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jarm

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Everything posted by jarm

  1. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: king louie on Monday 08/08/05 04:08pm More likely to be another large holder attempting to shake out the loose holders. The pattern suggests they are selling down their own holdings (to themselves in the main) in order to increase their overall position. Loose holders (particularly those interested in selling at the 70c level) who fall for that old trick probably deserve the treatment.
  2. jarm

    AAH

    Has the buyback ceased? If so does this indicate M&A activity is back on the agenda (if it ever departed?). A small sentiment shift, combined with the departure of a persistent seller, could see the stock valuation returning to more realistic levels in the next month closer to $2. I still feel the stock is heavily undervalued (even at $2).
  3. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: dnatron on Tuesday 26/07/05 04:56pm For those concerned about rival technologies just remember that TXT is as big as they come. Microsoft has rivals but so what? TZL will have long departed these shores in the short-medium term let alone several years down the track when any putative rival technology can challenge them. Meanwhile the sp is recovering on thinnish trade with holders reticent to lose any of their increasingly valuable holdings. I expect the price to be a small multiple of the current valuation by years end so will definitely be holding.
  4. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    Further recognition obtained from NASA. When will the local market as a whole catch up with the news that this company has serious and realised potential? I guarantee we will lose it through that lack of recognition (and no doubt pay a premium on the resultant imports of their technology - free trade or no free trade). Seriously depressing!
  5. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: theadder on Wednesday 20/07/05 10:06am Just got the call about the Biosceptre/PTD/Domantis ann. They don't make these sorts of commitments lightly so the target must be reliable in all their bench work. Good news for cancer sufferers (and no doubt all us long-term holders).
  6. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    This fledgling is about to leave the nest. I wager that none of the escrow shares are sold next month unless the price has more than doubled.
  7. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: AgentCooper on Sunday 17/07/05 03:25pm I agree, my wording was imprecise - I meant to indicate my belief that the technological applications would be worth billions - and I do not resile from that. However, as I intimated, but with insufficient clarity, I do not believe TZL will even be around in 5 years, at least in Australia. Whether others supplant or replace them in that time is not discernible but at the current time I feel they are well placed, especially given the strong support of Textron. I think the position will become much clearer in the next few months.
  8. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: lancelots on Saturday 16/07/05 05:05pm I still like the miners after 40 years trading but TZL and other similar high tech outfits are a cut above. In reply to utb/dnatron, I expressed doubts that TZL would remain listed on the ASX. Fundamentally, why would they bother when almost all their business is offshore and the returns from a NASDAQ float would be closer to a sensible valuation (ie several fold higher than the current price). So either they will be taken out by a company or group of companies who can see the immediate upside - this technology will be worth untold billions within 5 years in automotive, computing, aerospace as well as more mundane applications - or else they ally themselves with Textron (and others) as a protector/s and then delist from the ASX. I guess that we would be offered an underwritten price for our holdings in the latter event or as dnatron says offered a proportional NASDAQ parcel. Either way it is hard to see them being around at 50 cents in a year or even 6 months at the rate the new deals are occurring. Mind you I have been known to be surprised in the past! Perhaps not with this one though.
  9. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: lancelots on Friday 15/07/05 02:25pm You will find this and other small companies with good stories to tell slipping under the radar in Australia. Perhaps the application is simply too large to grasp. Textron and other likely mega-companies utilizing the technology will absorb TZL entirely, remembering anti-monopoly laws will limit individual shares. I doubt whether the company will even stay in Australia since 99% of its business will be offshore. We will see a shift to the NASDAQ in months quite likely and probably a delisting here. Any market that does not recognize the obvious potential of this company does not deserve it!
  10. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: bloodclot on Friday 24/06/05 05:55pm To Bloodclot, Adder and others Sorry, I am often away these days. The reports have stated that the target is found on more than 80% (or even 95% in some reports) of all cancer types. This indicates that coverage is several-fold more extensive than any other target. It does not indicate that only 80% of cancer cells in an individual tumour are targeted - that would presumably be useless. On the contrary, a target that covers more than a single clone in an individual patient will be fantastic news as many patients suffer from the growth of several different clones (ie the tumour is undifferentiated) and thus the (usually ineffective) treatment is the old sledgehammer approach of chemotherapy/radiotherapy following surgery where indicated. It is still not clear what the precise target is from the announcements. It may be p2x7 but I cannot find a clear statement - in fact they specifically refused to say when asked. The patents appear to cover all sorts of receptors but some papers indicate it might be p2x7. Publications appear to have receded so they are obviously deliberately keeping quiet. This alone should indicate that they are not into spruiking. I agree BC that an announcement that they are making an imaging molecule (maybe dAb as you say) will be BIG. The potential market for a workable in vivo diagnostic that picks up primary and secondary tumours from different organs would have to worth many $billions pa. Let alone therapeutic applications. Good to see verifications of the original claims are now being released. This appears too big for the market to see. Look at the size of the recently approved cancer immunotherapeutics like Herceptin. It is currently being trialled in a couple of other indications besides breast cancer, is already a $billion and growing and only works on a small percentage of breast cancers. Any drug that even works on all breast cancers would be worth ten times more and any drug that targets a broad spectrum of other cancer types (bowel, breast, lung and so on) would be ten times larger again. Add your own figures with all the appropriate discounts. Even very conservative estimates and probabilities of success (constantly increasing) lead to very large income numbers. Is this just too big for the market to comprehend?
  11. jarm

