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  1. Today
  2. Growth stocks have been punished, especially at the smaller and less liquid end of the market. Think of sectors like healthcare, discretionary retail and tech. But what does that look like in terms of numbers? Glad you asked, as our friends at Deep Data Analytics have recently crunched the numbers and it is not pretty. No doubt many Livewire readers will have had some high growth names on the wishlist, but couldn’t stomach the valuations. So, we invited small cap specialists Josh Clark from QVG Capital and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management to see if a selection of market darlings are cheap enough to get them interested. James Marlay: Slightly different tack now, we are going for City Chic Collective. It must have been one of the most popular and well earned retailers in the market. Buy, hold, or sell? It is down 60% in 2022. Josh Clark (HOLD): That is brutal. It is painful just to think about. It is a hold for me, City Chic. It looks way too cheap. If they can continue their previous growth trajectory, then you would buy it. But naturally, it is down for a reason. They have got a lot of inventory coming into the balance sheet, so that is going to weaken the balance sheet. I think the jury is still out in terms of what gross profit margin they are going to be able to clear that inventory at, how long it is going to take them and what the balance sheet is going to look like on the other side of that. So I think those question marks mean that you need to hold off for the moment. You probably need to see a result or two for some evidence. There are a lot of other things to like, but for the moment, I think it is just a hold. James Marlay: Hold on City Chic. Buy, hold or sell for you, Gary? Gary Rollo (SELL): I can make a case for all three, but if I had to pick one, I would say it is a sell now. Now, this is a quality small cap and I think you mentioned the point that most small cap [investors] look at that business and say they want to own it, and we are no different. But we are not in normal markets right now. We are in an area, the consumer discretionary area, that is an area where you are going to have significant uncertainty on demand to play out. You have to ask yourself if you want to take that on, even in a stock that you would like to get invested in. Our view at the moment is no, we will not take that on. We'll wait and come back another day to buy that business so that's what we have decided. It is a sell.
  3. To date, despite being in a sector that would, should and could deliver something, Redflow has disappointed. A Commercial Strategy Update came out in early May but the diaal did not move at the time. Recently, in the last week there appears to be some interest, maybe an insto accumulating, and the Share Price has moved from 3.6c to 5.3c and with increasing volume behind the movement
  4. still only 45c but the Fund Manager came through at the higher raise
  5. XTEKs HighCom Subsidiary Receives US$33.21m (A$46.8m) Order Key highlights: Purchase Order for urgent supply of specialist ballistic armour worth US$33.21m (A$46.8m) Multiple shipments scheduled for delivery over coming weeks Ballistic armour contracts since 01 March 22 now total A$64.4m Total Group new contracts since 01 March 22 now exceeds A$69.5m
  6. 07 March 2022: Purchase Order from an undisclosed customer to the value of A$2.75m for the urgent supply of specialist ballistic armour products. 09 March 2022: Purchase order totalling A$2.75m from the Commonwealth of Australia Department of Defence, for “Wasp” Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (SUAS) systems. 24 March 2022: Purchase Order for the urgent supply of specialist ballistic armour products from an undisclosed international customer to the value of A$3.2m. 04 April 2022: Purchase Orders worth a combined value of A$2.35m for specialist ballistic armour products. 26 May 2022: Purchase Order for the rapid supply of HighCom body armour products from an undisclosed customer to the value of $9.5m XTE share price has more than doubled since the war in Ukraine began.
  7. Talga battery anode growth ambitions boosted with 54% graphite resource increase Critical mineral source grows to secure EU Li ion battery supply chain Vittangi Graphite Resource boosted by 54%, adding more than 10 million tonnes to Europe’s largest graphite resource, a critical mineral for lithium ion batteries Further resource update planned for late H2 2022 following recently completed drilling program
  8. Growth stocks have been punished, especially at the smaller and less liquid end of the market. Think of sectors like healthcare, discretionary retail and tech. But what does that look like in terms of numbers? Glad you asked, as our friends at Deep Data Analytics have recently crunched the numbers and it is not pretty. No doubt many Livewire readers will have had some high growth names on the wishlist, but could not stomach the valuations. So, we invited small cap specialists Josh Clark from QVG Capital and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management to see if a selection of market darlings are cheap enough to get them interested. Josh Clark (BUY): IDP Education is a buy. You are right. The PE is huge. If you look at it on this year's earnings, you'll freak yourself out, so don't do that. But that is ignoring the fact that earnings over a two year basis have the potential to double or thereabouts. Then beyond there, you have still got a durable growth business that is globally dominant in what they do, with a long runway ahead. They are picking up market share in every market that they are in. There is the potential for future deals, similar to the British Council deal that they have done, that could add value over and above what I have described. So I think that multiple comes down quickly enough, such that you do not need to worry too much about this year multiple. I think you have got a bit of visibility into those earnings so that one is a buy for me. James Marlay: Okay, Gary, can you get over the multiple? Look to year two and year three ... Buy, hold, or a sell on IDP? Gary Rollo (BUY): We are a Buy. I think IDP is one of those stocks that you can look at and say, "Look, there is enough there to forgive the valuation." If you are going to get involved in a high valuation growth stock now, it's got to have a big market, a competitive advantage and market or industry conditions that allow market share to seed their way. With the reopening, we would expect English language testing and international student placement to really start kicking off again. And those universities around the world, well, they have not had the worlds best time of it. They are going to want students at scale to arrive at their universities for courses. IEL are the best to help them with that. So for us, we think there will be fantastic growth in the short run on reopening and then longer run, you've got the market share winner here. If you are going to commit a valuation sin, commit it with this one.
