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kiril

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  1. Great posts K1 and Mags...thanks for sharing. I know I said it earlier but Mags you are spot on: "capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell".....it just doesn't work. System is broke. And like Mags points out, a lot of people who know nothing about stocks will make a fortune and many smart people who see every indicator saying sell and sit on the side line will end up losing money or at least the opportunity cost will be huge of earning cash rates in perpetuity. So what is one to do? Kiril
  2. Whilst the markets and the economy should absolutely take their medicine, the Fed will not allow it. And there is something wrong about this whole situation, but as Howard Marks below says...."capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell". Who is brave enough to bet against the Fed? I particularly like this summary from Memos from Howard Marks of OaktreeCapital below, Most of us believe in the free-market system as the best allocator of resources. Now it seems the government is happy to step in and take the place of private actors. We have a buyer and lender of last resort, cushioning pain but taking over the role of the free market. When people get the feeling that the government will protect them from unpleasant financial consequences of their actions, it’s called “moral hazard.†People and institutions are protected from pain, but bad lessons are learned. A company uses its cash and perhaps borrows more to repurchase its shares. A corporate acquiror chooses to use more leverage rather than less. Or the organizer of a REIT or CLO takes on more debt in order to amplify its returns. In each case, the chosen tactic will magnify profits if things go well, but it’ll also magnify losses if things go poorly and reduce the probability of surviving tough times. If these parties get to enjoy the fruits of their actions when they’re successful but are protected from loss when they fail, risk-taking is encouraged and risk aversion is suppressed. There’s an old saying – variously attributed – to the effect that “capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell.†It appeals to me strongly. Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear of loss. It shouldn’t be the role of the Fed or the government to eradicate it. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
  3. I spoke to Gary the chairman yesterday. The offer for the businesses at 10 times earnings was too big to not accept. Sad really as they had first mover advantage in a high growth market and stuffed it. Thats the market. Kiril. I hold.
  4. My pleasure Nipper. Solid buying all week. We have some really interesting new investors join you in the last week. Hold onto your shares. Kiril. I hold
  5. Its a very cottage offering in the listed cyber space on the ASX. I have spent many hours getting familiar with the business models of each of the stocks you have listed there, and understanding their P&L and Balance sheet. I agree AR9 has done exceptionally well and whilst $40m is not a lofty market cap, I simply can't see how they get to a meaningful EBIT number any time soon. Then you have Geoff Lord over at TNT who has done a terrific job talking up their share price and again, paying $100m today for $17K in EBIT I simply will not do. Will they get there, sure they might...but I cant bring myself to value these on run rate revenue. A well known investor who I respect greatly once told me to not listen to the management, but let the P&L do all the talking. I think VOR's number have certainly started to talk, but sadly no one has heard it. I am told we have just hired a PR/IR person, and that a broker report will be out shortly as well. So am expecting to see some additional institutional investors join our register. Gregg from Bombora is from this space and he is doing a great job driving the agenda...which will certainly see in increase in the shareprice from here. Kiril. I hold.
  6. Hey Nipper, thanks for joining in. Some great results coming out of this little gem. Cyber is very much at the start of a very long bull market in my opinion. We are making growing profits with no debt. I have met most of the board and am in regular contact with Jeff, Gary and Gregg. I am of the view that this is just the start of a very large re-rate. I couldnt' help myself and added 10% to my position last week. Kiril. I hold
  7. Well it seems this site has been abandoned and is running un-manned. Lets continue on the TSN discussion where I talk to myself and no one else contributes. Lets kick it off by saying the performance of VOR these last few weeks is nothing short of outstanding. Cyber is definitely in the spot light right now and we are centre stage. Looks like definite accumulation this last week to me. I will get a top 100 list in a few days and see who our buyer has been. On wards and upwards. Kiril I hold
  8. Can this stock code please be udated to VOR?
  9. Agreed, come back Mark...lets get your views of this situation please. Kiril
  10. kiril

    Gold

    Hi guys, thanks very much to you both. Happy 2020. Kiril
  11. kiril

    Gold

    Hi guys. I am looking to find either a high quality managed fund investing in gold producers/explores or an index fund for this, either listed or not. i would expect a fund made up quality gold producers would have a dividend payment as well...but finding it hard to find any quality ways to get exposure. There is XGD, but cant seem to find any reasonable income coming from this index. Any thoughts or ideas would be greatly appreciated. THanks Kiril.
  12. However looks like our new stock code VOR is still attached to a now dead mining interest. Will need moderators to wave their wand. Nice to see other like this business and not just me. Welcome aboard to Regal and Bombora. Kiril. I hold
  13. I know its just me...but somehow in my crazy head it just feels better if I type something here to document and update where TSN is at...even though it is only me here reading my own words. Strange but true. Well TSN finally feels like it has transformed. From an ugly worm...with years of promises of better outcomes, resulting in substantial tax losses.... to a brand new business in the high growth segments of Cyber Security and Cloud migration. Having met with Jeff and Gary a number of times, and having spoken to them regularly over these last 3 years I cant help but feel a high degree of confidence that they have actually delivered on what they set out to do. The 4C is designed as a way for shareholders of small non profitable companies to recieve regular reporting of cashflow/earnings from companies that dont have large instititional shareholders keeping the management team honest. Well for anyone who has been reading the last 12 months worth of 4C reports, they will have seen the massive turn around in this companys fortunes. As we sit at 1c and a market cap of $24m, it is evident for anyone who is bothered to look that the shareprice could easily jump to 2 or 3 cents and potentially still look somewhat undervalued. Looking forward to this next 4C, so that others can join my party...afterall, it is very lonely here by myself. Kiril. I hold
  14. Gee where have you been? 2 years ago we were to buy the 75% balance in TSI from CX partners but they would not agree to our price. Gary the then CEO brought in Jeff to set a new strategy and path forward for the business. We purchased a Cyber Security business known as Decipher works. We have more recently bought CloudTen and AWS Cloud partner. Both these businesses have very high synergies. We are in the process of selling the TSI business together with CX partners. Both those different holdings are cashflow positive and making profits. I had previously introduced fundies to the TSI opportunity and none would buy into an entity that had a minor shareholding in the TSI venture. This has since changed and I know that Jeff has met face to face with a number of these funds and I know the dialogue has continued. I am genuinely hopeful that the buying of the last 3 trading days was institutional, but at this stage I am not sure. I have increased my position last week. End of long story. Kiril. I hold.
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