    KIM

    May not be much holding the stock back from the $1.60s again. Fundamentals improved since these prices last visited and resistance at $1.15-1.18 looks broken. Wonder whether AMP is acting for someone and whether the interest may increase towards 15% in anticipation of an offer in the next 6 months.
  12. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: Oavde on Saturday 21/05/05 11:40am I have a medium-long term hold on PTD and am happy for the chance to acquire while squaring away surplus under-performers at the end of FY. I have no illusions that anything I say in support of the stock will influence the SP as the last year or so will attest! Whether the SP rises back to $2 is irrelevant to me as I am expecting several-fold more in the medium term and thus am not about to trade. Obviously others like to play the volatility, as I do in many other stocks, but I think PTD is safer in the hands of the true believers. The potential of the projects gives it special status in my opinion and thus I treat it with a certain reverence that is entirely lacking from all other hard-headed decisions I make about holding or selling. About a third of us will die from diseases that may be alleviated if the promise is realised and the remainder of us will be personally affected. That kind of focusses my mind. It is not as if its another miner or bank or widget maker. The output actually matters. Imagine being on the ground floor with a stock that makes a potential mega-difference. I have been reading back through some of the (hundreds) of postings made over the last several weeks. Some investors had been margin-lending it appears. I never do this with a biotech and really the company is well served by the replacement of these investors if it removes short-term pressure to announce interim results. I can't see any reason for the decline other than herd effects, although I too have been guilty of impatience at times in wanting such results released. If people lose on that basis I'm sorry for them but it just translates into more opportunities for the true believers. I should also add that the molecules in question here can take years to actually manufacture. It appears that this lengthy process is complete in all or most of their primary projects. Testing is likely to take less time than tweaking molecular design parameters so major milestones that markets await may not be far off. Remember that most of the drugs have the same format so most of the FDA approval protocols are fast-tracked now. It is only the target site that needs approval and so this process means you save up to 5 years in comparison with the approval times needed for a small molecule drug.
  13. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: theadder on Friday 20/05/05 07:46pm Hello Adder, I've been away for 6 weeks and found chaos reigns once again. I know the biotech sector has taken a bath but the current price is laughable. I shall be transferring underperforming assets in other sectors into Peptech next week at these attractive prices I never thought I'd see again. The CAT details are an interesting illustration of the royalty stacking applying to mAbs. CAT has charged 5% of sales, from which they pass on 3%. There may well be other payments of 2-4% payable by Abbott to other parties holding mAb IP as well as PTD with TNF IP. This shows the clear advantage of PTD's relationship with Domantis. Not only do they hold 36%, leading eventually to a one-third discount on royalties due on their drugs, but the royalty stacking will be significantly less, if not zero. So the deals they are able to sign with Domantis will cost them much less than Abbott were charged with CAT, perhaps only 4-5% of sales. This translates into double the income using dAbs rather than mAbs. They have 4 production slots guaranteed to them, one of which has already produced a TNF dAb entering clinical trials. The pre-trial results have already been announced showing clear superiority over Remicade and Humira in the standard industry models used as the arbiter of efficacy. This will fast track approval by the FDA and we will probably see Phase II completion in as little as 2 years followed by licensing to a (not Abbott/J&J) Pharma. By 2010 when the other patents run out the new drug will be ready and any significant superiority, say 20%, over existing drugs will result in rapid replacement. It appears that the new dAb is significantly better than this as it more efficiently sequesters TNF in circulation, being smaller or with better binding characteristics than the existing mAbs. Income should then increase perhaps 4-fold from existing royalty rate. Hopefully well before then the share of the other dozen or more Domantis targets will yield significant returns as they are licensed out for Phase II/III. That is assuming PTD and/or Domantis have not been taken out by a large Pharma. The Biosceptre projects are what attracted me to PTD in the first instance. A common target to even two or three major cancers will generate a phenomenal blockbuster. They still maintain almost ubiquitous coverage, the last I heard a couple of months ago. Trial results should start filtering out soon. If the detection rate is really high in tissue then we should have confidence that a drug will follow that will work. Income will exceed TNF by a long chalk. Just look at how much Herceptin brings in already for a sub-category of breast cancer. And this is their own drug remember so royalty rates are likely to be 10% not 1-2%. Even if they only matched the Herceptin income they would be worth over $100 million pa to each party in the JV. I've long since given up trying to predict markets, hence my spread over so many sectors, but this PTD price will soon enough be regarded as farcical. The PE must be about 8! Meanwhile all existing holdings stay firmly locked in the bottom draw, only to be opened for the addition of new scrip. I also hear they have moved to new premises at North Ryde. Hopefully they are not unduly disrupted by the relocation.