  9. Growth stocks have been punished, especially at the smaller and less liquid end of the market. Think of sectors like healthcare, discretionary retail and tech. But what does that look like in terms of numbers? Glad you asked, as our friends at Deep Data Analytics have recently crunched the numbers and it isn’t pretty. No doubt many Livewire readers will have had some high growth names on the wishlist, but could not stomach the valuations. So, we invited small cap specialists Josh Clark from QVG Capital and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management to see if a selection of market darlings are cheap enough to get them interested. James Marlay: Well, we might be onto another sinner Pro Medicus. I have never had anyone tell me they think this stock looks cheap. It is down 40% year to date. Is it cheap enough now? Buy, hold, or a sell? Gary Rollo (SELL): Not cheap enough. It is a sell. Look, Pro Medicus is the inverse of what we just talked about with IDP. Great business, but the opportunity they are prosecuting just is not big enough to give you a long enough runway to amortise that valuation envelope you are taking on. Don't take that opportunity. Buy IDP instead. It's a sell. James Marlay: Its PE gone from three digits to two digits, Josh. Can you break my run of no one telling me Pro Medicus is cheap enough? Buy, hold or sell? Josh Clark (SELL): Pro Medicus is on something like a 78 times pre tax earnings multiple from here, and it's just too hard to wrap your head around how you can get enough growth out of that business to justify that multiple. I mean, there's other businesses , notably technology businesses, out there that trade on those kinds of eye watering multiples, but then I do not think they are necessarily a fair comparison because there are a lot of businesses that have been reinvesting through the profit and loss statement and earning 0% margin. Pro Medicus is already I think it is around 65% margin. So their world class margin is already a very profitable business. It is going to be quite hard for them to grow their earnings much faster than revenue from here. I do not think you can get there on the valuation, so a sell.
  10. Kingsland Minerals Ltd (KNG) is a mineral exploration and development company with a focus on Australian high grade uranium, copper and gold projects, including the acquisition of attractive exploration and development resource projects. The Company projects comprise the following: (a) Allamber uranium and copper project in the Northern Territory; (b) Shoobridge uranium and gold project in the Northern Territory; (c) Woolgni gold project in the Northern Territory; (d) Mt Davis copper and gold project in the Northern Territory; and (e) Lake Johnston Nickel and Cobalt Project in Western Australia. Listing date 31 May 2022 11:00 AM AEST ## Company contact details https://kingslandminerals.com.au/ Principal Activities Mineral exploration and development Issue Price AUD 0.20 Issue Type Ordinary Fully Paid Shares Security code KNG Capital to be Raised $5,500,000 Expected offer close date 18 May 2022 Underwriter Not underwritten. Westar Capital Ltd (Lead Manager).
  11. Yesterday
  12. and looking to open higher today
  13. ASX futures up 69 points or 0.97 per cent to 7176 AUD +0.07% to 70.94 US cents Bitcoin -0.9% to $US29,446.96 On Wall St: Dow +1.6% ; S&P 500 +2% ; Nasdaq +2.7% In Europe: Stoxx 50 +1.7% ; FTSE +0.6% ; CAC +1.8% ; DAX +1.6% Spot gold -0.2% to $US1849.83 oz Brent crude +2.9% to $US117.32 a barrel US oil +3.4% to $US114.06 a barrel Iron ore -1.6% to $US131.25 a tonne 2 year yield: US 2.47% ; Australia 2.34% 5 year yield: US 2.70% ; Australia 2.93% 10 year yield: US 2.74% ; Australia 3.20% ; Germany 0.99%
  14. Assays from 2021 drilling not included in current Mineral Resource Estimate Update Mineral Resource due H1 2022 Conversion of inferred resource within the pit envelope Drill results in the South West and South East of the current pit Metallurgical optimisation of reagents Optimisation of leach times Resource drilling to the South East still open
  15. and another 50% on today, coming out of a Trading Halt. Now $1.42 • All drill holes at the Callisto discovery return significant sulphide mineralisation with RC drill assays confirming palladium platinum gold copper nickel intercepts over wide intervals; • Strong geological continuity between all drill holes with sulphides occurring at the base of an ultramafic sill • Reported assays all occur within wider disseminated sulphide zones indicating the potential for a large mineralised system .
  16. Some media comment ... TLC still doing the sideways shuffle, now $4.56 The nature of The Lottery Corporation’s long-dated monopoly licences and its steady, defensive cash flows give it infrastructure like qualities that should lead it to eventually trade at a higher earnings multiple than Tabcorp did. Before the demerger, Tabcorp was trading on an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 12 times, whereas Macquarie values The Lottery Corporation at 17.6 times. But recent history suggests the board and management could soon find themselves fending off a takeover advance. Not only are infrastructure and infrastructure like businesses frequently the targets of big investors such as superannuation funds and private capital firms, but demerged companies have also been popular takeover targets; analysis of 28 demergers by Perpetual found one of the two companies created in these splits was acquired within a few years on no less than 18 occasions.
  17. Last week
  18. nipper

