious to even big pharma that the tool used to discover new druggable biochemical pathways can actually become the drug (this is especially true of ddRNA - the preeminent RNAi discovery technology). I believe that Benitec will transact as the mechanism to unlock the value in the IP portfolio. However, this could be done in phases. I believe that the HIV lymphoma and T-cell "discovery program" will be outsourced to a partner to extinguish the La Jolla convertible note obligations. I believe that Pfizer could be tempted to transact to extinguish the license/royalty payments for the HCV programme being conducted by Tacere I believe there are others who would transact to lock in the foundation RNAi technology. Clearly, I enjoy a rich fantasy life ... or ... have a profound insight into the development of the RNAi technology market.
  6. Enumerate

    BLT

    Thanks for looking, but the patent application I was looking for was what became the Genesis single strand delivery technology. The basic idea is that you take a double strand oligo (RNA or DNA) and convert to single strands. You then bind some conjugation protein to each single strand, which stabilises the molecules and promotes delivery across the cell membrane. Inside the cell the conjugation proteins are stripped away and the molecules "annealed" - whatever that means. (I think it might mean that the double strand oligo is then reconstituted but there are enzymes that can be triggered to populate a single strand with the complementary base pairs). Anyway, it is possibly only of historical interest now. I believe that Plastic has an interest in this technology - it is not something that I am actively investigating - though I always have an open mind to new information.
  7. Enumerate

    BLT

    At a point in time I imagined that Genesis had the Watson RNAi conjugation delivery technology patented. At this time, I never found a formal reference to it at the USPO. I am sure it exists, because they say it exists: http://www.genesis.co.nz/Research++Development/ssRNAi.html I must admit, I do not know what "anneal intra-cellulary and then initiate RNAi" means. Sounds quite exciting, though! I have no idea if Dirk is onto this technology. Maybe he read the same public web page.
  8. Phylogica directors promised three deals by year end - we have three deals by year end. The latest deal is groundbreaking in that we have not heard of the deployment of phylomers in the vaccine space. We have yet to hear of the Roche second phase of the very promising intracellular work. The CD-40 ligand inflammation compound also needs a home. Woolfe is promising three more new discovery partnerships, next year. Given the prospects and the credibility gained in delivering what they promise ... I would expect that next year will be very exciting for shareholders. While some will trade Phylogica, based on it's prospects and likely positive news flow - my view is that this is a strong buy and hold into the long term.
  9. Enumerate

    BLT

    Any Aussie discovery biotech that has prospects for a major licensing deal will do very well in the medium term. BLT.ASX and PYC.ASX are my top two picks, at the moment. Both stocks are well worth detailed investigation. Both have the potential to due huge licensing deals.
  10. Enumerate

    BLT

    I used to be an Oxford Biomedica shareholder. Their Lentivector technology is important as an RNAi delivery technology. However, the company is a classical "biotech" rather than a new generation "bio-engineering" company. Hence, they failed to emphasize RNAi technologies. Their flagship oncology compound, Trovax (or something like that), failed. A capable company - let down by a lack of vision at the senior management level.
  11. Enumerate

    BLT

    Lol, we are in the wrong business. There seems to be a thriving "cottage industry" involved with attacking and defending the Graham '099 and derivatives at the patent office. This action, in the UK, is not a good reason to sell Buda. The Graham '099 (and the wider CSIRO/Benitec familiy) are the most cohesive RNAi patent estate. The industry is finally dawning on the fact that, commercially and technically, ddRNA should be as significant in therapy as it is in research. The only limiting factor (apart from company finances) is the fact that interest in RNAi has "gone off the boil". This "boom and bust" mentality is common in technology - trace Apple Computer's fortunes , for example. This interest (and associated money) will return.
  12. Enumerate

    BLT

    I seems as if Benitec now has a future ... well done holders. If we had this announcement back in early 2008 - the shareprice would now be over 50cents - possibly testing $1. However, in 2010 - even great news is barely good tidings for a cash strapped biotech. Look at Novartis passing on Alnylam trigger IP for $100m. The US$1.1b Merck paid for Sirna is but a distant memory of better days. A Benitec capital raising is inevitable. Formally, the company is insolvent and reliant on the La Jolla convertable note to pay the bills. This albatross remains and will dampen any resurgence in the shareprice. I'd like to think that some kind of transaction is near - but in the current investment climate the chances of this happening are practically zero. Everything is now in place - delayed by 2-3 years
  13. Story about the deal is out on the news wires: US$1.5m in up front payments (half on signing, half after milestones) MedImmune is the Biotech arm of AstraZeneca.
  14. Enumerate