  14. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: slayer on Wednesday 06/04/05 05:00pm I doubt it is QIC or AMP but a large long term holder who may be firing a warning shot across the PTD bows. They probably only sold a few hundred thousand yesterday with the rest due to stop loss triggering by unfortunates who were caught out. I didn't see any evidence of continued selling today, just a reaction by the rest of us. So they may have achieved their aim and flushed out the PTD press releases such as they were, particularly the Domantis release. In the end it will come down to active PTD support of the SP. If they don't pay more attention to ensuring the market is kept sufficiently enthused then this and perhaps other large holders will move elsewhere. I agree MO that a lot of information is readily available on the PTD/Domantis websites. But the reaction of the very interested shareholders who attended the AGM showed that most didn't have a clue what was being described. One of the presenters from memory even made that point by explaining in detail what an antibody was, and that approach was generally welcomed by the audience. Most investors want to see a sizeable appreciation of their holdings and are not greatly fussed by technical details, with most knowing little of the technology or how long it takes to do this sort of work. Therefore they need regular reminding of where things are and how the results are panning out. There is probably a general reluctance in most companies to pander to these requests. In the case of PTD it seems any announcement is ignored as a matter of course by being interpreted as a salve to the market rather than a genuine attempt to inform ie an announcement of sorts appears only reluctantly in reaction to market pressure. If they were more regularly forthcoming (and the newsletters are most welcome) then the good news of their meeting milestones would be better received. The story need not be the same as there are no doubt all sorts of nuances that can be added to keep the readers satisfied. I certainly agree that the SP is hopelessly undervalued but new buyers will only appear when they are properly informed and enthused about the (brilliant) prospects of the company.
  15. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: Oavde on Tuesday 05/04/05 05:39pm I agree with your sentiments Oavde but suspect other forces at work. The SP has been drifting inexorably lower since the disappointment over the small increase post J&J. I think today was the result of a decision by a large holder to sell out. This then triggered stop losses before UBS (and others wishing to go long) halted the slide. There may be animosity involved on the part of the seller/s. If so we shall see a repeat of the action tomorrow sometime when another series of large parcels suddenly appear at market. Today's response by PTD was too tame. Shareholders want something more tangible. If the large holders are thinking there are better games in town then PTD will get their 8 million shares by about COB Friday! All it would take to sooth these tortured souls is some simple to understand projections of where the various projects are. Specifically and including a list of the assumptions: what is the projected growth in sales and income for the vet products; what has happened to the anti-TNF dAb; what is Domantis doing (in fairly general terms) to progress their projects (and list them all); thus what size markets are being addressed by these various projects; what size markets are being addressed by Biosceptre projects and how are these progressing. At present the SP has a value component for all the above that is probably negative. Shareholders need some information (again with assumptions) that can convince them that they have invested in a valuable set of disparate technologies. Specifically, Domantis must soon be worth several hundred million dollars, ie a lot more than the PTD investment for a 36% share would suggest. How about telling us (and yes with assumptions). If projects have been delayed for sound technical or legal reasons then tell us in general terms that PTD has the matter in hand to the general benefit of shareholders. The information need not include commercially sensitive but the lack of information is being interpreted as wholly negative by an important group of shareholders. Their departure would not help PTD in the medium term although there may be some attractive buying opportunities for some of us who continue to hold the faith.
  16. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: Oavde on Friday 01/04/05 01:02am Hello Oavde. I suggest the probability that this report will have a meaningful influence on the arthritis market and specifically have a material effect on PTD is between nil and zero. This work has been around for a very long time - just read some of the old literature - and is timed, as usual, more for influence peddling than scientific reasons. No doubt there will be a grant application in submission and so it is time to trot out some old reports. That's the oldest game in town. If it's serious you won't hear about it until well down the development path and even then reports will be highly vetted. I hope PTD shareholders are too sophisticated to be fooled by these 'news' items, although looking at the SP one could wonder. Now the SP needs to be over $2 just to avoid the half cent increments associated with the old penny dreadfuls.
  17. jarm