    UVA - UVRE LIMITED

    Uvre Limited (UVA) is a mineral exploration company focused on pursuing uranium, vanadium and other energy and new world mineral opportunities (i.e. technology and low emission related minerals essential to the decarbonisation and electrification of the global economy). The Company has agreed to acquire Vanacorp Aust Pty Ltd, the beneficial owner of 100% of the East Canyon Uranium Vanadium Project in Utah, from Red Dirt Metals Limited (RDT). The East Canyon uranium-vanadium project comprises 231 contiguous claims (~4,620 acres/18.7km2) prospective for uranium and vanadium in the Dry Valley/ East Canyon mining district of south eastern Utah, USA (the Claims). The Uravan Mineral Belt and surrounding Salt Wash ore producing districts of the Colorado Plateau, which hosts the Claims, has been an important source of uranium and vanadium in the US for more than 100 years, with historic production of more than 85 million pounds of uranium at an average grade of more than 0.13% U₃O₈ and more than 440 million pounds of vanadium at an average grade of 1.25% V₂O₅. Listing date 30 May 2022 ; 11:00 AM AEST ## Company contact details https://uvrelimited.com/ Principal Activities Mining exploration Issue Price AUD 0.20 Issue Type Ordinary Fully Paid Shares Security code UVA Capital to be Raised $6,000,000 Expected offer close date 17 May 2022 Underwriter Not underwritten. JP Equity Holdings Pty Ltd (Lead Manager).
  19. nipper

    CNJ - CONICO LIMITED

    And another 80% today. Clearly the money that took up the rights shortfall would be very happy.
  20. SLC has a conditional sale and purchase agreement to acquire Acurus Holdings Pty Ltd, a Melbourne based white label and technology firm. The acquisition will allow Superloop to expand white label broadband relationships and profitable growth in its subscriber base. Costing AU$15 million, comprising AU$12 million in cash and AU$3 million in SLC shares. The vendors may also be entitled to earn out payments Acurus offers white label platform and services that support the Internet offerings behind major brands such as Energy Australia and OfficeWorks. Other household brands, including Bakers Delight, Zen Energy, Roy Morgan and Hume Bank, have accessed Acurus Managed service offerings, SD WAN and Cyber Security Services. ........................... Some assistance to the slumping share price, from 79c to 82c today. Also the CEO doing the rounds of conferences. A presentation spells out the opportunities and challenges ahead The conditions are in place and challengers are shaking up the Australian internet market But really, all up the aim is for a subset of the 30% they see on offer, and likely will only get 5% of ICT market. What that implies is trying to double earnings and leverage the EBITDA to Cash Conversion ratio (revenue growth whilst broadly maintaining Opex & Capex envelopes). Shareholders would like to see that
  21. and all over .... On 25 May, 2022, Isignthis Ltd (ISX) changed its name and ASX code to Southern Cross Payment Ltd (SP1).
  22. and that big move; went from 2c to 20c in late March but TEM has given most of it back. Now under 5c Raised $8million in April at 8.5c from sophs and instos. Oh well.
  23. The Woodside / BHP Petroleum merger is on track to be finalised on 01/06/2022 .... and new code WDS Woodside Energy Group commences trading on the ASX 02/06/2022. Meanwhile, all current BHP shareholders as of close of business today i.e. 24/05/2022 will receive 1 free WPL (soon to be WDS) share for every 5.534 BHP shares held (as of c.o.b 24/05/2022)
  24. nipper

    CNJ - CONICO LIMITED

    and gave it back just as quickly, now 2.4c. Going to need to do some work and that involves money
  25. Tabcorp spinoff Lottery Corp is trading at $4.61 per share near lunchtime after the lotteries and Keno business hit the ASX boards at 11am. Lottery Corp stock has swung between $4.49 and $4.69 at the open bids for a business that boasts high profit margins. According to a presentation, on a pro forma basis Lottery Corp posted $611 million in EBITDA on revenue of $3.2 billion in the year ended last June 30.
  26. Bangladesh recovered from 5/24 to be 5/277 at the end of the day. Great effort and records broken. Cheers J
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