    BLT

    Appendix 3B out. The Jolly Rogers have their shares at 2.4cents ... I wonder if they will hold, awaiting positive developments in the patent reexamination?
  15. Enumerate

    BLT

    The '697 patent is like patenting a general chemistry process. It allows CSIRO/Benitec to create DNA structures, in a "hairpin" configuration, that can be used to create RNA. Owning the patent is very useful if you want to do stuff with RNA chemistry ... but it does not provide any primary intellectual property in creating a therapeutic process. (Creating therapies, in humans/animals/plants, is where the money is). With the '697, you could, for example, encode siRNA that tackles some disease state. You would be using hairpin DNA to deliver siRNA. You would still need a license for Fire '599 to deliver the therapeutic benefit - because, in siRNA terms, Fire '599 is primary intellectual property for the therapeutic delivery of siRNA (ok, I am simplifying things - there is Tuschl etc that complicate the ownership of the synthetic RNAi space ... we can ignore these deeper issues, for the moment). Now, let's see the significance of the Graham '099. If you had Graham '697 and Graham '099 you would not only have the chemistry patent to ultimately deliver siRNA into the cell (using DNA Directed RNA, or Expressed RNA), but you would also have the right to deliver therapeutic benefit, due to silencing genes, using a type of siRNA not covered by the Fire '599 patent. You would have complete "freedom to operate" using this technology - this is a very commercially valuable position to be in. But wait ... there is more. Fire '599 was developed using experiments in nematodes (worms). These organisms were well known in biology for their ease in allowing the introduction of trans-genes, as an experimental platform. At the time, there was no reasonable scientific position to suggest that RNAi (Fire and Mello) would work in complex animal cells. However, Graham in the '099 patent, claims the first evidence of the siRNA mechanism in animal cells. This is big news - because Graham '099 is claiming therapeutic application of siRNA, in a specific configuration, in plant and animal cells BEFORE and INDEPENDENT of Fire and Mello. (Fire and Mello can have the therapeutic application in worms ... Graham wants plants, other animals, humans ...). The full enjoyment of the claims in the last two paragraphs is what CSIRO/Benitec are fighting for, on appeal, in the US Patent Office. They already have these rights in some countries. The significance of gaining the full claims of Graham '099 cannot be underestimated ... The RNAi world would exist in two separate camps ... Benitec would have exclusive rights to deployment of a type of RNAi technology, for therapeutic benefit, that would likely be somewhere between 20% to 50% of the RNAi market. Very tasty. (Ok, ok ... I have grossly simplified and glossed over some detail ... but this should put everyone on the thread on the same page ... and capable of sorting out the commercial wheat from the chaff).
  16. Enumerate

    BLT

    This is for patent number 7754697. It is a hairpin patent - an important piece of the ddRNA delivery process. The '099 is freedom to operate in the foundation RNAi space. This is the main prize .. yet to be decided.
  17. Enumerate

    BLT

    As soon as La Jolla can no longer convert the note to shares at a price of less than 4cents ... I will be back in BLT. The clear path forward for Benitec is a transaction. The CSIRO deal, in overturning the licensing agreement that was a "poison pill" to a purchaser, was an important stepping stone. The final piece, the Graham '099, will be the last hurdle. The therapeutic initiatives are now of minor significance - they have proved the key point of effectiveness of the technology, in pre-clinical. Key examples are: 1) Benitec lacks the financial and scientific resources to take the HIV stem cell and T-cell developments to any kind of therapeutic resolution. However the fact that the CoH pilot has gone so well should spotlight ddRNA as a foundation technology for future RNAi therapeutics. 2) The Benitec HCV (and HBV) technology is licensed to Tacere who have satisfied Pfizer that there is merit in the approach. (Notwithstanding the incompetence of Benitec's US based CEO and advisers in protecting Benitec commercial interests). 3) In the reagent space, Sigma Aldrich and Promega have created very successful research and development frameworks based on ddRNA. The key point here is that each of these initiatives already count as major and significant developments in the RNAi technology space. In the RNAi "top ten" achievements - they might actually be the top 3!! Everything is primed for the deal ... except the foundation IP. The new directors are off spending money on therapeutic development as if this is the key the companies success. They are using expensive La Jolla money to prove a point that has already been proven. Of more concern, the pursuit of lung cancer and T-cell therapeutics stand as vast future cash liabilities that Benitec will never be able to afford to complete. It is this lack of strategic focus and insight that has lead us to this awful deal with La Jolla. These fools cannot even see that the tactics of the La Jolla deal will only lead to massive dilution for existing shareholders. The only hope is Bremner. He will get rid of these idiots and clear the decks for a deal. He has to, he has too much at stake. The issue for the rest of us remains one of timing. I do not want to take the hit as the current shareprice is driven down to 0.3cents by wave after wave of La Jolla conversion and sale. If I had infinite amounts of money and wanted to guarantee I was long in Benitec when the transaction is made ... I would simply buy on market to defend my position from dilution. However, I do not have infinite amounts of money and cannot afford to sustain seeing my investment cut to 10% of it's current value by La Jolla's dubious methods of financing. It is a tough call. I would still be in if SM was still in control. There are huge risks in being out of a stock I want be long on. At least everyone on the thread knows the facts and knows how I am interpreting them. Everyone has to arrive at their own conclusions by their own methods.
  18. Enumerate