    KIM

    In reply to: Long Haul on Tuesday 29/03/05 09:46am Thanks for that Long Haul. It agrees with all my information. SP should respond positively once the market is alerted to reality. Expect profits to be significantly enhanced as the production increases.
  18. jarm

    KIM

    In reply to: haspete on Wednesday 23/03/05 05:41pm Thanks Pete. Strong recovery today as many now see the SP oversold. Still believe they will have been taken over by the end of next year after production expansion is completed.
  19. jarm

    KIM

    Was that someone furiously shorting this morning? Can't see it working for long. You'll be swept away with the positive announcements due soon.
  20. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: slayer on Thursday 17/03/05 08:38am Sorry Slayer, I've been otherwise engaged, missed your post and have only just been PM'd. Please appreciate that I have very little expertise in these areas and in the last 6 months have drifted well away from old contacts who could regularly advise me. However, as I recall from extensive briefing notes, the Prima receptor acts upstream of TNFa and as such impacts on the supply of the latter. The PTD patents cover regulation of supply of the TNFa and thus I believe the Prima technology would infringe (or at least seriously raise questions). I have absolutely no idea what is in the thinking of PTD regarding acquisitions. I too have searched for likely partners, without success. There was a time when it seemed as if a UK partner would be preferred and this may still be the case. PTD you must appreciate is relatively small and already heavily involved in ongoing animal health areas that they have announced will be strengthened. Suprelorin will continue to be manufactured at their North Ryde facility and they have the resources to fully fund all manufacturing and distribution. Their other arm is devoted to the Domantis/Biosceptre projects we all know something about. I can't imagine how they could be expected to pick up anything else that wasn't fully contained and controlled by the other party. There are just not enough people and the projects appear extremely complicated. As unlisted public companies, both Domantis and Biosceptre have the luxury of non-disclosure that enables them to get on with their work without being hassled by people like us. The fact thet they have not needed to float is the strongest indication of their solid backing, ie they each have enough support to develop their programs without giving them away cheaply at an early stage. Most of the small biotechs are floundering because they did float too early (and were then ignored by most of us). PRR may well prove to be a winner as indeed may another 50 or so similar companies but I for one can't keep up with what PTD and partners are doing let alone another 50 small companies. I didn't like the idea of the dividend or the buyback but respect the company's right to make the decision. They are the only ones in possession of all the information. Maybe they have so much extra cash coming in that their board made the sound decision that PTD shares at the current price are the cheapest option around without having to spend valuable time and resources on due diligence. Maybe the new TNF dAb project is approaching the stage where yet another major license deals is in the offing. You refer to RA patient non-responders and this is certainly true as revealed in the PTD AGM presentations of recent years. The dAb on the other hand appears overwhelmingly superior to Remicade or Humira and is not covered by those licenses. The PTD resources appear obviously easily capable of fully funding early clinical trials of this new dAb. I have no idea why the delay but it could well be imminent. No doubt a major Pharma will be frothing in anticipation of getting their hands on it as it will probably prove to be worth several $billion pa and will restart the patents so the existing $200-400 million they will get from J&J and ABT before the patents run out will then be replaced by a (much larger) royalty from the new dAb since it will be PTD's drug and not just a question of some low licensing deal (at 1% or so). This should make PTD's income