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jarm

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  1. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: king louie on Monday 08/08/05 04:08pm More likely to be another large holder attempting to shake out the loose holders. The pattern suggests they are selling down their own holdings (to themselves in the main) in order to increase their overall position. Loose holders (particularly those interested in selling at the 70c level) who fall for that old trick probably deserve the treatment.
  2. jarm

    AAH

    Has the buyback ceased? If so does this indicate M&A activity is back on the agenda (if it ever departed?). A small sentiment shift, combined with the departure of a persistent seller, could see the stock valuation returning to more realistic levels in the next month closer to $2. I still feel the stock is heavily undervalued (even at $2).
  3. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: dnatron on Tuesday 26/07/05 04:56pm For those concerned about rival technologies just remember that TXT is as big as they come. Microsoft has rivals but so what? TZL will have long departed these shores in the short-medium term let alone several years down the track when any putative rival technology can challenge them. Meanwhile the sp is recovering on thinnish trade with holders reticent to lose any of their increasingly valuable holdings. I expect the price to be a small multiple of the current valuation by years end so will definitely be holding.
  4. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    Further recognition obtained from NASA. When will the local market as a whole catch up with the news that this company has serious and realised potential? I guarantee we will lose it through that lack of recognition (and no doubt pay a premium on the resultant imports of their technology - free trade or no free trade). Seriously depressing!
  5. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: theadder on Wednesday 20/07/05 10:06am Just got the call about the Biosceptre/PTD/Domantis ann. They don't make these sorts of commitments lightly so the target must be reliable in all their bench work. Good news for cancer sufferers (and no doubt all us long-term holders).
  6. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    This fledgling is about to leave the nest. I wager that none of the escrow shares are sold next month unless the price has more than doubled.
  7. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: AgentCooper on Sunday 17/07/05 03:25pm I agree, my wording was imprecise - I meant to indicate my belief that the technological applications would be worth billions - and I do not resile from that. However, as I intimated, but with insufficient clarity, I do not believe TZL will even be around in 5 years, at least in Australia. Whether others supplant or replace them in that time is not discernible but at the current time I feel they are well placed, especially given the strong support of Textron. I think the position will become much clearer in the next few months.
  8. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: lancelots on Saturday 16/07/05 05:05pm I still like the miners after 40 years trading but TZL and other similar high tech outfits are a cut above. In reply to utb/dnatron, I expressed doubts that TZL would remain listed on the ASX. Fundamentally, why would they bother when almost all their business is offshore and the returns from a NASDAQ float would be closer to a sensible valuation (ie several fold higher than the current price). So either they will be taken out by a company or group of companies who can see the immediate upside - this technology will be worth untold billions within 5 years in automotive, computing, aerospace as well as more mundane applications - or else they ally themselves with Textron (and others) as a protector/s and then delist from the ASX. I guess that we would be offered an underwritten price for our holdings in the latter event or as dnatron says offered a proportional NASDAQ parcel. Either way it is hard to see them being around at 50 cents in a year or even 6 months at the rate the new deals are occurring. Mind you I have been known to be surprised in the past! Perhaps not with this one though.
  9. jarm

    TZL - TZ LIMITED

    In reply to: lancelots on Friday 15/07/05 02:25pm You will find this and other small companies with good stories to tell slipping under the radar in Australia. Perhaps the application is simply too large to grasp. Textron and other likely mega-companies utilizing the technology will absorb TZL entirely, remembering anti-monopoly laws will limit individual shares. I doubt whether the company will even stay in Australia since 99% of its business will be offshore. We will see a shift to the NASDAQ in months quite likely and probably a delisting here. Any market that does not recognize the obvious potential of this company does not deserve it!
  10. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: bloodclot on Friday 24/06/05 05:55pm To Bloodclot, Adder and others Sorry, I am often away these days. The reports have stated that the target is found on more than 80% (or even 95% in some reports) of all cancer types. This indicates that coverage is several-fold more extensive than any other target. It does not indicate that only 80% of cancer cells in an individual tumour are targeted - that would presumably be useless. On the contrary, a target that covers more than a single clone in an individual patient will be fantastic news as many patients suffer from the growth of several different clones (ie the tumour is undifferentiated) and thus the (usually ineffective) treatment is the old sledgehammer approach of chemotherapy/radiotherapy following surgery where indicated. It is still not clear what the precise target is from the announcements. It may be p2x7 but I cannot find a clear statement - in fact they specifically refused to say when asked. The patents appear to cover all sorts of receptors but some papers indicate it might be p2x7. Publications appear to have receded so they are obviously deliberately keeping quiet. This alone should indicate that they are not into spruiking. I agree BC that an announcement that they are making an imaging molecule (maybe dAb as you say) will be BIG. The potential market for a workable in vivo diagnostic that picks up primary and secondary tumours from different organs would have to worth many $billions pa. Let alone therapeutic applications. Good to see verifications of the original claims are now being released. This appears too big for the market to see. Look at the size of the recently approved cancer immunotherapeutics like Herceptin. It is currently being trialled in a couple of other indications besides breast cancer, is already a $billion and growing and only works on a small percentage of breast cancers. Any drug that even works on all breast cancers would be worth ten times more and any drug that targets a broad spectrum of other cancer types (bowel, breast, lung and so on) would be ten times larger again. Add your own figures with all the appropriate discounts. Even very conservative estimates and probabilities of success (constantly increasing) lead to very large income numbers. Is this just too big for the market to comprehend?
  11. jarm