    BLT

    If you want to see the future, lookup: Redbank Copper RCP.ASX India Resources IRL.ASX Intec INL.ASX All are La Jolla customers. All three explain why La Jolla has no customer testimonials on their web site. It seems the principle value La Jolla bring to a share is that of making the stock easier to buy ... by making it massively cheaper and massively increasing the number on issue. I have taken most of my BLT.ASX capital and moved to Phylogica PYC.ASX. A La Jolla free zone ... I still think BLT has impressive IP and positive clinical prospects. Its just the La Jolla presence that makes the stock impossible to own profitably.
  19. Enumerate

    BLT

    We've had the fireworks ... must be time for an Appendix 3B filing soon.
  20. Enumerate

    BLT

    We'll see after a couple of rounds of La Jolla selling down their conversions whether this is simply "expensive finance" or "disastrous pillaging of the register". I think the company has some very strong IP and some very valuable therapeutic initiatives. I think the value will become apparent, over time. My key problem is that the ordinary shares are now unownable because of the La Jolla capital note overhang. We will have to put aside rational valuation of Benitec until some alternative source of funding is found to replace the usary of the La Jolla Convertible Notes. There we go ... you are all capable of forming your own opinions based on the available facts ...
  21. Enumerate

    BLT

    The best source of capital would be from existing shareholders. Why give the Jolly Boys a 25% return, per month, to pillage the share register? The people who will be paying the price are the existing shareholders who will buy to defend their increasingly diluted interest in the company. Even if money could be found to pay back La Jolla - they can demand a 120% return from every dollar they attempt to convert below the 4cent "floor". Given BLT are committed to to the T-cell programme - in practice, there is no floor price. This simple fact was not communicated in the original announcement of the convertible note deal. I like the science and intellectual property owned by Benitec - but the shares (and now options due to the inevitable share consolidation) have become "unownable" due to La Jolla. If you live in a skyscraper and someone takes out all the floors - the forces of gravity will drive predictable negative consequences ...
  22. Enumerate

    BLT

    The key fact is that the Jolly Boys do not care what damage they do to the register - they will "loan", "convert" and "trade" as fast as they can at any price. The fact that they can cherry pick the VWAP level - get their 20% discount (conversely, make a 25% gain when they sell the converted stock) means they will always make money (300% on an annualised basis - if they loan/convert/trade within a month). This means either a slow or fast ratchet down in the price of the shares. Then there will be pressure to do a share consolidation when the price is at a fraction of a cent. Rinse and repeat. The DMR "independent valuation" - pages 32 to 35 of the notice of meeting - is breath taking in its incompetence. The nature of the La Jolla deal violates so many assumptions of the Black-Scholes model that only an incompetent would apply this model to the valuation of this deal. When you further note the small price variation assumption and compare this with the cynical large price drops that can engineer La Jolla profits - the model and the valuation become the stuff of fantasy. I only hope that Dr Bremner puts a bullet into this insanity at the AGM. I would like to repeat that the fundamental and scientific value of Benitec is a completely different question. The real cost of the capital the Jolly Boys are deploying is about 300% pa - the amount of the capital is about US$250k, not $6million; as the rinse and repeat cycle of loan/convert/sell (at any price - the cherry picked VWAP guarantees the profit) minimises capital exposure (and hence risk). I seriously ask holders to consider this devastating deal ... and take some form of action to protect themselves and/or the company. If you are reading this, Dr Bremner, please review this development carefully.
  23. Enumerate

    BLT

    The Jolly Boys at La Jolla have converted their first round of shares. Appendix 3B has been filed. The shock news is that the issue price is 2.8cents! I thought they had a floor price of 4cents. There must be some fine print associated with this "floor". This spells BAD NEWS for holders. Look at INL.ASX and see the effect the Jolly Boys are having on the shareprice. My only question is: will there be a single 1:10 or 2 x 1:10 share consolidations in Benitec's future?
  24. Enumerate

    SDV - SCIDEV LTD

    Yes, it does ... it puts the issue of how the options are dealt with off the list. Thank you.
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