increase 4-5 fold in 2012 or so, all being well. Add to that the Biosceptre projects, also associated with Domantis. Any success in these areas will be worth even more, again if they make their own drug rather than just licensing access to a target. All this ignores the added benefit of as major share in Domantis and its other projects. I have said before that I believe Domantis will be worth nearly $1 billion within as little as 3 years when the phase II trials come to fruition and so the PTD share (following the expected NASDAQ float) will be worth more than the current SP alone. All this indicates that PTD already has a full larder and unless any merger partner adds value to the existing structure there may be too great a risk of distraction from the current wealth generation tasks. I think these projects have such a great chance of success, based on the many sets of data already released and given that application of the technology is now straitforward and well-trodden if time consuming, that it is better to stay fully focussed. No doubt there are many approaches from small companies wanting to merge but in the end someone in PTD has to study these in detail and in so doing they risk dropping the ball with the line wide open so why bother? Having expressed my opinions I would not be surprised if they turn around and announce a merger on Monday, but as of this morning this is the best I can do. Agree AGX missed a good opportunity but their hands were tied. Now after dumping all their non-core peripherals like Milton they may recover quite quickly, perhaps not as much as if the PTD merger had progressed but to be honest I think PTD is a lot better off without them for all the above reasons.
  21. jarm

    KIM

    In reply to: JMH03 on Thursday 17/03/05 08:13am Haven't thoroughly perused it but it seems in line with expectations. The losses are now minimal and the future expansion fully funded with guaranteed sales. Increased throughput should see a very significant increase in profit, which we have been waiting on. I'm adding to holdings again.
  22. jarm

    KIM

    Suspect AMP is continuing to add - may have 50% to go or another 5-10 million shares so someone knows something.
  23. jarm

    KIM

    Another healthy close with concerted efforts to buy at the end. Might see 1.17 resistance approached this week as large players are taking increasingly strong positions. Once breached the next stop may well be 1.60 although not holding my breath. Supporting announcement should underpin the price with continued resource discovery of high grade coupled with stronger prices and volumes.
  24. jarm

    AAH

    Another large dump on the close at a 2c discount. Persistent are they not? Still desperate to lose it would appear - must be just spreading largesse around in a kindly fashion - nothing underhanded at all in their agenda! In reply to Oavde, I doubt that Domantis shares are for sale at anything like an affordable price for PTD. I missed the roadshow but was informed that the Domantis CEO responded to an analyst's questioning of why a large Pharma had not bought in to Domantis with the response that they were excluded. Another 14% share of Domantis is likely to fetch $50M+ by now (if the holders were even willing to sell, which I doubt). Once we hear that a dAb is being readied for trial the price should respond quickly (assuming PTD still exists - I'm still not convinced). Also agree the takeover price would be 2-3 times the current price but that would be disappointing if the potential cannot be reached after all this time in the company's shares.
  25. jarm

    AAH

    BC got his/her wish of a buyback to put a floor under the SP. Still little reaction so the concerted seller remains active. Could someone explain why the concerted seller would be choosing to sell at a price lower than what could otherwise be achieved? If not an initial takeover skirmish then what? Still suspect it is mate A selling to mate B and vice versa. Where's our friend from the ASA? Confirms PTD has cash to burn and thus may not be bothered with M&A in medium term. Existing projects sound the best game in town anyway.
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