    KIM

    May not be much holding the stock back from the $1.60s again. Fundamentals improved since these prices last visited and resistance at $1.15-1.18 looks broken. Wonder whether AMP is acting for someone and whether the interest may increase towards 15% in anticipation of an offer in the next 6 months.
  12. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: Oavde on Saturday 21/05/05 11:40am I have a medium-long term hold on PTD and am happy for the chance to acquire while squaring away surplus under-performers at the end of FY. I have no illusions that anything I say in support of the stock will influence the SP as the last year or so will attest! Whether the SP rises back to $2 is irrelevant to me as I am expecting several-fold more in the medium term and thus am not about to trade. Obviously others like to play the volatility, as I do in many other stocks, but I think PTD is safer in the hands of the true believers. The potential of the projects gives it special status in my opinion and thus I treat it with a certain reverence that is entirely lacking from all other hard-headed decisions I make about holding or selling. About a third of us will die from diseases that may be alleviated if the promise is realised and the remainder of us will be personally affected. That kind of focusses my mind. It is not as if its another miner or bank or widget maker. The output actually matters. Imagine being on the ground floor with a stock that makes a potential mega-difference. I have been reading back through some of the (hundreds) of postings made over the last several weeks. Some investors had been margin-lending it appears. I never do this with a biotech and really the company is well served by the replacement of these investors if it removes short-term pressure to announce interim results. I can't see any reason for the decline other than herd effects, although I too have been guilty of impatience at times in wanting such results released. If people lose on that basis I'm sorry for them but it just translates into more opportunities for the true believers. I should also add that the molecules in question here can take years to actually manufacture. It appears that this lengthy process is complete in all or most of their primary projects. Testing is likely to take less time than tweaking molecular design parameters so major milestones that markets await may not be far off. Remember that most of the drugs have the same format so most of the FDA approval protocols are fast-tracked now. It is only the target site that needs approval and so this process means you save up to 5 years in comparison with the approval times needed for a small molecule drug.
  13. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: theadder on Friday 20/05/05 07:46pm Hello Adder, I've been away for 6 weeks and found chaos reigns once again. I know the biotech sector has taken a bath but the current price is laughable. I shall be transferring underperforming assets in other sectors into Peptech next week at these attractive prices I never thought I'd see again. The CAT details are an interesting illustration of the royalty stacking applying to mAbs. CAT has charged 5% of sales, from which they pass on 3%. There may well be other payments of 2-4% payable by Abbott to other parties holding mAb IP as well as PTD with TNF IP. This shows the clear advantage of PTD's relationship with Domantis. Not only do they hold 36%, leading eventually to a one-third discount on royalties due on their drugs, but the royalty stacking will be significantly less, if not zero. So the deals they are able to sign with Domantis will cost them much less than Abbott were charged with CAT, perhaps only 4-5% of sales. This translates into double the income using dAbs rather than mAbs. They have 4 production slots guaranteed to them, one of which has already produced a TNF dAb entering clinical trials. The pre-trial results have already been announced showing clear superiority over Remicade and Humira in the standard industry models used as the arbiter of efficacy. This will fast track approval by the FDA and we will probably see Phase II completion in as little as 2 years followed by licensing to a (not Abbott/J&J) Pharma. By 2010 when the other patents run out the new drug will be ready and any significant superiority, say 20%, over existing drugs will result in rapid replacement. It appears that the new dAb is significantly better than this as it more efficiently sequesters TNF in circulation, being smaller or with better binding characteristics than the existing mAbs. Income should then increase perhaps 4-fold from existing royalty rate. Hopefully well before then the share of the other dozen or more Domantis targets will yield significant returns as they are licensed out for Phase II/III. That is assuming PTD and/or Domantis have not been taken out by a large Pharma. The Biosceptre projects are what attracted me to PTD in the first instance. A common target to even two or three major cancers will generate a phenomenal blockbuster. They still maintain almost ubiquitous coverage, the last I heard a couple of months ago. Trial results should start filtering out soon. If the detection rate is really high in tissue then we should have confidence that a drug will follow that will work. Income will exceed TNF by a long chalk. Just look at how much Herceptin brings in already for a sub-category of breast cancer. And this is their own drug remember so royalty rates are likely to be 10% not 1-2%. Even if they only matched the Herceptin income they would be worth over $100 million pa to each party in the JV. I've long since given up trying to predict markets, hence my spread over so many sectors, but this PTD price will soon enough be regarded as farcical. The PE must be about 8! Meanwhile all existing holdings stay firmly locked in the bottom draw, only to be opened for the addition of new scrip. I also hear they have moved to new premises at North Ryde. Hopefully they are not unduly disrupted by the relocation.
  14. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: slayer on Wednesday 06/04/05 05:00pm I doubt it is QIC or AMP but a large long term holder who may be firing a warning shot across the PTD bows. They probably only sold a few hundred thousand yesterday with the rest due to stop loss triggering by unfortunates who were caught out. I didn't see any evidence of continued selling today, just a reaction by the rest of us. So they may have achieved their aim and flushed out the PTD press releases such as they were, particularly the Domantis release. In the end it will come down to active PTD support of the SP. If they don't pay more attention to ensuring the market is kept sufficiently enthused then this and perhaps other large holders will move elsewhere. I agree MO that a lot of information is readily available on the PTD/Domantis websites. But the reaction of the very interested shareholders who attended the AGM showed that most didn't have a clue what was being described. One of the presenters from memory even made that point by explaining in detail what an antibody was, and that approach was generally welcomed by the audience. Most investors want to see a sizeable appreciation of their holdings and are not greatly fussed by technical details, with most knowing little of the technology or how long it takes to do this sort of work. Therefore they need regular reminding of where things are and how the results are panning out. There is probably a general reluctance in most companies to pander to these requests. In the case of PTD it seems any announcement is ignored as a matter of course by being interpreted as a salve to the market rather than a genuine attempt to inform ie an announcement of sorts appears only reluctantly in reaction to market pressure. If they were more regularly forthcoming (and the newsletters are most welcome) then the good news of their meeting milestones would be better received. The story need not be the same as there are no doubt all sorts of nuances that can be added to keep the readers satisfied. I certainly agree that the SP is hopelessly undervalued but new buyers will only appear when they are properly informed and enthused about the (brilliant) prospects of the company.
  15. jarm

    AAH

    In reply to: Oavde on Tuesday 05/04/05 05:39pm I agree with your sentiments Oavde but suspect other forces at work. The SP has been drifting inexorably lower since the disappointment over the small increase post J&J. I think today was the result of a decision by a large holder to sell out. This then triggered stop losses before UBS (and others wishing to go long) halted the slide. There may be animosity involved on the part of the seller/s. If so we shall see a repeat of the action tomorrow sometime when another series of large parcels suddenly appear at market. Today's response by PTD was too tame. Shareholders want something more tangible. If the large holders are thinking there are better games in town then PTD will get their 8 million shares by about COB Friday! All it would take to sooth these tortured souls is some simple to understand projections of where the various projects are. Specifically and including a list of the assumptions: what is the projected growth in sales and income for the vet products; what has happened to the anti-TNF dAb; what is Domantis doing (in fairly general terms) to progress their projects (and list them all); thus what size markets are being addressed by these various projects; what size markets are being addressed by Biosceptre projects and how are these progressing. At present the SP has a value component for all the above that is probably negative. Shareholders need some information (again with assumptions) that can convince them that they have invested in a valuable set of disparate technologies. Specifically, Domantis must soon be worth several hundred million dollars, ie a lot more than the PTD investment for a 36% share would suggest. How about telling us (and yes with assumptions). If projects have been delayed for sound technical or legal reasons then tell us in general terms that PTD has the matter in hand to the general benefit of shareholders. The information need not include commercially sensitive but the lack of information is being interpreted as wholly negative by an important group of shareholders. Their departure would not help PTD in the medium term although there may be some attractive buying opportunities for some of us who continue to hold the faith.
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